Russia intensifies strikes and information operations in Kharkiv, forcing residents to flee – ISW

The Kremlin has escalated its attacks and propaganda efforts toward the residents of Kharkiv. The Russians are actively destroying the city in an attempt to persuade Ukrainians to flee it and relocate millions of people within the country.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this.

The Russians are taking advantage of the limited capabilities of Ukrainian air defense and heightened tensions in Ukraine in anticipation of military assistance from the United States.

The Kremlin is using its spokespeople to spread fear among Ukrainians through coordinated propaganda, using concerns about Russia's planned offensive in Kharkiv as the basis for its information campaign.

According to ISW, the probability of a successful Russian ground attack on Kharkiv is very low if Ukraine quickly receives renewed military assistance from the United States.

Ukrainian officials have previously discussed the possibility that Russian forces could launch a ground operation against Kharkiv later this summer.

However, ISW analysts estimate that the Russians will not have the forces to capture the city until the Ukrainian military is adequately equipped.

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ISW Key Findings as of April 22:

• The Kremlin is conducting a concerted air and information operation to destroy Kharkiv City, convince Ukrainians to flee, and internally displace millions of Ukrainians ahead of a possible future Russian offensive operation against the city or elsewhere in Ukraine.
• Kremlin mouthpieces are seizing on concerns about a future Russian offensive operation against Kharkiv City to conduct a likely coordinated information operation to create outsized panic among Ukrainians. ISW assesses the likelihood of a successful Russian ground offensive against Kharkiv is very low if Ukraine receives renewed US military aid rapidly.
• Russia is intensifying strike and information operations against Ukrainians in Kharkiv City to exploit ongoing constraints on Ukrainian air defenses and heightened tensions in Ukraine in the likely relatively brief window before the anticipated arrival of US military assistance to frontline areas.
• Russian forces appear to be aiming to make a broad penetration of Ukrainian lines northwest of Avdiivka, Donetsk region. Still, the arrival of US and other Western aid to the frontline will likely blunt their ability to do so.
• The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on April 22 that Finland is taking concrete steps to protect itself against Russian hybrid operations weaponizing Russian-manufactured migrant crises on the Russian-Finnish border.
•  The Kremlin appears to be highlighting its relationship with Azerbaijan while downplaying deteriorating Russian-Armenia relations following Russia's failure to prevent Armenia's loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and the border area between the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
• The Russian state "Sudoplatov" volunteer drone initiative is reportedly equipping Russian military personnel operating in the Bakhmut direction with cheap and defective first-person view (FPV) drones.

For reference:

As reported, the troops of the Russian Federation have intensified their attacks on Kharkiv because the Kremlin wants to make this city an uninhabitable "grey zone."

The Russians destroyed the entire critical energy infrastructure of Kharkiv with missile and drone strikes.

The United States Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, said that Russia is shelling peaceful areas of the Kharkiv region to sow panic.

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