Ukraine’s limited air defense capabilities allow Russia to rapidly advance on the front — ISW
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The Russian air force supports the Russians' successive and rapid ground successes, including near Chasiv Yar: the enemy's advance is due to the degradation of Ukrainian air defenses at the front.
Rubryka informs about this, referring to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to American analysts, Ukrainian air defense remains limited and degraded. This allows Russian aviation to operate freely and without threat in certain critical areas of the front.
The ability of Russian aircraft to operate more than 100 kilometers deep in Ukrainian airspace near the front line without significant casualties indicates that Ukrainian air defenses in the area are currently insufficient to deter or prohibit Russian aircraft from operating on the front line.
Ukraine's ability to launch long-range strikes against Russian strategic combat aircraft could temporarily limit Russian air force operations, as it has previously done with tactical aircraft.
However, this ability to strike does not compensate for the critical shortage of air defense assets in the entire theater of operations. Ukrainian forces must determine how to allocate their limited air defense assets. This leads to significant costs.
Key takeaways as of April 19:
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signaled Russia's intent to seize Kharkiv in a future significant Russian offensive operation, the first senior Kremlin official to outright identify the city as a possible Russian operational objective following recent Ukrainian warnings that Russian forces may attempt to seize the city starting in Summer 2024.
- Ukrainian officials announced that Ukrainian forces downed a Russian aircraft as it conducted missile strikes against Ukraine for the first time overnight on April 18 to 19, demonstrating a capability that may constrain how Russia conducts its strike campaign against Ukraine.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that Ukraine requires Western provisions of artillery ammunition, air defense materiel, long-range artillery and missile systems, and fighter aircraft as Ukrainian constraints continue due to delays in US military assistance.
- Pro-Russian Moldovan actors continue to set conditions to justify possible future Russian aggression in Moldova as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov compared Moldova to Ukraine and Armenia.
- Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to expand the newly reformed Leningrad Military District (LMD) in preparation for an anticipated future large-scale conventional conflict with NATO.
- Russian officials continue to forcibly deport and Russify Ukrainian children as Ukrainian authorities work to return deported children to Ukrainian-controlled territory.
What is known about the Russian offensive on Chasiv Yar
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that the Russians were given the task of capturing the town of Chasiv Yar near Bakhmut by May 9. The capture of the city will create conditions for the enemy's further advance to the Kramatorsk agglomeration.
However, ISW believes that the Russian army may not have time to capture the entire town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region by May 9 but only enter its eastern district. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army's lack of artillery and air defense equipment can allow the Russian invaders to advance faster during the operation to capture the city.
According to Syrskyi, the situation on the Eastern Front has significantly worsened in recent days because Russian troops intensified their offensive actions after the presidential elections in the Russian Federation.
Recently, fighters of the Black Swan assault battalion of the 255th strike group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who are currently fighting on the eastern front, demonstrated the current state of Chasiv Yar.
