Ukrainian military must coordinate ground operations with ATACMS strikes – ISW
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According to experts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the ATACMS missiles provided to Ukraine by the United States can weaken Russian logistics and threaten Russian airfields and warehouses. However, if the Defense Forces reinforce these strikes with ground operations, they will have operational significance for Ukraine.
ISW reports this.
US President Joe Biden announced on April 24 that the US will begin sending military equipment to Ukraine "in a few hours" after signing a bill that provides Ukraine with assistance worth about $60 billion.
Biden signed the additional appropriations bill for Ukraine on April 24 after the US Senate passed it on the evening of April 23 and the US House of Representatives on April 20. Biden emphasized the need for military aid to Ukraine as soon as possible.
The Pentagon announced that the first tranche of American military aid provided for in this bill is $1 billion.
Analysts note that American security assistance may arrive on the front line in Ukraine within the next few weeks, that is, sooner than the Russian side expects.
The report reads, "The battlefield situation will continue to degrade until Ukrainian forces can receive and use enough military equipment at scale. However, Ukrainian forces may still struggle to defend against Russian efforts near Chasiv Yar and northwest of Avdiivka in the near term."
According to experts, having a significant number of long-range ATACMS missiles will give Ukrainian forces the ability to disrupt Russian supply lines and target Russian airbases deep in its territory. However, the several months of delay may have provided the Russian military with enough time to prepare for the potential threat posed by Ukraine's use of ATACMS missiles.
In addition, the advent of long-range ATACMS missiles could also pose a significant threat to Russian ammunition depots in rear areas and force the Russian command to choose between strengthening existing depots and further dispersing depots throughout occupied Ukraine.
Russian forces may have already adapted to potential new Ukrainian strike capabilities following the deployment of ATACMS in October 2023. However, whether the occupiers' ammunition depots are sufficiently fortified or dispersed remains unclear.
The review recalls that the arrival of HIMARS in Ukraine in June 2022 allowed Ukrainian forces to conduct an operationally important interception campaign in support of counteroffensive operations in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions and forced the Russian command to expand Russian logistics along longer landlines of communication, which as a result made it complex Russian provision of ammunition and materials.
With this in mind, experts indicate that Ukrainian strikes against Russian logistics facilities or Russian aircraft deep in the rear are likely to have operational significance, but only if Ukrainian forces successfully coordinate them with ground operations to take advantage of weakened Russian capabilities due to the strikes.
У британській розвідці оцінили здатність росії захистити військові заводи від українських БпЛА
ISW key takeaways as of April 24:
- US President Joe Biden announced on April 24 that the US will begin sending military equipment to Ukraine "a few hours" after signing a bill providing roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine.
- The United States reportedly provided an unspecified number of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in March 2024, some of which Ukraine has already used to strike Russian targets in deep rear areas.
- The arrival of sufficient long-range ATACMS missiles will allow Ukrainian forces to degrade Russian logistics and threaten Russian airfields in deep rear areas, although months of delay may have provided the Russian military with time to offset the potential operational impacts that ATACMS will afford Ukraine.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against Russian energy and industrial facilities in Smolensk and Lipetsk oblasts on the night of April 23 to 24.
- Russian authorities arrested Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on April 24 on charges of accepting bribes, although other Russian sources reported that Ivanov is suspected of treason.
- Ivanov's arrest prompted Russian information space speculation about a new round of personnel changes in the Russian military and claims that the arrest is part of Kremlin factional conflicts.
- Russian ultranationalist military bloggers primarily celebrated Ivanov's arrest and used it as an opportunity to criticize the Russian Ministry of Defense publicly.
- The Kremlin explicitly threatened Armenia if Armenia did not resume active engagement in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and resume its pro-Kremlin alignment.
- Kremlin-appointed Children's Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova deliberately misrepresented recent Qatari-mediated negotiations between Russia and Ukraine as the first face-to-face negotiations on the return of Ukrainian children forcibly removed and deported by Russia, likely to minimize Russia's responsibility for the coordinated removal and deportation of Ukrainian children.
- Moldovan authorities filed a criminal case against Yevgenia Gutsul, the Kremlin-affiliated governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, for campaign finance violations as Moldovan officials continue to warn about Russia's threat to Moldova.
- Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and Robotyne.
- Russian State Duma Committee on Information Policy Head Alexander Khinshtein stated on April 24 that unspecified Russian officials will soon submit a draft law to the State Duma that would ban the extradition of foreigners who have fought in Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine if the foreigners face prosecution for their military service in their home countries.
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