Delay of Western support helped Russia launch offensives on three fronts – ISW
Photo: Facebook / General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Delays in Western security assistance supply to Ukraine are helping Russia launch offensive operations on multiple fronts simultaneously.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces are currently conducting at least three offensive operations, Rubryka reports.
Analysts estimate that delays in Western security aid, specifically artillery ammunition and critical air defense systems, have hindered Ukrainian forces from defending Avdiivka against the Russian advance.
The critical shortage of equipment provided by the West and concerns about a complete halt of military aid from the US has forced Ukrainian forces to scatter their equipment along the entire front, which likely encouraged Russian forces to take advantage of the situation.
They have initiated offensives beyond Avdiivka — along the border of Kharkiv and Luhansk regions since January 2024 and near Robotyne in the western part of Zaporizhzhia region over the last 48 hours.
ISW believes that this Russian offensive will likely hinder Ukrainian forces from preparing personnel and equipment for counteroffensive operations.
Ukraine will suffer if it simply digs in and tries to defend itself until the end of 2024, as some Western countries and analysts suggest.
Key ISW findings as of February 18
Ukrainian forces are likely to establish new defensive lines near Avdiivka, which will likely culminate in the peak of the Russian offensive in this sector of the front.
Delays in providing Western security assistance to Ukraine are likely to help Russia launch opportunistic offensive operations on multiple fronts to exert pressure on Ukrainian forces along several axes.
The recent simultaneous initiation of offensive operations by Russian forces likely aims to exploit two "windows of opportunity" — the period before the upcoming spring thaw and nuances in the dynamics of Western assistance provision.
The capture of Avdiivka after four months of intense offensive operations serves as an example of how Russian forces conduct offensives that may not necessarily create conditions for broader operational gains but still compel Ukraine to allocate human and material resources for defensive operations.
Russian forces have not yet demonstrated the ability to achieve operationally significant gains or conduct rapid mechanized maneuvers over large territories, and the capture of Avdiivka should be viewed as a demonstration of this capability.
Ukrainian officials are investigating two cases of Russia's apparent violations of the Geneva Convention on Prisoners of War in the occupied Donetsk region.
Russian military bloggers have criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense for not acknowledging Lieutenant General Sergey Milchakov, commander of the 1st Army Corps of the "DNR," and the "Veteran" Assault Brigade (Volunteer Corps) for their role in the capture of Avdiivka, emphasizing that tension between Russian regular and irregular forces persists.
The Washington Post reported that the Kremlin has been organizing extensive efforts to spread disinformation in Ukrainian media since January 2023, confirming recent official statements by Ukraine about Russian information operations using fake Telegram channels to penetrate the Ukrainian information space.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced on February 18 that Denmark is transferring "all its artillery" to Ukraine.
According to reports, the US is urging India and China to engage Russia in talks regarding Russia's intentions to deploy anti-satellite nuclear weapons into space.
On February 18, Russian forces made confirmed advancements in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region amid prolonged positional fighting along the entire front line.
Russian occupation officials continue to use educational programs as a means of Russification in occupied Ukraine.
Rubryka reported that the Ukrainian forces completed the withdrawal of units from Avdiivka in the Donetsk region.
Shocking video evidence suggests Russian forces killed Ukrainian POWs in Avdiivka, families confirm identities of victims
Ukrainian forces stop Russian advance in Zaporizhzhia region, eliminating 70 troops
