Picture of 44rd week of war: New Year amid russian attacks
About the brilliant work of the Ukrainian air defense forces, the demolition of the Russian forces near Bakhmut, the armed forces near Kreminna, the economic results of the year and the possible transfer of infantry fighting vehicles from the USA and anti-missile defense from Italy - in our chronicle. We will tell you how the situation changed in the last week of 2022.
South area
There were no significant changes in the south of Ukraine during the week. The positional war continues. The occupiers shelled populated areas of Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhya, and Dnipropetrovsk regions hundreds of times with mortars, artillery, tanks, aircraft, and kamikaze drones. The enemy concentrated the greatest amount of fire on Kherson. Civilian, industrial and critical infrastructures are constantly bombarded. The russians are doing everything to make normal life in the city impossible, as they did in Mykolaiv before. So, on December 27, they fired at the maternity ward of a local hospital. Fortunately, no one was hurt.
The transfer of personnel and military equipment to the occupied large cities of the south – Melitopol, Berdyansk, etc. – continues. Probably, the russians see a potential threat in this direction from the Armed Forces.
Eastern area
The eastern direction remains the "most difficult". Attempts by the russian offensive to capture or surround the city continue near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region. The Institute for the Study of War suggests that russian attempts to capture Bakhmut are close to culmination, as was the case in Kherson Oblast in August. That is, it is likely that the forces of the russian federation will soon not be able to continue their offensive and will have to take a defensive position or perform an operational pause. As experts note, the troops of the occupiers have noticeably degraded — they already lack personnel and ammunition.
Analysts suggest that the Russian advance in the Bakhmut area will continue to slow down and possibly stop altogether if the troops stationed there do not receive significant reinforcements in manpower and ammunition in the near future.
The Ukrainian offensive on the city of Kreminna, Luhansk region, continues in its turn. The de-occupation of the city will allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to control the main roads to other large cities of Luhansk region — Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
It will also expand the bridgehead for the further offensive of Ukrainian troops in the region. The operation also has an important moral and psychological significance, because for the kremlin, the "liberation" (occupation) of this region is the key justification for the war.
russian troops are trying to counterattack and hold on to the occupied borders. russia has strengthened the front line in the area by building extended defenses and will likely make it a priority to hold the front line along it.
The situation in the occupied territories
Crime continues to grow rapidly in the occupied territories. A high-profile crime in Makiivka, Donetsk region, became vivid proof. There, criminals shot a family of 8 people, including 4 children. The occupation authorities said that the killers were ordinary robbers and that they had already been caught. But the adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, Petro Andryushchenko, assumes that the murder is the work of the "Wagner group". According to him, this crime was openly nationalist in nature, as a family of Roma nationality was killed. In addition, all those killed have bullet wounds to the head from close range. Andryushchenko noted that the residents of Makiiv themselves reported that the crime was committed by the russian military.
In the temporarily occupied cities of the Luhansk region, people cut down trees en masse to heat their homes, the Luhansk Regional Military Administration said. The situation with the heating season in the large occupied cities of the Luhansk region is critical, there is practically no centralized heating, so people are forced to heat their homes independently.
Protection of borders
The situation with Belarus remains stable and controlled by the Defense Forces of Ukraine. As noted by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the russian federation, russian forces of the russian federation continue to raise their level of training, conducting training at Belarusian training grounds, where they currently have up to 11,000 personnel and more than 400 units of armed military equipment of the occupying country.
In total, only 22,000 Russian servicemen are currently stationed on the territory of Belarus, the bordering Bryansk and Kursk regions of russia near Ukraine, which is half the number before the full-scale invasion on February 24 and the attack on Kyiv. Therefore, the enemy currently has no real forces to attack the north of Ukraine.
Also, as of December 29, Russia removed from the territory of Belarus all stocks of ammunition for artillery systems and rocket launcher systems, which were created on the eve of the attack on Ukraine.
At the same time, the russian federation is expanding its control over military airfields in Belarus. Additional work on the equipment of the Machulyshchi, Baranovichi, Lunynets airfields and the adjacent infrastructure is ongoing.
Controlled and liberated territories of Ukraine
Despite the war, Ukraine maintains a high level of telecommunication services. And Internet coverage in general has become the largest in Europe. This year, more than 130,000 Ukrainians in 420 villages were able to connect their homes to the Internet for the first time. And 1,140 social institutions received Wi-Fi. More than 2,500 Ukrainian schools already have Wi-Fi in shelters. Over 22,000 Starlink terminals were used to provide Internet services during the year, the Ministry of Digital Affairs notes.
The National Bank of Ukraine and systemically important banks have created a joint network of thousands of branches that will work in case of long-term power outages. The initiative was named POWER BANKING. Branches of the joint network are equipped with alternative energy sources and backup communication channels, have enhanced cash collection and additional staff.
СThe situation with critical infruscture
As predicted, on the eve of the New Year, on December 29 and 31, the russians launched another missile attack on Ukraine. However, thanks to the brilliant work of the Ukrainian air defense forces, the Russian Federation was unable to ensure that Ukrainians met the New Year holidays in a blackout. 58 out of 70 Russian cruise missiles were destroyed. Including 16 out of 16 missiles that tried to attack Kyiv. And although some of the missiles were able to hit critical infrastructure objects, cause significant damage to the network and some power plants, it did not lead to serious long-term consequences for the power system.
