Picture of 42nd week of war: will russia try to invade Kyiv again?
Also, about the 9th package of EU sanctions, 30 million light bulbs from the European Commission and the new counteroffensive of the Armed Forces - in our chronicle. We tell you how the situation changed during the week from December 12 to 17.
Southern area
It could be summarized that a heavy positional war continues in the south of Ukraine. In the Kherson region, the russians shelled peaceful settlements several hundred times a week with artillery, tanks, mortars, and small arms fire. The critical and civil infrastructure of Kherson, including the building of the Kherson Regional State Administration, suffered numerous destructions.
Dozens of people have been injured, including an 8-year-old boy who died. And on December 15, due to strikes on the energy infrastructure of de-occupied Kherson, the city was completely cut off.
In the Zaporizhzhya region, the occupiers are holding positions and expanding their group. This direction is one of the most important now, because successful counter offensives have already taken place in other regions.
Eastern area
This area becomes the hardest. The situation remains unstable near the cities of Avdiivka and Bakhmut. The enemy continues to try to capture or surround these two cities. However, the Armed Forces are confidently holding the defense. russian troops have not had any operational success.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that russian forces may launch an offensive in the west of Donetsk Oblast to try to capture the entire region.
In the Luhansk region, the Ukrainian army is advancing in the Svatove-Kreminna direction, Serhiy Gaidai, the head of the Luhansk military administration, reports. However, the situation remains difficult. The occupiers are constantly transferring new forces, including mobilized ones, in this direction. However, according to Gaidai, the Armed Forces will no longer see professional russian soldiers here on the battlefield.
Occupied lands
In occupied settlements, russians widely use sanatoriums and maternity homes as military hospitals. In particular, the occupiers transferred all hospitals of the Luhansk Region to the service of the russian military. Due to the numerous losses among the personnel of the russians, they refuse medical care to civilians.
Ukrainian special forces and partisans continue their actions in the occupied regions. In the suburbs of occupied Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhya region, a bridge was blown up by which the russian invaders were transporting military equipment from the east.
In occupied settlements, russians widely use sanatoriums and maternity homes as military hospitals. In particular, the occupiers transferred all hospitals in the Luhansk Region to the service of the russian military. Due to the numerous losses among the personnel of the russians, they refuse medical care to civilians.
Ukrainian special forces and partisans continue their actions in the occupied regions. In the suburbs of occupied Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhya region, a bridge was blown up by which the russian invaders were transporting military equipment from the east.
Borders' protection
In the north of Ukraine, on the border with belarus, the situation remains relatively stable. On December 13, belarus began a sudden check of the combat readiness of the army. One of the military units was tasked with covering and guarding an object on the border with Ukraine. But on December 15, belarus started returning to the place of permanent deployment.
The State Border Service of Ukraine currently does not detect units capable of carrying out an invasion on the border with Belarus, and called the inspection of the Belarusian army an incitement of the situation. The General Staff also assessed the probability of an attack by an aggressor state from the territory of Belarus as low. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is convinced that an invasion of Ukraine by the Belarusian army is extremely unlikely due to the internal dynamics in the country.
At the same time, Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov believes that Russian troops are preparing for a new large-scale offensive in February next year. However, the Ukrainian forces do not plan to simply wait for them. In an interview with The Economist, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valery Zaluzhny, said that although the available resources of the Ukrainian army are not enough to retake all the occupied territories, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing offensive operations, and one of them is "already on the way." And Ukraine will be able to reach the front line on February 23 if it has 300 tanks, about 700 infantry fighting vehicles and half a thousand howitzers.
Controlled and liberated territories of Ukraine
Despite the war, Ukrainians are preparing for the New Year holidays. Thus, according to a Deloitte survey, 61% of Ukrainians do not plan to give up New Year's shopping, and more than 60% of citizens will spend at least part of their shopping budget on helping the Armed Forces or war victims. At the same time, the budget of 49% of Ukrainians for shopping ranges from 1 to 5 thousand UAH. The focus of shopping is on the essentials — food products, goods for children, clothes and shoes.
This week, the Verkhovna Rada completed the implementation of all recommendations of the European Commission, which were necessary for the start of negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU. This was announced by the Speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament, Ruslan Stefanchuk.
Thus, over the past six months, Ukraine has adopted the reform of the Constitutional Court, the law on media, the law on national minorities, laws on combating money laundering. The Verkhovna Rada also continued judicial reform by electing two members of the Supreme Council of Justice according to its quota.
