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Column 12:58 26 Aug 2024

Lessons for Ukraine: Reconstructing Afghanistan after 2001

In 2001, the United States and its allies succeeded in ending the Taliban's long-term rule in Afghanistan and embarked on efforts to reconstruct the region. Their goals included repairing the extensive damage inflicted by decades of armed conflict, including the Soviet invasion, civil war, and Taliban rule, which had left the country with a devastated infrastructure and a divided society.

At first glance, Ukraine's situation might seem unrelated, but there are significant parallels. Both Ukraine and Afghanistan faced similar challenges, such as Russia's invasion into sovereign land and prolonged conflict. Understanding the experiences of Afghanistan's reconstruction can offer valuable lessons for Ukraine, helping to adapt successful strategies to Ukrainian realities and avoid repeating past mistakes.

Initial terms and obligations of the United States

After the Taliban's ousting, Afghanistan faced severe challenges, including the absence of a functional government, security apparatus, and basic services necessary for establishing a democratic and civilized society.

In response, the US government recognized the urgent need for extensive support and committed over $3.7 billion in aid by early 2002, with additional pledges, such as the $1 billion announced at the Afghanistan Donors' Conference in 2004. These efforts aimed to revive agriculture, improve healthcare and education, and establish a democratic government.

From 1979, when the USSR began its invasion, Afghanistan endured a decade of conflict known as the Soviet-Afghan War, which lasted until 1989. The war was a significant failure for the Soviet Union, resulting in over 200,000 total losses, including nearly 15,000 irreparable casualties, and contributing to the collapse of the Soviet empire. For Afghanistan, this conflict resulted in severe devastation. Following the Soviet withdrawal, the country plunged into a civil war, which led to the rise of the Taliban in the mid-1990s.

The Taliban established a regime marked by severe human rights violations, governed by a strict interpretation of Islamic law. Their government was characterized by Islamocentrism and anti-democracy, with notable restrictions on women's rights becoming a prominent feature of their rule.

The humanitarian situation in Afghanistan was dire, with millions of Afghans requiring urgent assistance due to widespread poverty, malnutrition, and a lack of basic services. The country's infrastructure, including roads, schools, and hospitals, was in ruins. According to UN estimates, Afghanistan faced an acute shortage of food and medical care. Additionally, the country was heavily littered with landmines from previous conflicts, posing severe risks to civilians and hindering recovery efforts.

This situation mirrors the current state of Ukraine, particularly in regions that have been under occupation since the beginning of 2022. Beyond the evident humanitarian crisis, which is also prevalent in border areas near active hostilities due to constant shelling, all of Ukraine is now considered, as the Minister of Environmental Protection Ruslan Strilets stated earlier this year, the most heavily mined country in the world. Addressing this issue will be crucial in the post-war period.

Afghanistan was economically devastated, with an economy that was largely informal and heavily reliant on agriculture. Opium production became a primary source of income for many, while the absence of a formal banking system and widespread corruption further complicated efforts for economic recovery. The international community recognized that rebuilding Afghanistan required significant financial investment and a comprehensive strategy to restore its economy and governance structures.

Ukraine should closely examine this experience, particularly the potential negative consequences of foreign investment. One risk is that foreign investments could undermine national interests or serve the benefits of third parties. For example, the relationship between Washington and Kabul became one of subordination, with the geographical location of Afghanistan being strategically convenient for the US military, providing easier access to countries in the Persian Gulf with which the US has complex relations. A similar scenario could unfold in Ukraine, where it might become a strategic platform for the US on the eastern border with Moscow.

Corruption is another pressing concern. The EU is already sending specialists to Ukraine to address this issue, with a focus on holding those involved accountable and bringing Ukraine to an acceptable level of European standards in combating corruption.

Despite the challenges, significant progress was made in Afghanistan's reconstruction, particularly in healthcare and education. By 2004, Afghanistan saw qualitative improvements, including increased secondary school enrollment, especially among girls, and better access to health services. The US and international community prioritized maternal and child health, hygiene, and vaccination programs, leading to notable reductions in preventable diseases.

