Surrender to Moscow or play our own game: will Zelensky be able to end the war in Donbas by the end of the year?
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Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia on the war in Donbas are going through difficulties. Kremlin is ready to move forward only on its own terms – first elections, then the border.
Volodymyr Zelenskyi totally disagrees with such logic, but he is still promoting the idea that he will end this war this year. How? No one knows for sure.
What is on the Donbas field of negotiations right now and does the government have a chance to finish the was so soon – read in our piece on «Rubryka».
Zelenskyi VS Putin
The future meeting of counselors of the Heads of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France that was to be held on 28th, August in Paris was cancelled. The official reason provided by the Office of the President – the business trip of the French representative Emmanuelle Bonn.
At this meeting the delegations were to "synchronize their watches" and agree on a possible meeting within the framework of the "Norman Four" of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Volodymyr Putin. That is what Kyiv insists on, in particular.
As a result, the next stage of negotiations did not take place, and the "Norman meeting" yet again provided more questions than answers. While the Ukrainian side is still trying to keep a good face in a bad game, the Russian side does not develop the topic of negotiations on Donbas in public.
Photo Getty Images
Negotiations with Russia are very important for Kyiv and Zelenskyi's team now, and there are several reasons why.
Firstly, Zelenskyi needs a diplomatic victory on the Eastern Front, especially before the local elections. Therefore, he torpedoes this topic in every possible way, issuing ambitious statements.
For instance, in an interview with the Euronews channel, he said that the next meeting with Putin could completely end the war in Donbas region.
"The second meeting in the Normandy format shows that we have a great chance to end the war. If you compare our team to the previous one – the way I want it, no one ever wanted. Such a pace and so much pressure on this issue – no one has achieved that before, and everyone can see it now. And I'm not just talking about Ukrainians – all our foreign partners can see it. I know that no one will finish it faster than me," – Zelenskyi stressed.
Secondly, the head of state and the ruling party together still have strong support among Ukrainians. According to the latest data, this amount reaches more than 30%, which is currently a pretty good result.
As long as there is such a credit of trust, the "Servant of the People" (Sluha Narodu party) and the Office of the President are able to make legitimate decisions in public opinion. What will happen to that support in six months or a year? Not clear yet.
According to the preliminary information from the Office of the President, the meeting may take place before September 10. No more data yet. Earlier, President Zelenskyi said that the meeting of the leaders of the Four could take place in September.
What will happen to the Donbas region?
In Russia, there are reasons to hog the blanket. The official position of the Kremlin is that Ukraine, Germany and France simply could not agree in advance on the format of the final document.
Moscow has not achieved a significant result since the last meeting of the Heads in Paris. The mechanism for introducing the special status of Donbas into the Constitution has not been spelled out. There is also no progress on the "Steinmeier formula". That means that de facto there is no progress on the Donbas issue, other than a month of silence and a partial plan for the withdrawal of troops.
Kremlin does not seem to see any sense in meeting, especially when it is not on the terms of the Russian Federation. This position is indirectly confirmed by the representative of the Tripartite Contact Group in Minsk – Serhiy Garmash. He believes that Russia is "training" Germany and France, disrupting the meeting already announced by Ukrainian President and German Minister of Foreign Affairs.
"Russia does not benefit from the meeting of advisers on August 28. First of all, because of the letter from Kozak (Dmitry Kozak, Zamglai of the Presidential Administration), in which he stated that he would no longer participate (loss of face); secondly, because of the desire to postpone: "We will not cling to trifles," – said Leonid Kravchuk (1st President of Ukraine) in an interview with Gordon. (Dmytro Gordon, Ukrainian journalist", – Garmash emphasized on his Facebook page.
Foreign affair expert Andriy Buzarov, commenting on the situation around the negotiation process in general, explains that the peace in Donbas is possible only if Russia desires it. Therefore, Ukraine has to put up with the fact that Russia sets its own conditions.
"The end of the war was promised to us last year, but it did not happen. The issue is more about a ceasefire and it is not yet possible. A big advantage is that Zelenskyi has managed to cease fire politically, but it's difficult to say how long it will last.
The main reason why Russia doesn't want to intensify the Minsk negotiations – it is not globally interested in resolving the conflict, and regionally – Kremlin does not believe that Kyiv can make concessions in terms of implementing the "Steinmeier formula", troop deployment etc. To put it simply, Russian leadership doesn`t trust its Ukrainian colleagues," – Buzarov said in a comment to "Rubryka".
Photo Getty Images
Apparently, Volodymyr Zelenskyi is going to face a choice in the upcoming months, where he will have several real options. The further fate of Donbas also depends on his decision. The options are the following:
The first option is to make concessions to Russia gradually. That is, to start implementing the "Steinmeier formula", and to prepare a special status for Donbas to hold elections. From a technical point of view, it's possible, all the power is now concentrated (albeit with difficulty) in his single hands. But from the reputational point of view – it is very difficult, as the reaction of society is very difficult to predict. To gather a new "Maidan" for the opponents of the Ze-team together with the outraged public is quite possible.
The second option is to abandon concessions and freeze the positions. It is impossible to admit publicly that Donbas or Crimea cannot be returned on the terms favorable to Ukraine. This position is understandable, but it can provoke a mixed reaction from several European partners and a certain part of society. Russia's reaction is also not easy to predict in such a situation. Moreover, it is possible that Kremlin will simply escalate the conflict.
The third one is to prolong the negotiations as much as possible, which is basically what's happening right now. However, it is still unclear for how much longer Vladimir Putin's and his team's patience is going to last.
