US intelligence halt: Where things stand as Ukraine and US hold talks in Jeddah

Halting of intelligence sharing

On March 5, Sky News, citing a Ukrainian source, reported that the United States had halted intelligence-sharing with Ukraine. Initially, the restriction was described as "selective," affecting only information relevant to strikes deep inside Russia. However, the media outlet later updated its report, stating that the US had ceased all intelligence-sharing with Kyiv.

Subsequently, CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed that the United States had temporarily suspended both intelligence-sharing and arms deliveries to Ukraine. This was also corroborated by White House National Security Advisor Mike Walz.

According to The New York Times, in addition to intelligence used for targeting Russian assets, the US also stopped providing warnings about incoming Russian drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian military and civilian targets.

Former head of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Valerii Kondratiuk, told the NYT that Ukraine is no longer receiving intelligence from the US Department of Defense, particularly satellite imagery. However, he downplayed the impact, noting that European companies have their own satellites—though not all are focused on monitoring military deployments and movements.

The New York Times also reports that the CIA assisted Ukraine in establishing at least three secret intelligence collection bases. These facilities enable Ukraine to intercept Russian communications, reducing its reliance on US intelligence.

Meanwhile, Politico notes that Ukraine still receives approximately 80% of its intelligence from allies, primarily the United States.

On March 7, CNN, citing US defense officials, reported that the United States continues to share intelligence that helps Ukrainian forces defend themselves. However, the exchange of intelligence that Ukraine could use for strikes against Russian forces has reportedly been reduced. US Special Envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, also confirmed that the US has not halted intelligence-sharing for Ukraine's defense needs.

On March 6, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated that Ukraine is still unclear on the specifics of the US intelligence-sharing restrictions and is already working to secure alternative sources.

The New York Times reported that the initial plan was to suspend intelligence sharing for one to two weeks as part of an effort to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into negotiations with Russia.

On March 9, the US president announced that the pause in intelligence sharing with Ukraine was "about to" end. Later, US Secretary of State Mark Rubio suggested that Washington's suspension of military aid to Ukraine could be "resolved" during talks in Saudi Arabia.

Notably, delegations from Ukraine and the United States are scheduled to meet in Jeddah on March 11. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will not be attending the negotiations.

What are the consequences for Ukraine?

Politico reports that the pause in weapons and intelligence-sharing could hinder Ukraine's battlefield efforts, especially after Kyiv launched counterattacks in the east and targeted Russian oil and gas refineries. The pause may also weaken Ukraine's ability to detect and respond to incoming Russian airstrikes.

Meanwhile, BBC diplomatic correspondent Paul Adams notes that US intelligence has played a key role in Ukraine's military planning, helping coordinate offensives against Russian forces. Satellite data and intercepted radio communications have provided Ukrainian forces with real-time insights into Russian troop positions, movements, and strategies.

Adams emphasizes that without American intelligence, Ukraine would struggle to use long-range weapons as effectively, including US-supplied HIMARS and Storm Shadow missile systems. Additionally, Ukraine's air defense system partly relies on early warnings from US satellites, which track aircraft and missile launches deep inside Russian territory.

BBC war correspondent Pavel Aksyonov adds that American reconnaissance aircraft, operating along Ukraine's western borders and over the Black Sea, play a critical role in detecting and tracking Russian targets—primarily aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. US intelligence has also been instrumental in identifying and striking targets deep in Russian-held territory.

Is it possible to replace American intelligence?

On March 7, following reports of the suspension of intelligence-sharing, the American aerospace company Maxar Technologies announced that it had restricted Ukraine's access to its satellite imagery as part of its cooperation with the US government.

However, Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, a reserve Air Force officer and deputy director of a company that produces electronic warfare equipment, told Rubryka that Ukraine can still obtain satellite images. Previously, the Ukrainian military had free access to such imagery, but now they must purchase it. Additionally, European companies in the satellite imaging sector offer alternative sources.

Military officials support this view. According to Ekonomichna Pravda, which cited sources within Ukraine's Defense Forces, alternatives to US satellite images exist through commercial partnerships with private aerospace companies and European allies. One notable example is the cooperation between Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and the Finnish company ICEYE.

As part of this partnership, Ukrainian intelligence acquired an ICEYE satellite using 600 million UAH (approximately $14.4 mln) in donations from Ukrainians, collected by the Serhii Prytula Charitable Foundation in 2022—commonly referred to as the "people's satellite." This satellite utilizes Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) technology, which doesn't take traditional photographs but instead sends radar waves to the Earth's surface, creating highly accurate images regardless of weather conditions or time of day.

The success of this technology led to further investments. With funding from Rheinmetall and the German government, Ukraine purchased a second ICEYE satellite. Moreover, following an agreement with Rheinmetall last fall, Ukraine now has access to imagery from the entire ICEYE satellite constellation.

According to Khrapchynskyi, Ukraine possesses its own electronic reconnaissance systems capable of detecting Russian air targets, including missiles, tracking their flight paths, and facilitating their interception. He explains that the F-16 and Mirage-2000 aircraft, which are part of Ukraine's arsenal, are equipped with radar systems capable of identifying air targets within Ukrainian airspace.

"Ground systems notify, for example, which sector contains a certain number of missiles. The aircraft then flies to that sector and, using its own detection systems, searches for and intercepts the missiles," says Khrapchynskyi, who serves as deputy director of a company specializing in electronic warfare equipment.

Regarding early warning of Russian attacks—such as the takeoff of enemy strategic bombers or missile launches—Khrapchynskyi notes that Ukraine can receive data from NATO-operated early warning radar aircraft (AWACS), which patrol Ukraine's western borders.

Additionally, Khrapchynskyi highlights the role of reconnaissance drones in Ukraine's military operations. Short-range reconnaissance drones provide battlefield intelligence, monitoring combat zones and detecting enemy advances. Meanwhile, Ukraine also operates long-range unmanned aerial systems capable of flying up to 1,000 km into enemy territory, gathering intelligence on air defense positions, electronic warfare systems, and other critical infrastructure before returning. These drones can be equipped not only with cameras but also with electronic intelligence systems, enhancing data collection capabilities.

Khrapchinsky also underscores the importance of intelligence derived from open sources (OSINT), which continues to be a valuable resource for Ukraine.

The suspension of intelligence sharing is already impacting the Ukrainian military. The New York Times reports that it has hindered Ukraine's ability to detect and strike enemy forces in Russia's Kursk region, as well as to target key Russian military infrastructure.

In this context, Khrapchynskyi emphasizes that for Ukraine to reduce its reliance on the US, it must scale up production of its own intelligence-gathering assets, particularly drones. However, he acknowledges that this will take time.

In summary, while Ukraine can find alternatives to US intelligence, this transition will not be immediate. It will require closer cooperation with European partners, the commercialization of satellite imagery access, and the expansion of domestic intelligence capabilities.