Illusion of care for "rescued": why Russia needs (or doesn't) to recognize "LDNR"
On February 15, the State Duma of the Russian Federation addressed its President with an official request to recognize the DNR and LNR as independent republics. 351 Russian deputies voted for the draft law. Putin has already spoken out on this issue but hasn't made a final decision.
Ukrainian and foreign politicians also commented on the deputies' appeals. Rubryka has put everything together to understand what the recognition will mean for LDNR, Ukraine, and Russia. And whether it's probable at all.
What is the problem?
Russian officials don't think about Russians
And this is the entire world's problem. Under the pretext of protecting the Russian-speaking population, Russia attacked Ukraine eight years ago. Now Russia has imagined that when Ukraine joins NATO, it will attack it. Currently, there are more than 100,000 Russian servicemen near Ukraine's border with Russia and Belarus, and the number of vehicles continues to grow.
The economic situation inside Russia is deteriorating, its image in the international political arena has been permanently damaged. At the same time, the State Duma of the Russian Federation, instead of making decisions that will take care of the Russians, appeals to Putin to recognize the "LDNR" independence.
"In our country, the vast majority of people sympathize with the people of Donbas, support them, and hope that the situation will change radically for them for the better," Vladimir Putin commented on the address of Russian deputies.
What is the solution?
Analyzing the actions of the Russian authorities
Russia can be unpredictable. Therefore, it's difficult for political scientists and diplomats to draw conclusions and forecasts that will accurately correspond to reality. But you don't have to be an expert to clearly understand one thing: Russia itself will be the first to suffer from Russian aggression.
Not recognizing the independence of the self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine is part of the Minsk agreements, which provide for a relative ceasefire in the war zone. Vladimir Putin constantly emphasizes the observance of these agreements. In particular, commenting on the appeal, he said:
"I will assume that we must do everything to solve the problem of Donbas, but do it first of all (…) given the incomplete opportunities for the implementation of the Minsk agreements. We are very much counting on the fact that our partners overseas and in Europe will influence the current Kyiv authorities, and this solution will be found."
Earlier, Putin also complained about Ukraine's non-compliance with the Minsk agreements. Although it is the militants who are violating the ceasefire and opening fire on the Ukrainian military.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine assures that the recognition of "LDNR" by Russia will have no legal consequences.
"Recognition of the so-called 'LDNR' won't have any legal consequences. Russia will not be able to pass the Russian occupation administration in the temporarily occupied territories in Luhansk and Donetsk regions as 'independent entities,'" said the spokesperson of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Oleh Nikolenko.
The Foreign Ministry spokesperson also stressed that Ukraine had the support and tools to deter the aggressor.
"Comprehensive Russia's deterrence package, offered to by Ukraine to partners in November 2021, has become an effective tool for countering the Kremlin's aggressive policies, and our country now has a strong position through coordinated diplomatic contacts at all levels, US and EU finalizing sanctions, delivering arms, and providing macro-financial assistance," Oleh Nikolenko said.
How does it work?
Ukraine continues to garner support
Oleh Saakian, a political scientist and co-founder of the Dialogue on Peace and Safe Reintegration National Platform, told Rubryka that recognizing the so-called DNR and LNR at the official level was Russia's way of trying to dictate its terms.
"Before that, Russia was playing on exhaustion so that the territories couldn't be reintegrated, but formally they were under Ukraine's control. Thus, Russia tried to shake up the situation, hang a short leash on Ukrainian statehood, and thus oppose or destroy Ukrainian sovereignty under the guise of restoring territorial integrity.
If Russia recognizes these territories as independent, it will acknowledge that this scenario has failed, and will move to a scenario of more severe shaking up of Ukraine and struggle against Ukrainian statehood by less covert methods. That is, it brings us to the scenario of a great war.
Therefore, when Russia is now trying to recognize the occupation administrations as independent, they are sending the next message to Ukraine; it will be a token stating that 'Minsk' is dead, and it will be a new round of military confrontation," said Oleh Saakian.
But the question of whether Putin is ready for this scenario remains open. After all, in the event of an invasion, Russia will face severe sanctions that will affect both ordinary Russians and the political and business elite, including President Putin's inner circle.
The United States called the decision of the State Duma of the Russian Federation to recognize ORDLO a violation of the Minsk agreements. During his official visit to Moscow, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that the recognition of the LDNR would be a political catastrophe. Other European politicians also condemn the possible recognition.
Even more useful solutions!
Different experts make different predictions. For example, the Ukrainian authorities urge Ukrainians not to panic and rely on armed forces that have sufficient skills and adequate defense equipment. And the Reuters news agency launched a live broadcast from the Maidan in Kyiv in case a full-scale invasion begins. However, the broadcast was stopped after someone launched a drone announcing the sale of a garage and the number of the Russian embassy in Kyiv.
If you're anxious about Vladimir Putin's further decisions, we remind you of Rubryka's articles, which may suggest the right solution.
