09:49 08 Apr 2023

US documents release reveals russian fear of Ukrainian counteroffensive – ISW

In the information space of the russian federation, there is a fear of a future Ukrainian counteroffensive, as russian supporters of the war reacted with concern to the secret documents of the United States and NATO on the preparation of Ukraine's armed forces published on social networks.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported this in its review.

The New York Times reported that analysts said over one hundred files might have been uploaded to the web.

Part of the secret documents, which probably detail US national security secrets regarding Ukraine, the Middle East, and China, have reappeared on social networks.

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War analyzed this event and stated:

"Regardless of the veracity of the reportedly leaked documents, which ISW will not speculate on, the response of Russian military bloggers to the New York Times story highlights the fear of prospective Ukrainian counteroffensives pervading the Russian pro-war information space.

Therefore, the New York Times story has exposed a significant point of neuralgia in the Russian information space, and responses to the documents suggest that Russian military bloggers may be increasingly reconsidering the validity of their own assessments and speculations regarding any potential Ukrainian counteroffensives and their ability to forecast Ukrainian operations," the message reads.

ISW experts noted that several well-known russian bloggers denied the authenticity of the documents. They assumed that this was disinformation intended to confuse and mislead the russian military command.

The institute also drew attention to Bellingcat analyst Aric Toler's message that the documents were circulating online as early as March 4. However, for some reason, they got into the leading Western media only a month later.

For reference:

On April 7, the NYT reported that classified military documents detailing US and NATO plans to build up the Ukrainian army ahead of a planned counteroffensive appeared on Twitter and Telegram.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, called the "leaked" materials "photoshop" and joked about the degradation of russian intelligence.


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