Critical infrastructure
On Friday, December 16, the russian federation launched another massive missile attack on the electricity infrastructure of Ukraine. Out of 76 enemy missiles, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 60. The northern, southern and central regions of the country suffered the greatest damage, where approximately 9 generation facilities were damaged, and the generation of nuclear plants was also limited. As a result of the shelling, there was a loss of more than 50% of the consumption of the country's unified energy system, and "Ukrenergo" announced the onset of an emergency situation for participants in the electricity market.
Emergency blackouts were introduced across the country. Kharkiv, Poltava, and a large part of Kyiv remained without electricity. There are problems with water supply and heat. In the capital, the subway was stopped until the end of the day.
As a result of past shelling, the difficult situation with light also remains in Odesa. Due to the severity of the damage and bad weather, the work is taking longer.
Ukraine needs $1 billion to quickly restore critical infrastructure to get through the winter, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced at the International Conference in Paris the agreement on the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant occupied by russian troops. According to him, negotiations on terms are ongoing.
Important events in the world that affect the war in Ukraine
At a virtual meeting on Monday, December 12, the leaders of the "Great Seven" (G7) agreed to continue supporting Ukraine, in particular financially, in its war with Russia. Their statement also announced that the G7 would create a "multilateral donor coordination platform together with Ukraine and international partners" to support Ukraine's recovery.
The EU Council approved on Friday, December 16, the ninth package of new sanctions aimed at increasing pressure on russia in connection with its war against Ukraine. About 200 individuals and companies will be added to the sanctions list, including military personnel, representatives of the defense industry, members of parliament, ministers, governors and politicians, etc. Sanctions will also be introduced against three more russian banks, additional export restrictions for dual-purpose goods, and measures to complicate russia's access to drones.
In an attempt to soften the international resonance and not violate the resolution of the UN Security Council, Iran plans to transfer to Russia only missiles with a range of less than 300 kilometers and to modify other missiles so that they do not go beyond the scope of the resolution, Axios reports. We are talking, in particular, about the Fateh-110 missile system.
We are supported
The European Union agreed to pay Ukraine 18 billion euros in macro-financial assistance in 2023. It will be provided in the form of soft loans.
The US is finalizing plans to send the Patriot anti-missile defense system to Ukraine, CNN reports. The Patriot is an advanced long-range air defense system that is highly effective against ballistic and cruise missiles. If received, it will become an extremely important element of Ukraine's anti-missile defense system and will make Russian missile attacks even less effective.
The European Commission will finance about 30 million LED lamps for Ukraine. They are planned to replace incandescent lamps in parts of the population, social facilities and a number of state institutions during the winter. This will significantly reduce the deficit of electricity in the country.
Germany handed Ukraine additional missiles for the IRIS-T air defense system, as well as two armored repair and evacuation vehicles, 30,000 shells for 40-mm grenade launchers, five thousand 155-mm artillery ammunition, four ambulances, and 18 heavy trucks. The country also announced the allocation of another 50 million euros in winter aid to Ukraine.
Canada will provide $85 million to restore Ukraine's energy system, as well as 50 lighting towers that will make it easier for energy workers to repair the network at night.
Norway will hand over ten bridges to Ukraine to help restore normal communications in regions where bridges have been destroyed as a result of hostilities.
On Wednesday, December 14, the European Parliament held a solemn ceremony for the presentation of the Sakharov Parliamentary Prize, which this year was awarded to "the brave people of Ukraine represented by President Zelensky, elected leaders and civil society."
Also this week, the European Parliament recognized the Holodomor of 1932-1933 as genocide of the Ukrainian people. And the Polish Seimas adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.
Economic tendencies
If russia continues its massive missile attacks on infrastructure, the Ukrainian economy may shrink by up to 50%, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said. Now the fall is predicted at the level of 35-40%.
The negative balance of Ukraine's foreign trade in goods in January-October this year increased by 2.6 times compared to the same period in 2021.
Solutions
On the Prometheus platform, 12 free online courses dedicated to overcoming the challenges of wartime will be created for Ukrainians. They will be directed to the psychological support of veterans and their families, as well as victims of sexual violence by the occupiers during the war. One can also learn about digital security, countering disinformation, helping internally displaced people, employment opportunities for vulnerable populations, and more.
Currently, free registration for three online courses is available on the platform:
- My own therapist. Psychological self-help tools for veterans
- How to find a job during the war
- Media literacy: how not to be manipulated?
Also, Rybryka made a guide for Ukrainians to make this winter warmer.
