Gone, but still there: What does Boris Johnson's resignation mean for Ukraine?
The election of a new British prime minister has already been scheduled for September 5. Why did Johnson resign, and what should Ukrainians expect?
One of the most popular politicians in Ukraine has announced his resignation. PM resignations happened more than once in Ukraine, but it has never happened to the British Prime Minister. On July 7, Boris Johnson announced "the will of the parliamentary Conservative Party that there should be a new leader of that party and therefore a new prime minister," so he's leaving.
Ukrainians were quite nerve-wracked by the news because the United Kingdom is one of Ukraine's key allies, and in terms of aid, it's only second to the United States. Now more than a thousand Ukrainian soldiers are training in the UK, and training is planned for 10 thousand. Ukraine is also waiting for MLRS M270 rocket launchers and self-propelled guns.
Johnson's political career was dragged to the bottom by several scandals, although the power struggle is evident. We explain what it means for Ukraine and who can replace one of Ukraine's most incredible friends of our time.
Why has Boris Johnson resigned, but he's still the PM?
Ukrainians were saying goodbye to Johnson when it turned out it was too premature. After all, the prime minister has resigned from the post of the Conservative Party leader, not the prime minister. Therefore, he'll continue the de facto rule of Britain, even without the prefix "acting."
The British Conservative Party, like most political forces in the country, isn't built around a specific leader (as happens in Ukraine). Here, the leader is determined in internal party elections.
In short, the party is stable and has a clear ideology, so it can afford to change leaders and continue on its course. It's not for nothing that the Tories have been sitting in Parliament since 1834! Legendary Ukrainian poet Taras Shevchenko had just turned 20 at that time.
For example, 92,000 party members voted for Johnson in 2019—46,000 more than for his opponent, so he led the Conservatives and led them to a victorious parliamentary election. Then he became prime minister because British parties traditionally give this chair to their leader.
But if the conservatives are dissatisfied with their leader, the party's parliament members can declare no confidence and remove him from the leadership chair. All this is internal party affairs, so don't expect early elections in Britain or a change of power in any other way.
The parliamentary majority remains with the conservatives. The Tories will still go to the elections, but they will be internal: they will determine a new leader with a particular procedure. Johnson is almost guaranteed to lose this race: his party members have many complaints against him.
Last time, two months passed from the resignation of the previous leader, Theresa May, to the end of the premiership. Now Britain will get a new prime minister on September 5.
Her Majesty's Government will be headed by Johnson in the meantime, but only until a new Conservative leader is elected. The party has to hand over the prime minister's chair to the new leader, so Boris will have to leave.
Why did Johnson resign?
There are many reasons, but Ukraine is not one of them
Surprisingly, for British political observers, the fall of Johnson is not a surprise. In fact, it was predicted back in 2021 because of a series of scandals, the main one of which was the so-called Partygate scandal.
It began in November 2021, when the Daily Mail claimed that three parties were held at the prime minister's residence in the winter of 2020, with Johnson allegedly attending one of them. No trace of corruption, but there was a strict lockdown at the time, and it was forbidden to gather more than six people.
The media began to "dig" this topic and found that similar meetings were held in May 2020 (there were even photos of the participants drinking wine). In 2021, office workers had parties without the Prime Minister. Such news angered ordinary Britons who couldn't gather at the table with friends and relatives for months due to the quarantine.
What's more, Downing Street first said there was no party. And if there was, then everyone kept their distance. Discussions about this continued for months. Only when there was too much evidence, for example, a photo of Boris himself with a glass, did the prime minister apologize and pay the fine.
On the other hand, the head of the government created a special commission led by Sue Gray, which exposed many quarantine violations in his office. He announced an investigation against himself and didn't try to silence it.
However, what mattered more to the citizens was that Johnson had deceived the British by hiding the party. As many as 72% of Britons were dissatisfied with the Prime Minister in January! They couldn't trust his other promises after Partygate.
In the eyes of Ukrainians, Boris was fully rehabilitated for "Partygate" when he helped our country with weapons and sanctions and was the first to come to Kyiv during a full-scale war. However, his fellow citizens are more interested in domestic politics than international affairs.
Moreover, a new scandal, known as the Chris Pincher scandal, named after the deputy Boris Johnson appointed a party organizer in February, broke out. He resigned on July 3 after reporters from The Sun reported that Pincher had been harassing two men at the Carlton club. Later, the press found six more incidents when the deputy allegedly tried to grope a party colleague.
Boris Johnson didn't participate, but critics said he shouldn't have appointed a person accused of harassment to an influential party post. As with Partygate, the government initially said they had heard no complaints against Pincher, then clarified: they knew, but the victims didn't complain officially! After all, on July 5, Johnson himself admitted his "mistake."
