Guarantors instead of NATO: Who can protect Ukraine from the Kremlin?
The negotiations of Ukrainian and russian delegations have continued since the first week of the war, but only on March 29, specificity came to light. After a regular meeting in Istanbul, the Ukrainian representatives released the project of the treaty with russia.
Among other things, the treaty object is Ukraine's refusal to join NATO and non-aligned status in exchange for direct security guarantees from a number of countries. As long as the negotiations continue (today another round is to take place), we will tell how this agreement can work, whether the fights will cease during the negotiations and whether someone has agreed to defend our security.
What is the problem?
There is the thirty-seventh day of a full-scale war with russia in Ukraine. At the same time, negotiations between the Ukrainian and russian sides are continuing. We will have to negotiate with the aggressor state in one way or another – the question is about what and on what terms. And which measures will be taken to ensure security for Ukraine? For such reasons, the object of the treaty with russia and the guarantees for the security of Ukraine was created. This project is not the only possible option, but it is worth considering what it means.
What is the solution?
The Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul is negotiating a number of issues, the key among them is the agreement in accordance to which a number of countries will be able to defend our country in case of an attack. In short, it should be a substitute for NATO membership.
"Today we meet a question of the existence of international security guarantees for Ukraine, which would be working and specific. Not the same as the not working Budapest Memorandum," the head of our delegation Davyd Arakhamia explained earlier. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the same intentions.
Our diplomats see the agreement as follows: If Ukraine is attacked, the guarantor countries will have three days for consultations. And then they will have to help Kyiv, in particular, to supply modern weapons, to close the sky over our country, or to introduce its troops to defend Ukraine.
These mechanisms, according to Arakhamia, should be spelled out clearly and even more harshly than in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which obliges member states to protect one another. Ukrainians say in one voice: the guarantees have to be clearly detailed and mandatory.
Anything to avoid repeating the mistake of the Budapest Memorandum, where our country received only abstract "assurances." So in 2014 Western partners did not actually protect Ukraine from russian aggression.
The keyword is "have to be" because no agreement has been signed yet, and this agreement is our proposal. They were messaged to russians but the kremlin has not given an official response yet (though the discussions are held not for the first week, so it is likely that many demands of the aggressor country have already been taken into account). Negotiations are still in progress. By the way, there is no specific text of the treaty.
Similarly, the negotiations in Istanbul and the russian statements on "the withdrawal of troops from Kyiv and Chernihiv directions" do not mean the cessation of fire. Instead, the Ukrainian army banished the invaders from the Bucha district, and freed Sloboda and Lukashovka in Chernihiv region, five villages in Zaporizhzhia and 11 villages in Kherson region from russians.
Davyd Arakhamia also assures that the authorities will not advise the Armed Forces of Ukraine to stop or not to touch the enemy during the negotiations. "We said at first that we did not influence the military officers with our negotiations. They do their work, free our land. If there are successes, we, of course, try to use it as a counter-argument and to develop the best positions at once," he said.
"No one is slowing down or stopping. There is one command – counteroffensive and liberation of our lands, and politics is an auxiliary mechanism," confirms the ex-People's Deputy Volodymyr Parasiuk, who now serves in the Armed Forces.
How does it work?
(If it works)
In exchange for guarantees, Ukraine promises to refuse to join NATO and to remain a non-aligned and neutral state like Switzerland. A similar security model exists: Taiwan and Japan are not members of the North Atlantic Alliance, but have security guarantees from the US. If China attacks one of them, Americans promise to intervene.
There are no restrictions on accession to the EU on the apparent benefits of this agreement. Moreover, all the signing countries should also help Ukraine to join the EU as soon as possible. In the same way, "de-militarization" and "de-Nazification" disappeared from the project.
However, a lot will depend on specific formulas in the military sphere. Our delegation is ready to promise that Ukraine will not host NATO military bases, and joint training on its territory will be conducted only with the consent of russia and other countries. Will we abandon the alliance with Poland and Britain? Will Ukrainian military training be available in other countries? Is the arrival of the Alliance instructors (who train our military) to the Yavoriv polygon a training? So far, all the questions are left without answers.
In any case, the Ukrainian-russian agreement will not be concluded in Istanbul in the coming days. The process will be long because the presidents of the two countries should meet and put their signatures. In addition, all the guarantors shall give their consent.
What about the referendum?
Without a referendum, there will be no agreement, – Mykhailo Podoliak
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already promised: The question of compromises with the kremlin will be brought for a referendum all over Ukraine, and only then the agreement will be signed. It also takes a long time. And the course to NATO is laid down in the Constitution. It is impossible to change it (and for this purpose, it is still necessary to collect 300 votes in Verkhovna Rada), as well as to conduct referendums, during the military situation.
Formally, it can be canceled any day, but it will not help organize a referendum, for example, in Chernihiv or Kharkiv. In short, while the war continues, it is impossible to implement this plan. Therefore, Ukrainian delegates have repeatedly stated: First, the cease of fire, the russians go to the borders where they were before February 24, and only then the agreement.
What about guarantors?
But the main question now is whether other countries will agree to become guarantors of our security? None of them is obliged to do this and will risk seriously because in the case of a new putin attack and the country itself will be involved in the war. Even for closing the sky over Ukraine, it is necessary to destroy russian planes and missiles.
Ukraine has offered this status to the USA, China, Great Britain, France, Turkey, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland, and Israel. russia should also provide guarantees of our security.
The United States has the most powerful army, and only they can "close the sky" over Ukraine on their own. However, among American politicians, there are already debates, about to which extent Joe Biden should defend Taiwan from the attack of China. The question is whether the White House will agree to give a guarantee, which may lead to war with russia. For now, the Americans have made no statements.
Other countries are ready to talk about this, but with certain conditions. The British promise to "consider the issue," but have already said that their soldiers will not be sent to Ukraine. Previously Germany said "yes" but they are also ready only to guarantee, not to fight. Italy agreed to join: Yet also without specifics.
A few more potential guarantors generally want to be friends with putin. Yes, Turkey allegedly agreed. But it does not impose sanctions against russia and invites oligarchs from the aggressor country. russian gas and tourists are expected in Ankara. Israel has a similar position. They do not want to supply arms to Ukraine, but according to the Western media, they cooperate with the russian special services. China supports close ties with russia, and recently called to take into account russian "concerns in security issues."
The fact that no state has promised to enter the war on the side of Ukraine, is also worth considering by Ukrainian diplomats who plan to get guarantees, "tougher than Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty."
However, whatever negotiations the Ukrainian authorities may have, their outcome depends primarily on the situation on the battlefield. After all, russians began a war to destroy our state, and after a series of defeats from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, russians are ready to discuss neutrality and other conditions.
Therefore, all Ukrainians who want to make our peace agreement with russia more profitable are advised not to spend time on hot discussions on social media, but to help the army.
