Earthquakes: was it possible to predict the disaster in Turkey, what to expect in Ukraine, and how to act in case of danger?

What is the problem?

An extremely powerful and catastrophic earthquake on February 6 on the border of Turkey and Syria claimed the lives of thousands of people. This is the largest earthquake since 1939. Aftershocks with a strength of 5.8 to 7.5 points occurred for half a day. Seismologists are warning that Turkey will be "shaken" for at least the next six days.

On the same day, a 4.6-magnitude earthquake also occurred in the south of Kazakhstan, and a 4.8-magnitude one in Romania. An earthquake with a magnitude of 3.8 was recorded 2 kilometers from New York, which was also felt in Canada. On February 7, a very weak earthquake was recorded in Moldova.

A day before the tragic events, on February 5, a 5.8-magnitude earthquake was recorded almost 200 kilometers from Tokyo; on February 4 — a 5.9-magnitude quake near the city of Kainantru in Papua New Guinea; on February 2 — a 5-magnitude earthquake in Alaska, and on February 1 recorded earthquakes of magnitude 5 and 6, respectively, in the Dominican Republic and the Philippines.

Interest in earthquakes increased sharply, and the catastrophe immediately began to be overgrown with speculation. In this article, Rubryka debunks the myths surrounding earthquakes and explains why Ukrainians should not panic.

What is the solution?

Dmytro Hryn, a senior researcher from the department of regional problems of geophysics of the S. I. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics, explained in a comment to Rubryka that the tectonic movement of continents leads to the creation of new and "dying" of old structures, and this is a constant natural process. Dmytro Hryn shares that the fact that earthquakes occur in other places is just a regularity, but these processes are not directly connected.

Earthquakes happen every day; there can be 100-150 of them per day all over the planet. People often do not even notice them because most have little power. But in the last two days, 248 such earthquakes were counted, which, according to the scientist, is connected with global activation.

"And this is also a normal phenomenon," adds Dmytro Hryn.

In connection with the disaster in Turkey, the interview of Oleksandr Kendzera, seismologist and director of the Institute of Geophysics named after S.I. Subbotin of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, in which he said that an earthquake is also possible on the territory of Ukraine, as published by multiple Ukrainian media. Mainly because one of the largest seismic nodes in Europe is on the territory of Romania — the Vrancea zone. Earthquakes caused by seismic activity in the Vrancea area occurred in 1977, 1986, and 1990.

Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, and Odesa regions can experience such activity. But an earthquake in these zones is a probability, not a forecast. The strength of these earthquakes can reach 7 points. Such an earthquake was recorded in 1834 in Zakarpattia — from Svalava to Rakhov. The strongest earthquake in western Ukraine this century was in 2002, in the Mykulyntsi district of the Ternopil region. Its strength was recorded at 6 points, but because the depth of shocks was 20 kilometers, people almost did not feel them.

The situation is somewhat different in the south of the country. A relatively strong earthquake can occur on the southern coast of the temporarily occupied Crimea, which has its own seismically active zones. In 1927, a catastrophic earthquake of magnitude 8 occurred here.

Traces of a landslide from the 1927 earthquake on Mount Demerdzhi, photo 2012

But strong earthquakes in Ukraine are the exception rather than the rule. So, for example, in 2022 alone, there were about 100 low-power earthquakes in Ukraine, and this is not a special case — in general, there are from 30 to 200 of them every year.

Schematic representation of seismically active belts and epicenters of earthquakes of 1963-1998 are shown in black

The earthquake in Turkey occurred in the seismically active belt to which Ukraine also belongs, but the destruction occurred in the southwestern part of this belt, while Ukraine lies in the northeastern part.

On February 2nd, a tweet appeared on the Dutch Research Institute for the Study of the Geometry of the Solar System (SSGEOS) page, which monitors the geometry of celestial bodies and looks for their connections with seismic activity, warning of significant seismic activity around February 4th.

Larger seismic activity may occur from 4 to 6 February, most likely up to mid or high 6 magnitude. There is a slight possibility of a larger seismic event around 4 February.https://t.co/75I3PjAarX

— SSGEOS (@ssgeos) February 2, 2023

"Sooner or later, there will be a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in this region (south-central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon)," wrote institute researcher Frank Hoogerbeets in a retweet of the post.

