russian army will use up Iranian drone stock by May – ISW

If the russian army uses Iranian drones with intensity from September to December 2022, then the russian invaders will use 1750 Iranian drones by May 2023.

This is what the analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) calculated, Rubryka reports.

The Institute noted that russian forces are increasingly relying on Iranian-made drones in their campaign of strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure. And therefore, they have probably exhausted their current stocks of these systems.

According to ISW, the russian federation is likely to seek further bilateral cooperation with Iran to provide more precision weapons systems for use in Ukraine.

According to experts, russian troops will use all the promised 1,750 Iranian-made drones in Ukraine by May 2023, provided they will apply them at the same rate as in the period from September to December 2022.

The ministry of defense of russia has again changed the presentation and format of its daily operational summaries. Military analysts believe this approach aims to fill the information space with insignificant declared successes and divert attention from significant military failures.

The russian information space continues to use the official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS attack on the russian base in Makiivka to criticize problems in the russian military apparatus.

russia's ministry of defense (MoD) published an official response to the strike on January 4. Officials linked it to the "presence and massive use by personnel, contrary to prohibitions, of mobile phones in the range of the enemy's weapons systems."

At the same time, russian military bloggers criticized the russian military command for incompetence.

Many bloggers claimed that the russian military leadership does not understand the realities that russian soldiers face at the front. And that's why it tries to shift the blame for its own mistakes onto the "faceless mass" of russian conscripts.

As analysts of the institute note, the continuation of russian unit formation exclusively from mobilized conscripts will not lead to creating combat power commensurate with the personnel.

ISW's main conclusions regarding russia's war against Ukraine as of January 4:

• The continued construction of russian units exclusively from mobilized conscripts will not create combat power commensurate with the strength of personnel.
• The head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, said that Ukrainian troops intend to launch a large-scale counteroffensive across the territory of Ukraine in the spring of 2023.
• The occupiers continued limited counterattacks to recover lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line as Ukrainian strikes damaged russian military logistics in the Luhansk region.
• russian troops continued offensive operations around Bakhmut amid persistent signs that a broader offensive may be nearing its climax.
• The invaders also continued offensive operations on the western outskirts of Donetsk.
• In addition, they are restoring forces and continue to conduct defensive operations in the Kherson region.
• Some russian private arms manufacturers criticize the russian military campaign.
• On January 4, the russian occupation authorities continued to take measures to resolve administrative issues related to the consolidation of russian control over the occupied territories.