How the world reacts to Russia’s behavior: what’s happening not in words but in deeds

Rubryka asked the experts what our partners are doing, what is wrong with Muraiev, whether everything is fine with Germany, how our relations with America are, and what is happening in the East.

We'll give a spoiler to the main solution at once: keep calm and filter the reasons for panic.

Gas, Germany, and blocking sanctions

The commander of the German Navy, Kay-Achim Schönbach, said in an interview that Ukraine would never return Crimea, and Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted the respect he deserved. The world was outraged; Schönbach resigned. But Germany gives reason to believe that the former commander of its naval forces has voiced not only his opinion but also the unspoken position of the government.

For example, Germany has banned Estonia from transferring weapons to Ukraine. It opposed the exclusion of Russia from the Swift international payment system, and instead of joining in the development of sanctions against Russia, it acted as if trying to avoid them.

They're trying to reach Germany

The political analyst of the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Maria Zolkina, explains that now Ukraine and Germany are most divided by the desire of the latter to preserve Nord Stream 2.

"Now that Russia is trying to completely reshape and reset its relations with the West and with Ukraine, Germany's position looks like political appeasement of the aggressor.

That is, whatever the Germans declare, the German government and its actions add pros and cons to Russia's position. First, it is weaponry, because one of the key needs of Ukraine is finance and the latest weapons. And the second critical point is Nord Stream 2 and sanctions against Russia.

According to diplomatic sources, we know that there is no clear consensus between Germany, the EU, and the United States on what sanctions to impose. Moreover, instead of developing the toughest sanctions, Germany wants assurances from the United States that it will not impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2. They want to be sure that it will work," the expert explains.

At the same time, various Ukrainian and international communities are turning to Germany, and the United States is also in talks with it. Ukrainian officials are counting on a change in the country's position.

Muraiev is a protégé of Moscow. Or not?

On January 22, the British Foreign Office, citing intelligence information, reported that the Kremlin's plans included a change of government in Kyiv. One of the contenders to become a puppet in an important position is Yevhen Muraiev, a former People's Deputy from the Opposition Bloc and now a member of the NASH party.

Muraiev himself denied this. Russia also denied the information. And what about the Ukrainian government?

NSDC sanctions (but unlikely)

Maria Zolkina is convinced that Ukraine reacted too weakly to the data on plans on Muraiev. There is a tool to influence the politician, but whether it will be used remains to be seen.

"Our government understands that the Ukrainian domestic field is critical of Russia. Russia is an aggressor. Therefore, the possible riots set up by it are also perceived calmer.

At the same time, information about Muraiev is data from powerful intelligence. I see no reason for Ukraine to officially question the reliability of the data of one of Ukraine's key partners. The only thing we can expect is sanctions from the National Security and Defense Council against Muraiev. Anything else requires a court order. But, considering how calmly the Ukrainian authorities reacted to this, I think there will be no sanctions," Maria Zolkina said.

Several countries are recalling their diplomats. Is this serious?

So far, several countries have stated their readiness to recall their embassies from Ukraine. The decision of the United States, which is actively involved in the issue of a possible escalation, caused the greatest publicity.

Does such a recall of diplomats mean that Russia will attack?

Exhale and let everyone reinsure

Vladislav Faraponov, an American politics specialist, is convinced that the decision to recall the representatives of the embassies and their families is not a direct signal that a full-scale invasion is about to begin. This is reinsurance that every country is entitled to.

"First, the recall of diplomats means that the talks haven't yet yielded the desired result, confidence that Russia will not continue to escalate. Second, the evacuation is only partial. The number of representatives of the US Embassy (and not all diplomats), which includes the consulate, is quite large, and it isn't so easy to organize the process of their return quickly.

The recall itself isn't a pleasant fact for us, but every state has the right to do so. Ukraine also deported its citizens from Afghanistan. Similarly, the United States, Ukraine, and other countries exported their people during the coronavirus. There was an evacuation from China.

It is a common act of reinsurance for the lives of its citizens to show that the government cares about them. But it's not critical, because the US government hasn't said it will leave forever and will not return. This hasn't been and will not happen," explains Vladislav Faraponov.