As soon as the public learned about this scandal, the "cabinet mutiny" began, ВВС says. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak and Secretary of State for Health Sajid Javid resigned on July 5.
On July 6, the Tories boycotted the Prime Minister in Parliament. Mr. Sunak and Mr. Javid were followed by 62 members of Johnson's team: ministers, their assistants, and secretaries of state. It is crucial that during all these scandals, Johnson was not criticized for his relations with Ukraine.
However, we shouldn't rule out a political struggle within the party. The Guardian says conservatives considered their leader an "electoral liability." He has become so unpopular among ordinary voters that with him at the head, the Tories have no chance of winning the next election. In May, the conservatives already lost local votes in several regions, losing almost 500 mandates!
Of course, the party's image was undermined by the jump in fuel and food prices (although it was caused by russian aggression, which the government was fighting). But Johnson also miscalculated when he promised to complete Brexit in the elections with success and was unable to do so.
The Guardian journalist Jessica Elgot argued that "heavyweights" of the political force were afraid of losing their constituencies. It may explain why Johnson was tried to be ousted back in June, after the Pincher case. Presumably, the Tories are set to change the leader and rebuild the political force.
Johnson's resignation will not directly affect aid to Ukraine
Fortunately for us, support for Ukraine is not just a personal idea of Boris Johnson but also a clear position of the British Parliament. Therefore, it will not be interrupted even after his resignation.
"The issue of Ukraine is not a reason for major political disagreements in Great Britain. I know that Zelensky and Johnson are great friends. But whoever takes his place, I think their policy will continue concerning Ukraine," Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor at King's College London, predicts.
After all, its voters expect this course from the government. The data published in May (no more recent ones yet) showed that 59% of British respondents were favorable to Ukraine, and almost the same number supported British aid. In comparison, only 7% of Britons perceived russia positively.
In addition, another friend of Ukraine retained his post: Secretary of State for Defense, Ben Wallace. An American Enterprise Institute expert, Elisabeth Braw, says he developed plans for military aid to Kyiv, although the prime minister determines the general political course.
After all, the Minister of Defense is responsible in the government for practical army matters such as handing over NLAW or howitzers to Ukraine. By the way, he knows the weapons not only in theory: Wallace is a veteran officer who served in the elite regiment of the Scots Guards.
He has an extremely high chance of remaining in the new cabinet of ministers because he is popular among conservatives. Colleagues even called Wallace the likely next prime minister. However, he decided to stay with the Ministry of Defense.
Ben Wallace
By the way, after Johnson's resignation, the British Secretary of Defense visited the Ukrainian soldiers training in the kingdom. The visit was similar to a symbolic gesture: they said Britain would continue to support Ukraine.
Now the media is calling ex-chancellor Rishi Sunak the favorite in the party race. After all, he was the first to leave Johnson's government, starting a "cabinet mutiny." During the COVID-19 pandemic, he was responsible for saving the economy, so he knows how to work when a crisis is around.
Rishi Sunak
Sunak crossed paths with Ukraine when he was engaged in economic aid to our country — and he was proud of it. In particular, he wrote a column in the Daily Mail about his steps and meeting with Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko.
Also among the frontrunners are MP Penny Mordaunt, who collected first-aid kits and bulletproof vests for Ukrainians in her district, and the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, Liz Truss, who supported our country even before the February invasion and didn't change her opinion after it. In short, in this, they are like-minded people to the Prime Minister.
Liz Truss
However, temporary difficulties are possible
After all, Boris Johnson was not only the leader of the government and the party but also the informal driver of the Western coalition in support of Ukraine. Ukraine's former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Pavlo Klimkin, says Britain, in particular, was often the first to introduce sanctions against russia.
"Will the new government continue this trend? Will Britain be the driver of this process, as it was at the last G7 meeting? Does it not mean that Britain will support us less, but will it be an 'energizer'? Johnson knows how to be an energizer," Klimkin explains.
Boris had the motivation; he admired Winston Churchill's actions during World War II. Over the years of working in high positions, Johnson earned authority in the international community and established business relationships with world leaders, such as US President Joe Biden.
Johnson's authority helped him because Britain was inferior in power to the US and the European Union. It's not yet known whether the new head of the British government will have the same diplomatic determination. In addition, the successor will need time to get up to speed. In parallel with international politics, they'll need to solve domestic issues such as inflation and price growth.
However, Boris Johnson has raised the bar of British aid to Ukraine so high that no matter who takes the prime minister's chair, our country will be one of the UK's priorities. For that, we should thank him once again.
