Russian army advances in Donetsk region, attempting to encircle Velyka Novosilka – ISW

The situation in the west of the Donetsk region remains tense due to the tactical successes of the Russian troops. The occupiers seek to surround Velyka Novosilka and threaten Ukrainian supply lines, leading to the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.

Analysts report that Russian troops continue to achieve significant tactical successes in the west of the Donetsk region, approaching the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka and threatening Ukrainian lines of communication.

• Advance in Velyka Novosilka

Russian troops, particularly the 5th Tank Brigade units, have reached the eastern outskirts of Velyka Novosilka.

They are trying to surround the settlement and put pressure on Ukrainian forces holding this area.

Russian military bloggers claim that Russian troops are also advancing northeast and southeast of this settlement, trying to force Ukrainian forces to retreat.

• Attacks in the area of ​​Kurakhove and Vuhledar

Furthermore, the Russian military is conducting attacks towards the south.

According to geolocation data, Russian forces have occupied Peremohy Street in Kurakhove.

An advance is underway towards Romanivka, northeast of Vuhledar, and mechanized attacks are also being carried out near Illinka and Antonivka.

Several Russian military bloggers claimed on November 25 that Russian troops had captured Romanivka (northeast of Vuhledar) and had gained new positions in the fields near this settlement. While ISW currently has no confirmation that Russian forces are operating within Romanivka, geolocation footage released on November 24 shows two separate mechanized attacks by Russian platoons east of Romanivka near Illinka and Antonivka, indicating their advance towards the settlement.

Russian military bloggers indicate that Russian forces in the area are focused on forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat west towards Konstantynopolske (northwest of Vuhledar).

• Threat to logistical routes

The goal of Russian forces is to threaten Ukrainian logistical lines that provide supplies between the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

The Russian command seeks to level the front line and consolidate its positions in key settlements along the H15 highway.

• Russia's operational objective

Earlier, on November 24, ISW had already assessed that the Russian military command had several potential options for action on this front, and the Russian successes on November 24 and 25 correspond to two of these options:

• attempts to advance west from Kurakhove along the H15 highway to the Andriivka-Kostiantynopol line,
• attempts to bypass Velyka Novosilka and pose a threat to Ukrainian groups in the eastern part of the Zaporizhzhia region.

Analysts say that Russian forces have already seized positions along the H15 highway east of Kurakhove and will likely use new positions along Peremohy Street (which runs south perpendicular to the H15 highway) to further advance west through Kurakhove and along the H15 toward Dachne and Andriivka (both west of Kurakhove).

"Recent Russian advances to Peremohy Street in central Kurakhove place Russian forces about 15km east of Andriivka. Both Russian military bloggers and Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets identified Andriivka as the Russian operational-level objective west of Kurakhove because the seizure of Andriivka would afford Russian forces a stronger position from which to envelop a chain of settlements along the O0510 highway northwest and northeast of Vuhledar," the American experts stressed.

Analysts also note that Russian forces may continue to advance west along the H15 highway toward Andriivka while simultaneously attacking a "pocket" northeast of Vuhledar along the Uspenivka-Hannivka-Romanivka line to force Ukrainian troops to retreat west and avoid encirclement.

"Such a maneuver could enable Russian forces to seize tactical positions in the area and level the frontline from Sontsivka (northwest of Kurakhove) to Kostyantynopolske, placing Russian forces about 23km east of the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border at its closest point," ISW emphasized.

Key findings:

• Russian forces continue to make significant tactical advances in the western Donetsk region. They are coming closer to enveloping Velyka Novosilka and advancing towards important Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supplying the rest of the west of Donetsk region and running into the eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
• Russian advances in the western Donetsk region may become operationally significant if the Russian command properly exploits these recent tactical successes, which is not a given. Russian advances in the west of the Donetsk region do not automatically portend the collapse of the Ukrainian frontline.
• Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil depot in the Kaluga region and an airbase in the Kursk region on the night of November 24 to 25.
• Ukrainian military officials continue to warn of potential Russian ground operations against Zaporizhzhia City. However, the timeline and scale of this offensive operation remain unclear due to the operational constraints imposed by ongoing Russian operations in the Kursk and Donetsk regions.
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• Russian forces recently advanced in southwestern Toretsk and south and southeast of Pokrovsk.
• Russian command posts reportedly rely on Chinese-made radios for internal communications because Russia cannot domestically produce enough quality radios for the Russian military.