Picture of 45th week of war: russia’s fake Christmas ceasefire
Also about the New Year’s attacks by russian-iranian drones, transfer of new heavy equipment to Ukraine, the destruction of hundreds of invaders with one HIMARS shot, the main economic achievements of 2022 - in our timeline. We tell you how the situation changed in the first week of 2023.
"Christmas truce" from the russian federation
On January 5, the blind man of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, who is opening the russian war against Ukraine, suddenly announced that he was calling for a "Christmas truce", or "Orthodox people attend service on Christmas Eve and on the day of the Nativity of Christ." After that, russian president putin instructed the Minister of Defense to implement a ceasefire from 12:00 on January 6 to 24:00 on January 7 "along the entire front line of the conflict." The Ministry of Defense of the russian federation claims that the temporary regime of silence has already begun to operate.
Ukraine rejected all proposals for a "ceasefire". As Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the President's Office, noted, the "temporary truce" can begin when the aggressor leaves the territory of Ukraine. Ukraine's international partners did not support putin's idea either.
Experts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that by announcing the "Christmas truce" putin wanted to damage Ukraine's reputation and seize the initiative on the battlefield. He may have sought to provide a 36-hour pause for Russian forces to allow them to recover and reorient to resume offensive operations in critical areas of the front.
ISW notes that such a pause would bring disproportionate trade to Russian forces and begin to deprive Ukrainian initiatives.
Southern area
A heavy positional war continues in the south of Ukraine. Mortars, artillery, tanks, aircraft and drones of the Russians are constantly shelling populated areas of Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhya, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. As noted in the General Staff, the main purpose of shelling of civilian and critical infrastructure is to destabilize the humanitarian situation and force the local population into the so-called "voluntary evacuation". The occupiers are also strengthening their positions and mining the area along the left bank of the Dnipro River.
In the evening of January 2, it became known that the Ukrainian military had erected a blue-yellow flag on the Velikiy Potemkinsky island between the left and right banks of the Dnieper near Kherson. At the same time, there is no talk of liberating the island yet. Later, the press service of the Defense Forces of the Tavria direction added that now all the islands near Kherson are located in the "grey zone", which is not controlled by either Ukrainian or Russian troops.
Eastern area
Heavy fighting continues in Donbas. russian troops still do not stop trying to take Bakhmut. At the same time, Ukrainian forces are getting closer to Kreminnaya in the Luhansk Region.
Although the battle for Bakhmut is still ongoing, according to British intelligence, the period of the strongest offensive of Russian forces near Bakhmut has already passed and further Russian successes in this area, at least in the near future, are unlikely. Over the past 10 days, Ukraine has sent significant reinforcements to defend this sector, and the frequency of attacks by russian forces appears to have decreased compared to the peak in mid-December.
The head of the military administration of the Donetsk region, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said that as a result of military operations, Bakhmut was destroyed by more than 60%.
The head of the Luhansk military administration, Serhiy Gaidai, said that the Kreminna-Svatov highway, an important logistical artery of the Luhansk region, is under the fire control of Ukrainian defenders, and now the logistics of the occupiers have become much more difficult. Considering the successes of the Armed Forces in this direction, the de-occupation of Kreminnaya seems to be a matter of weeks. This will allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to control the main roads to other large cities of Luhansk region — Severodonetsk and Lysychansk — and will expand the bridgehead for further offensives by Ukrainian troops in the region.
On New Year's Eve, while the russian federation was terrorizing the civilian population of Kyiv with drones, the Defense Forces of Ukraine struck the base of the russian military in the occupied Makiivka, Donetsk region, in the building of the local vocational school. As a result, 400 occupiers were killed and 300 were wounded.
The losses were so significant that even the Ministry of Defense of the russian federation had to report them (despite underestimating them to about 90 people). Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War emphasized that the russian Ministry of Defense is trying to shift the blame for these losses to the officials of the so-called "DPR" and the mobilized themselves.
The situation in the occupied territories
The occupiers plan to conduct a new wave of mobilization among the population of the occupied territories of southern Ukraine, the Center of National Resistance reports. The Central Committee noted that in the occupied territories, the russians will conscript everyone who has a russian passport into the army, as the Kremlin is not going to make exceptions for the "new regions".
The General Staff also reports that mobilization continues in the occupied Crimea. Military commissariats are checking the lists of persons subject to conscription for mobilization in 2023.
In addition, russian invaders continue to commit illegal actions against local residents of other occupied territories. Thus, the principle of "collective responsibility" was applied to the residents of the Luhansk village of Polovinkine. They were accused of working for the Defense Forces of Ukraine after the successful practice of Ukrainian artillery on enemy positions. russian troops surrounded the entire village and immediately repressed 30 of its inhabitants.
Borders' protection
The situation on the border with belarus remains stable and under control. According to the Ministry of Defense of belarus, personnel, weapons, military and special equipment of the Russian Armed Forces will continue to arrive in the country. Combat coordination measures and joint flight-tactical exercises are planned at the belarusian training grounds in order to increase the level of combat training of the aviation units of both countries.
An Il-76 A-50U aircraft, intended for escorting air and surface targets, arrived at the Belarusian airfield in Machulyshchy from Russia. Last time this plane arrived in Belarus on February 24, 2022.
