Ukrainians support 30-day ceasefire, but firmly oppose Russian demands – survey
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Seventy-seven percent of Ukrainians view the proposal for a 30-day temporary ceasefire positively. However, 79% of respondents find the conditions set by the Russian Federation for the ceasefire categorically unacceptable.
This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on March 12-22.
As sociologists note, respondents were offered six interpretations of the idea of a 30-day ceasefire, including:
- 3 conditionally positive for Ukraine,
- 3 conditionally negative.
The respondent had to choose one answer.
"The absolute majority of Ukrainians – 77% – have a positive interpretation of this proposal. Most often, respondents (47% out of 77%) said that this is a way to show that Russia does not want peace or that Russia is violating the agreements. In addition, 12% talk about a way to unblock military aid. The remaining 18% call it primarily a step towards ending the war on terms acceptable to Ukraine," the researchers noted.
Only 17% chose one of three negative options:
- 8% consider this a wrong step that will weaken Ukraine,
- 7% – a step of despair by the Ukrainian authorities due to the difficult situation on the front,
- 2% of respondents perceive the proposal for a 30-day ceasefire as a step towards Ukraine's surrender.
After a telephone conversation between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, sociologists asked Ukrainians about their attitude to the demands for a ceasefire voiced by the Kremlin leader. After all, the Russian dictator demanded:
- to stop mobilization in Ukraine,
- to stop the supply of weapons and intelligence by the West to Kyiv.
"For the absolute majority of Ukrainians – 79% – Russian demands for a ceasefire are categorically unacceptable. 16% are ready to accept them (of which 14% consider this a difficult option)," sociologists emphasized.
Experts also emphasize that the absolute majority in all regions of Ukraine reject Putin's demands (80-81% in the West, Center, and South, and 64% in the East).
Also, 62% of respondents stated that they would categorically not support a temporary ceasefire without any security guarantees.
"If Ukraine receives at least some security guarantees, then more than half of Ukrainians (albeit reluctantly) will support a ceasefire. At the same time, the difference between different options for guarantees (in terms of support from the Ukrainian public) is quite insignificant," KIIS notes.
In particular, the option of deploying Western peacekeepers for a ceasefire is supported by 60% of respondents, and categorically opposed by 34%.
If the security guarantee is NATO membership, then 58% of Ukrainians will support a ceasefire, and 32% will be categorically opposed.
If support for the Ukrainian Defense Forces increases (more air defense, aircraft, etc.), then:
- 56% will support a ceasefire,
- 35% will be categorically opposed.
The study, conducted from March 12 to 22, surveyed 1,326 individuals aged 18 and over through telephone interviews using a random sample of mobile numbers. Participants were from all Ukrainian government-controlled regions. The sample excluded residents of territories not under Ukrainian control, though it included some internally displaced persons from those areas. The survey did not cover citizens who left the country after February 24, 2022.
Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 3.5% for indicators close to 50%, 3.1% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% for indicators close to 10%, 1.6% for indicators close to 5%.
In wartime, a certain systematic deviation is added in addition to the aforementioned formal error. However, sociologists believe the results still allow for a relatively reliable public sentiment analysis.
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As experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is demonstrating his disinterest in a negotiated ceasefire and continues to seek to destroy Ukrainian statehood.
In fact, Putin is demanding that Kyiv refuse to join NATO and internationally recognize the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions, and Crimea as Russian territories.
It should be noted that Putin and Trump discussed the settlement of Russia's war against Ukraine on March 18. The dictator actually refused Washington's proposal for a complete cessation, putting forward unworkable conditions for this.
On March 24, in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, after US representatives met with Ukrainian representatives the day before, the American and Russian delegations held new negotiations.
The day before, on March 23, Ukrainian and American delegations met in Saudi Arabia's capital to consider proposals for the security of energy facilities and infrastructure.
The White House stated that during the negotiations, they would try to achieve a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea for free navigation and discuss the "line of control." In addition, it was noted that Washington is asking Moscow to return deported Ukrainian children as one of the "confidence-building" measures.
At the same time, as The Moscow Times writes, citing its own sources, the Russian delegation in negotiations with the United States of America is demanding that the territories of four regions of Ukraine—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—be transferred under its control.
