A significant retreat: why did russian troops actually leave Kyiv and beyond?
In the last few days russian invaders left Bucha, Hostomel, Ivankiv, Dymer, and many other towns and villages; they stepped away from the capital. Let's analyze why this happened and whether it means that we have almost had a win.
What is the problem?
The military situation around the capital has changed in our favor. The russians left the whole region (and until recently they were almost at the entrance to Kyiv and fired the city), and are also leaving the neighboring Chernihiv and Sumy. They left a bloody trail.
This maneuver of the russians, their retreat is rather unexpected. After all, the Institute of War Studies, the American military-analytical center, which has been monitoring the fighting since its inception, previously called Kyiv the main target of the kremlin (the experts considered Chernihiv and Sumy as the bridgehead to attack the capital).
What was it? Retreat, escape, conspiracy? Is the victory already ours? We are going to analyze together.
What is the solution?
Actually, analyze the situation with a cold head.
The enemies did not flee but retreated in an organized manner
The difference is that when fleeing, the occupiers run away or surrender, and in our case, they tried to retreat according to plan.
"The enemy is retreating in stages, leading in some areas and directions in quite fierce rearguard battles. In some cases, the retreat [of the enemy] goes under the guise of massive artillery fire, air and missile forces," said military expert Kostiantyn Mashovets on April 2.
And the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine points out that the russians also mined the area in order to slow down the offensive of the Ukrainian army.
The occupiers were helped by the fact that our army did not have a complete advantage in the air (and the enemy could deploy S-400 anti-aircraft systems in Belarus, which hit by 400 kilometers), so they were not afraid of airstrikes. By this way, a considerable number of the invaders managed to escape.
However, the General Staff, the North Command, and the former People's Deputy Yehor Soboliev reported the fighting with the russians on social media. Our army managed to capture modern technology. Therefore, the thesis "the enemy created a 'green corridor' for retreat" is wrong.
They found a reason to retreat: the plan of the russians near Kyiv failed, and their troops had a risk of being surrounded
Thus, in the first days of the war, the enemy planned a Blitzkrieg, when the landing party was to capture the airports in Hostomel and Vasilkiv, where IL-76 transport planes with troops and equipment could land. Probably, it was the Chornobyl ground forces that tried to break through to help them.
It is still unknown what the russians planned to do next: to block the capital from the right bank or storm the government quarter on Peremohy Avenue. Other units of the russian federation went through the Left Bank to Brovary.
But the Ukrainian fighters thwarted this plan. The landing party near Vasylkiv was defeated in a day, the Hostomel airport was lost, but they were defeated by artillery strikes there. Military expert Kyrylo Danylchenko notes the role of Ukrainian air defense, as just in one week the russians lost at least 3 helicopters and 4 planes here. "Many more collapsed in the woods, drowned in the swamp and in the Dnieper, were struck by a rocket, reached Belarus, and were written off," he added.
Because of this, the invaders "slipped" and were forced to wage protracted battles in the Irpin-Bucha-Hostomel zone, often under the fire from our artillerymen and Bayraktar bombs. The Ukrainians not only sat in the fortifications but conducted a mobile defense: they entered the occupied territory in small infantry groups, attacked the enemy, and returned.
Nature was on our side. In order to break through to the capital, the russians had to cross the Irpin River (which, in addition, overflowed). They couldn't. The soldiers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces blew up all the bridges, and then methodically smashed the pontoon crossings led by the enemy. The occupiers tried to bypass the Zhytomyr highway but there they were stopped by heavy fire from our artillery.
According to the reports of the General Staff and the Institute for War Studies, the front line near Kyiv did not move. The Armed Forces managed to bind the russian army, there was no question of storming or sieging the capital. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians recaptured Makariv (March 2), entered Kukhara (mid-March), and finally recaptured Irpin (March 28).
"Today, the russian army around Kyiv looks exhausted. And this is not the case when you just need to 'get some rest' and then make your way back," Phillips O'Brien, editor-in-chief of War in History, said on April 1. According to the Guardian, the soldiers of the invaders in some places simply rebelled because of the defeats.
As early as March 22, Maksym Zhorin, co-commander of the Azov Troop detachment, stated that Bucha and Hostomel were "under fire control" (that is, our fighters had held fire on these territories). On March 31, Ukrainian soldiers attacked the russians in Stoyanka.
As a result, the occupiers risked being enclosed in the ring. Their rear was not 100% reliable, because there was an Exclusion Zone behind, which is still contaminated with radiation in some places.
The russians, who went from Chernihiv and Sumy to Brovary, had similar problems. Instead of entering Kyiv quickly on March 10, they lost the battle near Skybin, stopped, and put themselves under the Ukrainian counterattacks.
And the Armed Forces took the villages of Lukianivka and Nova Basan, then smashed more than 30 units of enemy armored vehicles in the area of Velyka Doroha and actually began surrounding the occupiers. According to the well-known Austrian analyst Thomas Cooper, their units on the east to Kyiv began to disintegrate.
So the russians had plenty of motives to withdraw troops. At the same time, they tried to "whiten" the failures on their own TV channels, saying that it was such a cunning maneuver, conceived from the beginning.
Why did the enemy retreat and not send even more forces to Kyiv?
However, the Ukrainian army stopped the aggressors, defeated them in many parts of the front, and destroyed and captured hundreds of enemy equipment (now the Armed Forces have more tanks than before the war, thanks to the trophies).
For example, russian Marines, special forces, and paratroopers were repulsed near Kyiv; this is the elite, where ordinary recruits are not serving. And near Kharkiv, the Ukrainians defeated units of the 138th Guards Brigade, which fought in Chechnya, Syria, and Donbas, and the 200th, which was being presented at Russian parades.
Enemies also have difficulties with the supply of fuel and ammunition: our territory is large, convoys have to be driven over hundreds of kilometers, and our Special Operations Forces and partisans intercept them. The russians lack reserves (so they are withdrawing troops from occupied Abkhazia and hiring Syrian militants). However, this is a merit of the Armed Forces (often at the cost of painful losses), and not just a fart or weakness of the russian federation.
By the way, the modern technology of the enemy is also not infinite. Thus, near Mykolaiv, russian T-64 tanks were noticed recently. Although the occupiers used to call this tank "obsolete." The main one was the T-72, and the most perfect was the T-90 Vladimir. Also in the south, the russians attach the machine guns to conventional pickups. Probably, they lack armored vehicles.
We explain why the Russians will attack the east
The kremlin "slipped" (the front line did not actually move), so it decided to gather strength and strike in one direction; it will be Donetsk and Lugansk regions. This assessment is given by both the US Pentagon and the British Ministry of Defense.
After all, if you look at the map, the russians are "hanging" over our troops in the area of Joint Forces Operation (thanks to the capture of Izium and part of the Lugansk region). So they will try to surround the Ukrainian units in the area, cutting them off from the rest of the country. Then putin will be able to declare victory in the "special operation" and the alleged "liberation" of the so-called "L/DPR."
And also, to blackmail President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the talks. This is how the kremlin acted during the battles for Debaltseve and the talks in Minsk: threatening Petro Poroshenko to destroy Ukrainian troops.
What can we do?
The first thing is not to fall into euphoria, believing that we have already won. The enemy is still occupying a part of our country, and they have enough fighter jets and missiles to threaten our cities.
And the withdrawn troops are moving to the east of Ukraine, where they will continue the war against our defenders. However, not immediately: they will need time to regroup, and some equipment of theirs is severely damaged.
So we need to continue to help our country: volunteer, support IDPs, and the Armed Forces, to work and earn money (because that's how you keep the economy afloat). Our victory is still ahead.