Although russia's maneuvers continue, there is currently no reason to talk about the imminent danger of an invasion from the north. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia's depletion of both its own and Belarusian reserves of artillery ammunition is another indicator that a Russian offensive from Belarus in the coming months is unlikely.
Controlled and liberated territories of Ukraine
In 2023, Ukraine plans to increase the financing of programs for the restoration of the country, primarily destroyed housing, at the expense of confiscated assets of Russian banks. UAH 17 billion of seized funds should be transferred for this purpose, said Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal. He noted that UAH 35.5 billion has been allocated in the state budget for the current year for the Fund for the Liquidation of the Consequences of Armed Aggression. This is the construction and repair of public buildings, critical infrastructure facilities, housing for displaced persons.
Critical infrastructure
On the first two nights of the new year, the enemy attacked Ukraine (mainly Kyiv and the Kyiv region) with Shahed-131/136 kamikaze drones and missiles. On the night of January 1, defenders of the Ukrainian sky shot down 45 "shaheeds" (drones), from January 1 to January 2 – about 40 more. And although some of them were able to damage critical infrastructure objects, only the second mass attack led to emergency power outages in the capital.
However, thanks to the work of the Air Defense Forces, the efficiency of the energy workers, and the abnormally warm weather, it was possible to avoid a significant aggravation of the situation with the light. Already on January 3, the capital returned to the stabilization schedules of light.
Unfortunately, Kherson Oblast was less fortunate. Due to enemy shelling on New Year's Eve, Kherson and surrounding settlements were left without electricity.
The head of Ukrenergo, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, said that although in theory there is a possibility of a complete blackout, in practice he does not see such a danger at the moment.
Important events
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to invite Volodymyr Zelensky to this year's G7 summit, which will be held in Hiroshima on May 19-21, reports the Japanese publication Nikkei. The President of Ukraine has to join the meeting of the "Group of Seven" in online format. The Japanese prime minister wants to invite Zelensky to hear directly from him about the current situation in Ukraine.
Purchase prices for natural gas in Europe have fallen to the lowest level since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine. On the TTF (a virtual trading platform in the Netherlands), February purchase prices fell by 4.67% to around €73, almost five times lower than in August 2022. This is attributed to the successful filling of storage before the cold season and very warm winter. For the rssian federation, which was sure that Europe would not be able to successfully pass the winter without its gas, this is bad news. If the trend continues, it can significantly reduce the filling of russia's budget, because a significant part of it is income from the sale of energy carriers.
We are supported
The new year for Ukraine also began with the transition to a new level of military support from partners. Immediately, three countries — the United States, France, and Germany — volunteered to provide us with heavy armored vehicles.
France announced the transfer of AMX-10 RC heavy armored personnel carriers, which are also classified as wheeled tanks, to Ukraine. They are fast, maneuverable and have a 105 mm gun capable of dealing with enemy armored vehicles.
Ukraine will also receive Bastion armored vehicles.
The US has included approximately 50 Bradley fighting vehicles in a new arms package for Ukraine worth about $2.8 billion. It is a well-armored and armed with a powerful 25-mm cannon and TOW anti-tank missiles, which is able to significantly increase the ground combat capabilities of the Armed Forces.
In addition, the US will provide Ukraine with Sea Sparrow anti-aircraft missiles with radar guidance for the first time. Such missiles can be fired from sea or land to intercept cruise missiles or aircraft.
Germany also plans to take its military support to Ukraine to a new level. It should supply Ukraine with up to 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles. In addition, the supply of armored vehicles can happen quickly, since the manufacturer has these old models in warehouses and they have already been repaired.
In addition, Germany will supply Ukraine with an additional battery of the Patriot anti-missile defense system, as well as additional Gepard installations. According to Spiegel, negotiations are ongoing with two countries that still have stocks of Gepard systems and large quantities of 35 mm ammunition for them.
Economiс trends
Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal named the main economic achievements of 2022. A key achievement is that the government managed to maintain control over economic and financial processes. 2/3 of all budget funds are internal resources of the state. However, the contribution of our international partners, who provided financial support to Ukraine in the amount of 31.2 billion dollars, of which 45% are grants, is also significant. Also, the EU, Great Britain, Canada and Australia canceled import duties for Ukrainian exporters.
According to the prime minister, almost all business inspections have been canceled, most permits and licenses have been transferred to the declarative principle, and a single tax rate of 2% has been established. And more than 700 enterprises were able to relocate to safe areas. Current business support programs were also improved and new programs launched: preferential loans "5-7-9%" (72 billion UAH), eRobota grants (2.2 billion UAH), portfolio guarantees (47 billion UAH).
As part of the "grain initiative", Ukraine managed to export 15 million tons of agricultural products, and another 10 million tons through the Danube ports. In order to overcome the fuel crisis, it was possible to increase fuel imports 10 times.
Solutions
In Ukraine, in cooperation with the Ministry of Health, a new charitable project "Neopalimi" was launched. Its purpose is to provide comprehensive free treatment for military personnel, volunteers, civilians and children who have received burns and scars as a result of military actions, in order to restore the functionality of the affected parts of the body and return to normal life.
The project team has already established cooperation with 12 clinics, where the treatment process will take place for about 200 patients every month. Professional specialists and a team of volunteers are involved in the project, the latest laser equipment and high-quality medical drugs are used. The work is carried out with the support of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine and with the help of partners.
