Russian forces try to destabilize Ukraine's defenses and prepare for new offensive – ISW
Photo: Ukraine's Defense Intelligence
Russian forces are preparing for a new offensive in the summer of 2024, as they will continue their offensive to destabilize Ukrainian defense lines.
The latest ISW report suggests Russian troops are likely to continue offensives to destabilize Ukrainian positions in the spring of 2024, while also preparing for a projected new offensive this summer.
The ISW believes that Western security assistance is likely to play a crucial role in Ukraine's ability to defend itself.
Russian troops are trying to maintain the pace of their offensive operations in eastern Ukraine to prevent Kyiv's forces from stabilizing their defensive lines.
Russia is particularly focused on pushing as far west as possible from Avdiivka before Ukrainian forces can establish a line in the area that will be harder to break.
Ukraine's army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on March 15 that Russian troops had concentrated their efforts in the Avdiivka area and were conducting daily attacks in an attempt to break through the Ukrainian defense.
Although Ukrainian forces have recently slowed down the advance of Russian troops west of Avdiivka, widespread logistical shortages are forcing Ukraine to focus limited resources on critical areas of the front.
Experts note that Russian forces will continue to use the advantages of having the initiative to dynamically redeploy their offensive efforts this spring and summer, likely in the hope of exploiting possible Ukrainian vulnerabilities.
Ukrainian and Western officials have noted a significant shortage of Ukrainian recourses, and a new large-scale Russian offensive this summer.
Wth the allying assistance, Ukraine will be able to stabilize the front line more and prepare to repel Russian offensives.
A severe shortage of air defense systems and missiles is likely to sharply reduce Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian attacks both in the rear and on the front lines in the coming weeks if not addressed quickly.
Russian forces have recently made efforts to strain Ukrainian air defenses both in rear areas and along the front line.
"A 60% reduction in Ukraine's ability to engage Russian missiles would further exacerbate these capability gaps. ISW estimates that the United States remains the only direct source of needed air defense systems such as Patriot."