Sooner or later there will be a ~M 7.5 #earthquake in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon). #deprem pic.twitter.com/6CcSnjJmCV

— Frank Hoogerbeets (@hogrbe) February 3, 2023

Some users of social networks, particularly on the Ukrainian-language Facebook, began to promote a similar opinion that the Turkish authorities did not warn the population about the probable earthquake, although they allegedly knew about it.

But in the scientific community, Hoogerbeets' theory about the influence of the planets and the Moon on seismic activity causes resistance. Dmytro Hryn explains that the Moon, as an object of a vast mass, directly affects the Earth, can cause tides, and can affect the occurrence and activation of earthquakes. To a certain extent, the Sun can also have an influence. Still, more distant objects, for example, Mars or Uranus, have no effect on the Earth, and therefore do not influence the occurrence of earthquakes," is the main opinion of seismologists regarding the new theory at the moment.

When the earthquake struck, and Hoogerbeets' tweet went viral on social media, some called him a pseudoscientist and questioned his previous predictions. Hoogerbeets responded that while his theory has not been scientifically proven, it has no refutation. At the same time, Hoogerbeets made new forecasts, in which he promised that seismic activity would continue even on February 8. On this day, an earthquake with a magnitude of 4.1 occurred in Israel.

Today no technology can accurately predict earthquakes, but in theory, it is possible. They occur in seismically active zones, but at a depth of 10-15-20-25 kilometers, so it is impossible to predict in which city, of what magnitude, and when the earthquake will occur. There is no such technology and such an amount of equipment. They appear at the most unexpected times, in the most unexpected places of seismic zones, Dmytro Hryn explains.

All evidence-based, effectively proven methods of predicting possible earthquakes work only at the local level. That is, it is possible to predict an earthquake in a particular area by characteristic signs: cracking (recorded at a depth of 20 km), temperature increase, and the release of gases. But even so, according to scientist, it is impossible to give exact figures that an earthquake will occur tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.

Some ecologists have linked the earthquake in Turkey to human influence on the climate. Indeed, there may be a link between earthquakes and climate change, but it is only marginal.

For example, the melting of glaciers due to the increase in temperature on the planet can lead to a decrease in the load on the area where the glacier lies, which, in turn, will lead to an earthquake. But this is rather an exception than a general rule:

Climate changes seem to be "from above," and the processes that influence the earthquakes occur at a great depth of 10-20 kilometers. Therefore, there is no direct connection between climate, weather, and the occurrence of earthquakes. Rather, there is an inverse connection there — if there is an intensification of strong earthquakes, the process of emissions from volcanoes entering the atmosphere begins, which already affects both the climate and the environment.

One such historical example was 200 years ago when the eruption of the Tambora volcano on the Indonesian island of Sumbawa sent so much volcanic dust into the air that it began to block sunlight and heat the Earth's surface. Thus, 1816 was called the "Year without a summer," although the eruption's consequences were felt for another ten years: abnormal cold weather was observed throughout the Northern Hemisphere.

By the way, there is no information about the abnormal cold in 1816 in Ukraine. On the contrary, it is known that Ukraine had a hot summer that year. The change in the direction of the winds, which led to catastrophic cold in Western Europe and America, resulted in an increase in temperature in Ukraine.

Nuclear explosions can cause "artificial" or man-made earthquakes, oil pumping (if it happens quickly and in large volumes), mine collapses, and sudden filling or emptying large reservoirs. This is what happened in India when the construction of the Koyna reservoir caused an 8-point earthquake. Then 177 people died.

Man-made earthquakes also occur in Ukraine. According to Dmytro Hryn, they are possible where minefields are currently flooded and not fortified, that is, in the east of the country, in the Zaporizhzhia region, in Kryvyi Rih. This applies to both coal and salt mines, which can erode. It also leads to landslides, and landslides lead to man-made earthquakes. But, as a rule, they are not very powerful since the depth of artificial formations usually only reaches a kilometer. Due to the small power (2-3 points), the distribution zone is also not very large — about 100 kilometers, and people may not even feel them.