Immediately after the shelling, emergency power cuts began across the country. The situation was particularly difficult in the west of Ukraine, in the Kyiv and Odesa regions. Yes, 90% of Lviv temporarily remained without electricity. The subway was stopped in Kharkiv. However, the restoration of the Ukrainian energy system continues at a rapid pace. Thus, already on December 30, Kyiv, which previously had one of the most difficult situations with its electricity supply, returned to the stabilization schedules of power outages.
On the night of December 29-30, the Russians tried to strike the power system again, this time with kamikaze drones. However, defeat awaited them here as well – the Defense Forces of Ukraine destroyed 16 kamikaze drones that attacked Ukraine from the south-eastern and northern directions.
This week, the Cabinet of Ministers approved a decision to simplify the conditions for constructing overhead power lines and substations. During martial law, the government canceled the requirement to conduct an environmental impact assessment for such facilities. Such a decision is necessary to restore the power system faster. As noted by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, since the beginning of the full-scale war, the Russian Federation has damaged more than 700 critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine.
Important events
On Thursday, December 29, during another massive missile attack on Ukraine by the russian federation, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported that the country's air defenses shot down a Ukrainian missile from the S-300 air defense system. Due to the fall of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile complex on the territory of belarus, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the country summoned the Ambassador of Ukraine Ihor Kyzym, who strongly protested. The authorities of Belarus demanded that Ukraine "conduct a thorough investigation of all the circumstances of the launch of the specified missile, bring the guilty parties to justice and take comprehensive measures to prevent the recurrence of similar incidents in the future."
Perhaps russia and/or the self-proclaimed president of belarus Lukashenko will try to "spin" this incident in order to present it to the society of their countries and the international community as "an act of aggression of Ukraine against belarus". The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine announced its readiness to participate in the investigation of the incident with the fall of the missile. The Ukrainian side does not rule out a deliberate provocation by the terrorist state of russia, which laid such a route for its cruise missiles in order to provoke their interception in the airspace over the territory of belarus.
Finnish parliament members Anders Adlerkreutz and Atte Harianne called on the country's authorities to make a decision on transferring Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine to counter a full-scale russian invasion. If the deputies achieve their goal, it can really become a precedent, after which other countries will also dare to provide Ukraine with modern tanks, which the Armed Forces desperately need.
We are supported
In 2023, Britain will allocate 2.3 billion pounds to support Ukraine. Ukraine will be provided with weapons that correspond to the Soviet models of the equipment of the Armed Forces. The partner country also recently handed over 1,000 VALLON metal detectors and 100 bomb disposal kits to Ukraine to help clear minefields and make the recovered area, civilian homes and infrastructure safe.
Bloomberg reports that the US is considering providing Ukraine with Bradley fighting vehicles as part of a further package of military support. However, the media outlet notes that the final decision has not yet been made. The Bradley is well-armored and armed with a powerful 25 mm cannon and TOW anti-tank missiles, which are able to significantly increase the ground combat capabilities of the Armed Forces.
Italy is considering providing air defense systems to protect Ukrainian skies. According to journalist sources, it may be about the latest SAMP/T and Aspide systems. According to their characteristics, they are able to cover critical infrastructure from ballistic and cruise missiles and would significantly strengthen our air defense forces.
The German Federal Agency for Technical Assistance (THW) purchased about 480 generators and has already delivered 196 of them to Ukraine to stabilize the energy infrastructure.
The Swiss light artist Gerry Hofstetter came to Ukraine to illuminate the cultural objects of Kyiv with his installations, thereby supporting Ukrainians on the eve of the New Year holidays. Light installations took place on the buildings of the Church of St. Nicholas, the Central Railway Station, the Motherland and others. Projections with Ukrainian state symbols, Christmas-themed abstractions, embroidery, sunflowers and other images appeared there.
Economic tendencies
Despite the recovery in the second quarter, Ukraine's economy remains depressed, the NBU notes in the Report on Financial Stability. GDP will fall by about a third this year, and will grow more slowly than expected in 2023 due to a hit to energy infrastructure.
However, as the National Bank emphasizes, thanks to the strength that the banking system received earlier, reforms and regular stress testing, it passes the real stress test quite well. Trust in the banking system is maintained, the system maintains liquidity and continues to lend. However, despite the fact that the financial sector operates smoothly, it suffers corresponding and significant losses. These are both unearned income and additional costs for arranging branches for work during blackout periods.
Solutions
Uniforms and underwear for military women have been tested in Ukraine, after which the clothes will be approved as official. Together with volunteers, the Ministry of Defense produced two versions of the suit and underwear for servicewomen, which will be tested during experimental wearing in military units. After testing the form and receiving comments and wishes from military servicewomen, the manufacturer will finalize the copies.
Currently, 41,000 women serve in the Armed Forces, and about 19,000 more are civilian workers who work for the needs of the army. A comfortable and ergonomic shape and ammunition for them is something that can increase both the efficiency and well-being of our female defenders.
Recommendations for Ukrainians
On the eve of the New Year and Christmas, it is worth taking care of access to medical care in advance, which can be complicated both by a blackout and by the overload of doctors or their vacations. The National Health Service of Ukraine has provided advice on what to do in order not to be left without access to the medicine during the holidays:
- Check the family doctor's schedule in case he plans to take a vacation.
- Agree on a method of communication with the family doctor. Find out if the doctor can quickly write a referral or prescription under the Medical Guarantee Program.
- Check and, if necessary, update the home first aid kit. If you are a member of the Affordable Medicines program, check to see if you are running out of the drugs you receive through it.
- Find out the alternative emergency number, because the number "103" may be overloaded.
