The $106 billion question: what kind of aid from US is promised by Biden and whether Congress will pass it

US President Joe Biden wants to close the issue of helping Ukraine for a long time. On October 20, the US President asked Congress for $106 billion, a record aid package, most of which should go to Ukraine.

More than $5.4 billion is left in the United States budget for aid to Ukraine, and Washington wants to extend it to last until 2025. Then, the support of Ukraine will not become a victim of political skirmishes in the 2024 US election year. For Ukraine, this is extremely important because the United States is the leading supplier of weapons to Ukraine.

However, some Republicans in Congress blocked the aid — hence the predictions that Ukraine may be left without US support. Rubryka explains what Biden offers and the chances to unfreeze the aid.

On October 20, Joe Biden took the floor for the first time in recent times to explain why Ukraine should be helped. "We cannot and will not allow terrorists like HAMAS and tyrants like Putin to win. I refuse to allow this," he declared.

Presumably, the president tried to convince the American public as, due to regular criticism from Republicans in the US, supporters of aid to Ukraine decreased, and the congressmen themselves.

Two ministers also went to the Senate — the head of the State Department, Anthony Blinken, and the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin. They explained that without the support of the US, Putin would win in Ukraine and move on, which would mean a NATO war with Russia.

Biden's request has an unusual format for the US because $106 billion will go simultaneously to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan for humanitarian aid for the world and protection of the border of the United States with Mexico.

The White House has an ideological justification for this — they say that America protects freedom, helps allies, and deters aggressors. But the main reason is more prosaic because it is easier to gather votes in Congress for a package decision, especially when there is aid to Israel, which the Republicans traditionally support.

As a result, $106 billion will go not only to Ukraine. According to Oksana Markarova, the Ukrainian Ambassador to the US, Ukraine's share is about $61.4 billion. Of these, more than $14 billion will go to civil needs and $46.1 billion to defense. They will be distributed as follows:

• $18 billion — for the so-called replenishment of defense goods. Simply put, the White House transfers any weapon to Ukraine, for example, Patriots or Abrams, and with this money buys a replacement for it;
• $12 billion — for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative program, when the Pentagon directly orders weapons for Ukraine from manufacturers, for example, HIMARS from the Lockheed Martin company;
• $1.7 billion for the State Department for the Foreign Military Financing program. In it, the US gives grants with which other countries buy weapons from America;
• $14.4 billion — for everything except weapons. In particular, technical support, intelligence assistance, production of equipment and ammunition, and cyber security.

It is beneficial not only to Ukraine. If you add military aid to Israel and Taiwan, as much as $50 billion will return to the US in the form of contracts, orders, and investments for their military industry. This is one of the key arguments of the Biden team. He said it is beneficial to help Ukraine because this is how the United States strengthens its industry and creates additional jobs.

In addition, the United States will allocate as much as $13.6 billion to protect the border with Mexico and the needs of law enforcement officers. In particular, they will hire 1,300 border guards and 1,600 employees to work with migrants and buy a hundred modern scanners that detect drugs in luggage. They will also recruit a thousand police officers to catch drug dealers.

It is also important for Ukraine because, for many months, the Republicans have been demanding to defend the southern border, through which flows of smuggling and illegal migration pass — another incentive for the Grand Old Party to be more willing to vote for such a package.

You can understand them because in the US, now there is a so-called fentanyl epidemic. The substance can be up to 50 times stronger than heroin, and it's no wonder that criminals are importing it en masse from Mexico to sell to residents of the United States. For example, in the spring, fentanyl killed an average of 1,500 Americans per week.

But for Joe Biden's proposal to become law, it must be approved by both houses of Congress.

Representatives of the Freedom Caucus in the House of Representatives.

Republicans have the majority there (221 deputies), and according to the Axios portal, the top of the party still supports Ukraine. "Among the Republicans in the USA, there are many friends of Ukraine who will always hold the front within the party and oppose the absurd politics of the Trumpists," agrees Petro Shuklinov, head of the socio-political editorial office of Liga.net.

The team of the Republicans for Ukraine project, which analyzes the work of the lower house, rated 111 parliamentarians from the Grand Old Party as "excellent" and "good" for their support of Ukraine.

But since January, the House of Representatives has actually been conquered by a group of officials from the radical wing of the party. They are conventionally called MAGA-Republicans in honor of Donald Trump's campaign slogan (which, by the way, they support).

There are not many MAGA-Republicans: they have an informal association called Freedom Caucus, where about fifty members of Congress, plus a few more politicians like Matt Gaetz or Marjorie Taylor-Green, who are not a part of it.

But without radicals, the Grand Old Party simply does not get the necessary 216 votes to pass laws — that's why the Trumpists dictate their will. By the way, newly elected Speaker of the House Mike Johnson took the seat thanks to the MAGA Republicans and is close with them.

The problem for Ukraine is that the majority of MAGA Republicans are against aid to Ukraine, so it will be difficult to persuade them to vote for the $106 billion package. There are several reasons for such antipathy.

• Isolationism — some congressmen believe the US should minimize aid to other countries. Like, it's better to spend money at home — this is also a consequence of the war in Afghanistan, which cost $2 trillion and ended in failure;
• The Donald Trump factor — now, he is the most popular politician and opinion leader among Republicans. He repeatedly criticized military aid to Ukraine, called for it to be stopped, and offered to give Russia part of the occupied territories;
• The political struggle against the Biden administration — it is possible to blame the president, who allegedly cares more about Ukraine than the United States. "I don't even know if he realizes what kind of country he leads," said Anna Paulina Luna, a member of the Freedom Caucus;
• The theory that aid to Ukraine distracts the US from confrontation with China, so it's time to wind it down. There are even ideas of negotiating with the Russian Federation against Beijing at the expense of Ukraine. "Why should you choose Ukraine? Why not extend NATO to Russia and make it an anti-China alliance?" suggested Congressman Matt Gaetz.

