12:51 30 Dec 2023

UK intelligence predicts Russia will lose up to 500,000 troops in Ukraine by 2025

As Russia's casualties multiply in 2023, the UK intelligence believes, total losses will amount up to 500,000 troops by 2025.

In 2023, the average daily loss of Russian personnel, killed and wounded, increased to almost 300 per day, which is more than in 2022.

"This increase in daily losses reported by the Ukrainian side is almost certainly evidence of the degradation of Russian forces and their transformation into a "mass army" of lower quality and higher numbers after the "partial mobilization" of reservists in September 2022. 

Russia will probably need 5-10 years to restore a cohort of highly professional and experienced units."

Analysts note that if the current rate of losses continues through 2024, Russia's losses in killed and wounded will reach more than half a million by 2025.

During the 9 years of USSR's participation in Afghanistan war, the state lost approximately 70,000 people.

Russian losses in Ukraine

The UK intelligence assessed the destruction of the Russian ship Novocherkassk, stating that 70 sailors went missing during the attack.

On the Avdiivka front, Russian troops continue to use "meat assaults" tactics to assault Ukrainian positions and encircle the town.

NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said in late November that since the beginning of the full-scale war, the Russian army has lost a significant part of its conventional forces, including hundreds of aircraft, thousands of tanks, and more than 300,000 soldiers.

The UK Secretary of Defense Grant Shapps noted that this episode refutes the allegations of an alleged "deadlock" in the war in Ukraine.


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