Ukraine as a buffer state? A bad idea

Source: NATO

Michiel Hilgeman

Political Commentator

Some European politicians are stating that Ukraine should be a buffer state. Hungarian prime minister Orban said in February 2024 that Ukraine should be a buffer zone between the West and Russia, and this month the Dutch party Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB) stated that it would be better that Ukraine would become a buffer state. These statements are aligned with Putin's narrative and Putin's view that Ukraine should not become a NATO member.

That Western politicians can decide if Ukraine becomes a buffer state does make you think about the old times from previous centuries when powerful (imperialistic) nations would divide and decide. Research indicates that the buffer states are more vulnerable to conquest. Furthermore, these statements also conflict with article 1 of the charter of the United Nations, which states that peoples have the right of self-determination and do not respect the sovereignty of Ukraine.

Instead of being a buffer state, it is better that Ukraine will join the EU and NATO to safeguard its position. In the past, promises have been made that Ukraine's sovereignty would be protected, but history taught us that promises are not guarantees. A vivid example that more guarantees are needed is that promises which were made in the Budapest Memorandum were not upheld. In 1994 Ukraine, the United States, the United Kingdom and the Russian Federation signed the Budapest Memorandum where it was agreed that Ukraine would denuclearize and that the US, the UK and Russia would respect the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine and would not attack Ukraine. Ukraine held its part of the bargain, but Russia did not. Russia has been crossing redlines and eventually literally borders. In 2014 the annexation of the Krym peninsula was the time that Russia literally crossed the border, starting the Russo-Ukrainian war, and in February 2022 Russia launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine.

To have more safety guaranties than the Budapest Memorandum, Zelensky proposed in his victory plan that Ukraine should receive a formal invitation to join NATO. At the Washington summit, NATO members confirmed that they support Ukraine, including a NATO membership. But up to now, it seems unlikely that an official invite will be sent soon.

Ukraine is also in the process of joining the European Union (EU), in 2022 Ukraine received its candidate status and in June 2024 the first conference was held marking the official start of the negotiations. The process is complicated, and it is hard for Ukraine to achieve all EU membership criteria during wartime, these factors make it less likely that Ukraine will join the EU any time soon.

The United States, EU and the European countries have contributed billions of euros to Ukraine. Most countries have been supportive of Ukraine, but pro-Russian Hungarian prime minister Orban is reluctant in supporting Ukraine. It has to be noted that pro-Russian parties are growing in France, Germany and Austria and if there are more changes in the political landscape more countries could reduce their support to Ukraine. The elections in the United States are also an uncertain factor for Ukraine, the outcome impacts the amount of help that Ukraine will receive and how fast Ukraine will be able to join NATO.

In the short term, the continuous financial and military support of Ukrainian allies are essential. Looking ahead, for a long-lasting peace, memberships of Ukraine to EU and NATO are preferred, because we have learned from the past that the promises are not sufficient to keep Ukraine safe from Russian aggression. It can be concluded that Ukraine becoming a buffer state is not a valid option.