The political expert also stressed that judging by the rhetoric of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, America will continue to try to reach an agreement with Russia, but will not agree to its terms. However, we shouldn't expect sanctions to be imposed before Russia decides to launch an even more aggressive offensive.

"Antony Blinken has a principled stance that imposing sanctions in advance will accelerate the escalation and full-scale invasion. Therefore, they still have a chance to say that the United States and Western partners will impose sanctions in case of escalation, but not until now," the expert explains.

Hybridity of Russian politics: pseudo-protests, cyberattacks and information attacks

In addition to bringing troops and equipment to Ukraine's borders, Russia is waging war on other fronts. For example, on January 14, a hacker attack on the websites of Ukrainian ministries and the Diia portal took place. The Polish diplomat later said that the group of hackers that arranged it was connected with the Russian secret services and was also involved in the cyberattack on the Bundestag and e-mails of several Polish officials.

The Russian-occupied East is also on the agenda. What else to expect soon?

More attention, more readiness

Oleh Saakian, a political expert and co-founder of the Dialogue on Peace and Safe Reintegration National Platform, is convinced that it is worth monitoring not only how many tanks Russia is pulling to the border, but also what else it is doing.

"In my opinion, in anticipation and preparation for a possible invasion, unfairly less attention is paid to asymmetric or hybrid threats, which also come from Russia. We've already seen a cyber attack. It could also be a continuation of the attack on infrastructure and the authorities to dispel panic.

Along with this, there may be subversive actions in the Ukrainian rear and various means of non-military influence on incitement of the masses. For example, Russian agents may incite inciting draft laws in parliament or certain political decisions, or provoke confrontation on the ground around some acute social issues. That is, the impact on the weakening of Ukraine is not limited to the military. The risk is high, but you need to analyze it in different areas and just be prepared," said Oleh Saakian.

Russia can officially recognize the so-called "LDNR"

The Russian Duma plans to put to a vote the official recognition of the self-proclaimed "LDNR." It should take place in February. If the deputies vote in favor, they will send an official decision to Putin and he will make the final decision.

But what does this mean for Ukraine?

Realize what that might mean

Oleh Saakian explains that Russia's decision to recognize the self-proclaimed republics, although it doesn't seem very significant, we should understand what the Russians are guided by. According to the political expert, there are two options: the desire to complicate the reintegration of the regions when they return to Ukrainian control, or an extravagant way out of the Minsk agreements.

"Recognition of their independence in itself doesn't change the situation for today. This, of course, complicates the possibility of reintegration of the occupied territories in the future. And this will require even greater steps by Russia to integrate these territories with itself.

On the other hand, it is formally Russia's withdrawal from the 'Minsk' [Minsk Agreements – ed.]. If Russia de facto sabotages Minsk, it will de jure undermine the possibility of realizing Minsk as such.

But the most important part of such a step by the Russian Federation lies outside the situation directly related to recognition. This is an element of blackmail: if the Russian Federation recognizes these territories as independent, it de facto leaves Minsk and, accordingly, its strategy of behavior changes completely," Oleh Saakian explains.

According to him, this could lead to Russia's transition to the official introduction of its troops into the occupied territories, which in turn could turn into a full-scale offensive. But it is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post.

More solutions!

What else is the world doing?

Most European countries declare their support for Ukraine. We are supplied with weapons, finance and are involved in negotiations concerning our future.

• The United States has already provided Ukraine with three batches of state-of-the-art weapons, including 77 Javelins, 540 missiles, and small arms;
• The United Kingdom handed over 2,000 anti-tank grenade launchers;
• Spain has sent warships to join NATO's naval forces in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea;
• Lithuania delivered 150 tons of ammunition;
• The Czech Republic is ready to send its troops to Ukraine if Kyiv request from ;
• Estonia handed over 2,400 Makarov pistols and a batch of ammunition to them.

In addition, work is underway on an alliance between Ukraine, Poland, and the United Kingdom. According to experts, such a partnership will significantly strengthen Ukraine's position.

There are also unpleasant moments, such as the statement of the President of Croatia that Ukraine has no place in NATO, but with the support of the main players in the political arena, we are still involved. We now need an understanding of the processes that are taking place and the ability to be masters of our land despite everything. And we already have experience in this.