10:23 30 Nov 2023

Ukrainian forces gain more ground on left bank of Kherson region, mobilizing reinforcements

Photo: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

On November 29, Ukrainian forces resumed ground attacks on the eastern (left) bank of the Kherson region and reportedly made advances, Rubryka reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War.

Russian sources claimed Ukrainian forces advanced southwest of Krynky (30 km northeast of the city of Kherson and 2 km from the Dnipro River) and secured positions in a nearby forest. Military bloggers reported ongoing battles near Krynka, with Russian airstrikes and artillery attacks.

Ukrainian General Staff stated their forces hold positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. Russian military bloggers alleged the continuous deployment of new assault groups by Ukraine and claimed 300-400 Ukrainian fighters near Krynky.

Consistent Russian claims about Ukrainian reinforcements reaching the eastern bank suggest Russian forces aim to hinder Ukraine's efforts to reinforce positions in the eastern Kherson region.

Military analysts also highlighted Russia's apparent inability to form a cohesive command structure among defending forces on the eastern bank. Russian forces' morale and combat capabilities in this region continue to deteriorate.

On November 29, Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian units of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade near Krynky refused to storm Ukrainian positions due to a lack of weapons, artillery coordination, reconnaissance, and information on Russian minefield locations. The incident led to 50 losses in the 810th Brigade over the past month.

Units of the 810th Brigade arrived in the Krynky area in early October 2023 and seem to have taken responsibility from the 18th General Army after the start of Ukrainian ground operations in mid-October 2023. The 28th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 18th General Army currently operates in Pisky.

Reportedly, additional units from the 18th General Army and the 7th Airborne Division hold positions in the rear areas on the eastern bank. The combined command of these formations likely oversees Russia's response to Ukrainian ground operations in the east.

The incident involving the minefield indicates a failure in coordination, with Russian higher-level commanders yet to address the issue, leading to miscommunication.

Key conclusions as of November 29 by the Institute for the Study of War

Russia's evident inability to establish a unified command structure among forces defending the eastern bank of Kherson continues to degrade morale and combat capabilities.

The "Dnipro" Russian force increasingly consists of fragmented elements, degraded units, and new formations, contributing to a lack of cohesive command structure.

Russian authorities plan to extend criminal liability for crimes against military service laws to members of volunteer formations.

Russian officials propose laws to restrict the actions of foreign citizens in Russia, likely supporting efforts to compel migrants into Russian military service.

The Ukraine-NATO Council on November 29 convened at the foreign ministers' level to discuss steps to increase arms and ammunition production.

Poland is reportedly considering sending military advisers to Finland in response to Russia's attempts to artificially create a migrant crisis on the Finnish-Russian border as part of hybrid warfare tactics to destabilize NATO and the EU.

On November 28, Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially announced the termination of the nuclear weapons reduction agreement with Japan.

Russia's efforts to build a fighting force by recruiting from Central Asian countries may strain Russia's relations with its Central Asian neighbors.

Adam Kadyrov, the younger son of Chechen Republic head Ramzan Kadyrov, is set to "oversee" the newly formed volunteer battalion "Sheikh Mansur," possibly indicating Ramzan's desire for Adam to succeed him as the head of Chechnya.

Russian forces continue offensive actions along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border area, and the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region, but haven't made any confirmed advances.

LDPR Chairman and State Duma deputy Leonid Slutsky, on November 28, proposed a bill granting "combat veteran" status and corresponding social support to correspondents working in conflict zones.

Russian authorities persist in attempting to destroy Ukrainian culture and identity in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

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