Ukraine's ex-president Kuchma: one should not count on putin dying or war ending shortly
Фото: Фейсбук/ Речниця другого президента Дарка Оліфер
The war in Ukraine will not end quickly, and some factors will affect the course and duration of the bloody conflict
It is what the second president of Ukraine, Leonid Kuchma, said in an interview with the BBC.
Kuchma believes that the course of the war will be influenced both by the successful counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the South and the liberation of Kherson and by the approach of cold weather and political crises and elections in the West.
"First, one should not count on the fact that putin is about to die or that sanctions are about to kill russia economically. Neither should we count that the russian citizen will suddenly see the light of day and come out for an anti-war protest. Nothing like that will happen. Ukraine must fight and resolve everything on the battlefield…
I do not think that the war will end soon. The way putin feverishly supplies an army from prisons and weapons from eastern autocracies shows that he still wants to have some kind of 'victory,'" the second president emphasized.
According to Kuchma, in the civilized world, they usually try to find a win-win solution in conflicts — when everyone wins to one degree or another, and there are no "pure" losers, but this is not the case of Ukraine and russia.
The second president believes that putin has brought so much grief, destruction, and horror to Ukraine that compromises have become impossible.
There can only be one winner in this war. Kuchma believes that Ukraine will win.
He added that now each of the parties is counting on its own strengthening:
- Ukraine – to increase supplies of Western weapons,
- russia – on further mobilization and the war economy footing
The course and duration of the war will also be affected by:
- the result of the announced counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the South and the liberation of Kherson,
- the approach of a cold period without the russian gas supply,
- the prospect of political crises and elections in the West,
- also, "the unwillingness of the "average European" to lose dramatically in the level of comfort and well-being.
Kuchma also does not believe that russia can use strategic nuclear weapons.
Because this will mean "guaranteed mutual destruction" for both sides (russia and the USA – ed.), which will use nuclear weapons against each other. According to the second president of Ukraine, "Putin is not suicidal."
At the same time, Kuchma does not rule out that the Kremlin can use tactical nuclear weapons.
When asked whether the world is on the threshold of the Third World War and whether russia might attack Lithuania or Poland, Kuchma answered:
"When Hitler attacked Poland, no one knew that a world war was already underway. Depending on how Ukraine repels the aggression, either the Third World War will be avoided, or it is already underway.
If we stand up, putin will not go any further. If not, I'm afraid that "there will be more." But we will resist," Kuchma summed up.
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