Russian forces threaten to seize Chasiv Yar, paving the way for continued offensive in Donetsk region – ISW
Photo: Facebook / General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces
Russian military forces present a real threat of seizing Chasiv Yar, although it may not be accomplished quickly. The capture of Chasiv Yar would enable the Russian army to launch additional military attacks against the strategically important cities in Ukraine's Donetsk region.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this.
Military analysts noted that Russian offensive operations west of Avdiivka could provide tactical advantages.
The Russian offensive operation to capture Chasiv Yar opens the nearest prospects for Russian troops to make an operationally significant advance.
The Russian troops in the Avdiivka region are still approximately 30 kilometers away from their intended target in Pokrovsk and about 17 kilometers away from the sizable villages to the east of Pokrovsk.
Even if Russian tactical gains force the Ukrainian military to retreat to positions further west, the current Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka will unlikely be operationally significant in the near term.
The Russian government is putting more pressure on Chasiv Yar. Russian troops, who are now positioned on the eastern edge of the city, have increased their efforts to take control of the city since March of 2024.
The offensive operation to capture Chasiv Yar will probably allow Russian troops to launch further offensive operations against the cities that form a significant defensive belt of Ukraine in the Donetsk region.
The Russian forces are probably attempting to capture as much land as they can before American security aid arrives. This infusion of weapons will greatly enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities in the next few weeks. The Russian military leadership may increase their offensive actions towards the northwest of Avdiivka, as this area presents more chances for swift tactical victories, even though these gains may not be strategically significant.
ISW Key Findings as of April 25:
- Russian forces are stabilizing their small salient northwest of Avdiivka. They may make further tactical gains that could cause Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka to a more defensible line.
- Russian offensive operations west of Avdiivka aim to exploit opportunities for tactical gains, while the Russian offensive operation to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances.
- US officials are reportedly worried that the latest package of US military aid to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to regain all of its territory. US military assistance is only part of what Ukraine currently needs, moreover. Still, Ukraine is itself working to address other war-fighting requirements—primarily human resources challenges and the expansion of its defense industrial base (DIB).
- Russian forces are reportedly fielding drones adapted to be more resilient against Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities on critical sectors of the frontline, likely in an attempt to leverage new technological capabilities to exploit a limited window before US security assistance arrives in Ukraine.
- A prominent Kremlin-awarded Russian military blogger channel announced that it opened a "media school" in the Balkans, likely supporting Kremlin efforts to expand its reach in the international information space.
- French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the importance of Europe's self-sufficiency for its defense and sovereignty during an April 25 speech.
- Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Siversk, and Russian troops recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia region border area.
- On April 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin justified Russia's ongoing efforts to nationalize Russian enterprises, including defense industrial base (DIB) enterprises.
For reference:
The Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that the Russians were to capture the town of Chasiv Yar near Bakhmut by May 9. The capture of the city would create conditions for the enemy's further advance to the Kramatorsk agglomeration.
However, the ISW believes that the Russian army may not have time to capture the entire town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region by May 9 but only enter its eastern district. However, the lack of artillery and air defense equipment in Ukraine's armed forces will allow the Russian invaders to advance faster during the operation to capture the city.
The Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Syrskyi, has reported that the situation on the eastern front has dramatically deteriorated in the past few days. This is due to the increased intensity of Russian troops' offensive actions following the presidential elections in Russia.