However, the situation can be critical if earthquakes occur near critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants and chemical plants. Therefore, if there is a risk of a man-made earthquake, it is necessary to stop the work of such large enterprises.

There is an opinion that the 2008 earthquake in China, in the province of Sichuan, was man-made. The disaster, which took the lives of almost 70 thousand people, was probably caused by the creation of another huge reservoir in the foothills of Tibet.

We asked geologist Dmytro Hryn about this:

"When a large volume is filled with water, it breaks the stability that was there, and the water begins to penetrate the inter-fault structures and "lubricates" the dry cracks. This is how a man-made earthquake can happen. So the theory that the earthquake in Sichuan was man-made has the right to exist," he stated, adding that something similar happened in Ukraine as well.

Thus, the Dniester HPP has a monitoring system for the effect of a large amount of water in the reservoir on earthquakes. The researchers noticed that during the reservoir filling, the background changed, and there were micro-earthquakes.

It all depends on where exactly the earthquake caught you.

If you are in an earthquake-resistant modern building, you can not go anywhere.

However, if it is a matter of panel houses, which, as the example of Turkey showed, can simply collapse, one must try to escape in time.

The State Emergency Service prescribes the rules of conduct during an earthquake in Ukraine, but safety measures may differ in different countries.

In Japan, it is advised not to leave buildings during earthquakes (because they are all earthquake resistant) but to stay inside. At the same time, it is advised to protect your head, both outdoors and indoors; for example, hold a pillow, book, or bag over your head so that large, heavy objects cannot injure you. You can hide under the table; it also provides effective protection. Hold onto the top of the table legs.

The situation is somewhat different in cities where the buildings meet the standards. For example, in Italy, which is famous for its ancient streets and is also located in a seismically active zone, an earthquake occurred in 2016, which took about 300 lives.

If you are not in an earthquake-resistant building during a strong earthquake, you cannot hide under the table: you may simply be crushed by the tabletop. This is how people died during the earthquake in Armenia in 1988.

During a strong earthquake, the so-called "triangle of life" will help you to save yourself. The upper floors fall on furniture or other large objects when a building collapses. A free space or a small opening is formed around these objects due to resistance to compression, which is called the "triangle of life."

This space must be used in the event of an earthquake. Large and strong furniture — a sofa, an armchair — will be suitable as a "support." You need to lie down next to them, take the position of an embryo, and protect your head: with your hands or a pillow.

The "triangle of life" is one of the ten rules of Doug Copp, a world-renowned rescuer who has been involved in clearing debris all over the planet for many years. He developed survival techniques for many situations, including earthquakes.

1️⃣-2️⃣ During rescue operations, Doug Copp noticed that children, adults, cats, dogs, and other animals remained alive under the rubble in the fetal position. This is a natural safety posture, so hide near a large, sturdy object in the fetal position to survive an earthquake. The item may compress slightly from debris but will leave a space near it. People hiding under tables in buildings or cars on the street are killed or seriously injured.

3️⃣ Wooden buildings are the safest because wood is flexible, moves with the force of an earthquake, and has a less concentrated "crushing" force. If a wooden building collapses, large voids are created. Brick buildings are less safe, and panel buildings are the most dangerous.

4️⃣ Rules 1 and 2 work if you cannot quickly leave the building.

5️⃣ If you were in bed during the earthquake, roll off it and be next to the bed, but in no case under it.

6️⃣ Do not stand in the doorway.

7️⃣ Never approach the stairs! Even if the earthquake does not destroy the stairs, they may collapse.

8️⃣ Be near or outside the outer walls of buildings. If you are inside, the further you are from the exterior walls of the building, the more likely your escape route will be blocked. If you are near a building, it is better to be outside than inside.

9️⃣ If you are in a car during an earthquake, get out and take the fetal position next to it.

🔟 In one of the rules, Doug writes how during rescue operations in offices with a lot of paper, he noticed that the paper was not compessed under the rubble, and large voids around the piles of paper were discovered. Therefore, large stacks of paper can also support the "triangle of life."

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