Voting there is the main source of bad news from the US. For example, in September, the Trumpists forced Congress to remove from the budget $300 million allocated to Ukraine.

By the way, political statements that aid to Ukraine appears to be almost the main item of Biden's expenses and a burden for taxpayers are not confirmed by numbers. Statistics from the US Treasury state that for 2022-2023, their government spent a total of $12.4 trillion. Ukraine received about 0.6% of this amount, and it is unlikely that the residents of New York or Arizona suffer precisely because of it.

Now, Speaker Mike Johnson is promoting a bill, an alternative to the presidential one: give $14.3 billion to the Israelis and consider support for Ukraine and everything else later, separately, as the Republicans are ready to help Israel immediately.

President Biden

Indeed, it is too early to say goodbye to Joe Biden's proposal. Republicans not only want to divide aid between Ukraine and Israel. They planned to take money for Israel, not from the Pentagon budget but, for some reason, from the US Internal Revenue Service. Because of this, the state may not receive more than $26 billion.

It is not surprising that the majority of senators disagree with both ideas, so such a project will not be approved. The White House has already promised to veto it. Presumably, parliamentarians will have to return to the $106 billion package.

How will the Republicans, led by Speaker Johnson, act? Previously, he regularly voted against aid to Ukraine, but after taking the main seat, he changed his rhetoric. "It's one thing when you present yourself. And it's another matter when you represent the entire party," Shuklinov explained.

"We cannot allow Vladimir Putin to win in Ukraine because I do not believe that he will stop there. This will probably inspire and strengthen China to take a step towards Taiwan," said the chairman of the House of Representatives on October 26. However, he still insists that the package for Israel be voted on separately.

At the same time, the Republicans are ready to help Ukraine, but they set several conditions for the White House. The speaker voiced two of them: the Biden administration should report on aid and give members of Congress clear goals in the war. A group of congressmen led by Mike Garcia presented more detailed demands (there are 12 of them and, in total, more than 1,000 words in the statement), but the ideas are generally similar.

There will be no problems with control because American inspectors from the Interagency Working Group for Supervision of Aid to Ukraine have been working in Ukraine since January, monitoring the situation. As of the end of September, the auditors had no comments.

"The United States is receiving unprecedented information about how our weapons are used," said Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate. The White House is also quite capable of talking about America's strategy in the war and other issues.

So, the Biden administration has a chance to agree with the Republicans on voting for Joe Biden's proposal (especially when the package includes funding for the border defense).

"The main thing is the result: whether there are votes for the law or not. Currently, we have reason to believe that the House of Representatives has votes for the law that will provide Ukraine with additional support," commented Dmytro Kuleba, minister of foreign affairs of Ukraine.

In the upper house, the situation is simpler: Democrats led by faction leader Chuck Schumer have 51 votes out of 100, and they support Joe Biden's initiative.

The Republican leader, the already mentioned Mitch McConnell, is also on Ukraine's side, so Ukrainians can count on the support of the moderate wing of the party. According to Senator John Kennedy, even most Republicans are ready to help.

Therefore, Ukraine can hope for bipartisan voting when the law is passed by the joint forces of Democrats and Republicans, which has happened in the Senate more than once.

Of course, there is an internal opposition led by Trumpist Republican James Vance. He is categorically against aid to Kyiv, calls Russian aggression the "Ukrainian crisis," and proposes a de facto freeze on the war. But the pro-Ukrainian majority is still holding on, and Ukrainian diplomats should take the situation into account for the future.

However, even when aid to Ukraine is eventually voted for, there is a risk that the lower house will try to reduce it. According to Oleksandra Ustinova, a member of the Ukrainian parliament who is familiar with American political discussions, the money that the USA "pours" into the Ukrainian budget for civilian needs is at risk. They say the Republicans do not understand why America should pay the salaries of Ukrainian civil servants, and therefore, Ukrainian diplomats should remind that war is also a competition of economies.

Volodymyr Zelensky and Joe Biden in September 2023.

The United States remains a crucial ally of Ukraine. The Democrats have even filmed a pre-election advertisement in the style of Hollywood blockbusters about Joe Biden's trip to Kyiv.

To avoid problems like the current one, Ukraine needs more support from Republicans, especially those currently dissenting. Ukraine can convince some of them because they do not reject aid to Ukraine. But for this, Ukrainians will have to show the Americans a victory plan similar to the approach when inventors convince investors to invest in their startup.

Conditionally, if the front line has changed slightly in 2023, what will Kyiv do in 2024 to change the course of the war and reach the borders of 1991? The Afghan legacy and reluctance to get a new long war at the expense of the United States is the likely reason why such a question is put.

An example is the already mentioned Mike Garcia and the co-authors of his letter. Some of the demands there seem to be taken from the speeches of Volodymyr Zelensky: more weapons for Ukraine, not to provide them "drop by drop," total sanctions against the Russian Federation and clear goals of the war. Here is one more of their requests — an action plan Ukraine should develop with the White House to attract many members of the Grand Old Party to its side.

"Therefore, Ukraine's homework is a quality military strategy in the 2024 campaign. A strategy that would balance all points of tactics and operational art, which have been demonstrated by the combat operations of the last 20 months, and political tasks, properly formed expectations at home and abroad, and ultimately gave the proper result," explains Mykola Bielieskov, senior analyst of the fund "Come back alive, an expert of the National Institute of Strategic Studies.

This will help Ukraine maintain bipartisan support in the US Congress, and Israel's history shows Ukraine how important this is.