Economic recovery

After the Taliban was removed from power in 2001, Afghanistan's economy began to recover, driven largely by a significant influx of international aid. The United States, along with other countries and international organizations, provided extensive humanitarian assistance and financed recovery efforts, which helped stabilize the country's monetary situation.

As a result, Afghanistan's economy entered a period of growth. According to the World Bank's post-2001 development report, legal economic activity saw an approximately 30% increase in 2003. International recovery efforts impacted various sectors, particularly agriculture, construction, and services.

In the early years of reconstruction, Afghanistan experienced a notable GDP increase, with economic indicators rising by around 20% in the fiscal year ending in March 2004. This growth was largely fueled by humanitarian aid, reconstruction projects, and the revitalization of the agricultural sector, which employed a significant portion of the population.

The situation in Ukraine bears similarities, particularly in the importance of agriculture to the economy. With 42 million hectares of agricultural land, Ukraine's agro-industry plays a crucial role, producing goods not only for domestic consumption but also for export to over 100 countries worldwide. 

Afghanistan's agricultural sector showed signs of recovery post-2001, with investments focused on improving infrastructure and access to markets. While the economy benefited from the growth of the opium trade—despite its illegality providing income to many rural households—the state's reliance on such income tarnished its reputation as a recipient of external funding. By 2014, Afghanistan's GDP had increased eightfold compared to 2001, highlighting the significant impact of international support and a relatively stable political environment during that period.

However, despite these initial successes, Afghanistan's recovery faced numerous challenges. The political landscape remained unstable, plagued by ongoing conflict, rampant corruption, and ineffective governance, all of which undermined economic progress. This instability is often cited as one of the factors that facilitated the Taliban's return to power. 

When the Taliban reinstated their regime in 2021, the situation deteriorated further. Real GDP plummeted by 20.7% in 2021 and continued to decline by an additional 6.2% in 2022. The loss of access to the international banking system and the freezing of foreign reserves exacerbated the economic crisis, leading to massive disruptions in public services and a sharp drop in aggregate demand.

​​As of 2023, Afghanistan's economy remains unstable, with the World Bank reporting that nearly half of the population lives in poverty. The economic outlook is uncertain, as structural weaknesses in the private sector and declining external financing present significant barriers to recovery.

Despite some signs of stabilization, such as lower inflation and a stronger local currency, these macroeconomic improvements have not translated into better living conditions for most Afghans. Around 80% of families earn less than $1 per day per household member, leaving them highly vulnerable to economic shocks.

Afghanistan's dependence on international aid continues to be crucial for its economic prospects, a situation that contrasts sharply with Ukraine's experience, particularly in the agricultural sector. The interconnectedness of global supply chains, underscored during the war since 2022, highlights the critical role of Ukraine's agricultural exports. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) forecasts moderate GDP growth of 1.3% in 2024, but this is contingent on maintaining international support at 2022 levels.

After 2001, the US and its allies aimed to build a partnership with post-Taliban Afghanistan, focusing on the reconstruction of a state devastated by decades of conflict, including the Soviet invasion and civil war. Although Afghanistan's economy began to recover due to international aid, it remained unstable due to corruption, political conflicts, and reliance on opium production.

Ukraine, now facing similar challenges due to the war with Moscow, can learn from Afghanistan's experience to avoid pitfalls and adapt successful recovery strategies. For instance, addressing corruption is crucial, as it can severely hinder progress already slowed by bureaucracy. Ensuring a stable and democratic state in Ukraine is also vital. The prevention of coups, the safeguarding of democratic processes, and the promotion of overall progress will be key tasks after the war ends. Studying Afghanistan's experience could prove valuable in this regard.

Ukraine's post-war economic development, which will likely depend on international support, hinges on avoiding the authoritarian tendencies that allowed the Taliban to return to power in Afghanistan. While the Asian and European experiences differ significantly, just as those of Ukraine and Afghanistan do, borrowing successful ideas from other contexts can always aid in state-building and recovery.

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