Smart quarantine: what to expect for New Year?
The government is trying to choose one of several restriction options to introduce in December
New Year's holidays are approaching. The entire country is braced for the government's quarantine decision for the holiday season, already being talked so much about. The authorities haven't yet decided on exact dates, but are already considering several scenarios for the lockdown.
Weekend quarantine abolished
The measures taken a few weeks ago showed significant results. 6,000 fewer people fell ill with coronavirus than predicted, and the situation with the shortage of hospital beds has stabilized:
"Strengthened measures on weekends have somewhat stabilized the situation in hospitals. The bed occupancy is evening out, being at a constant level of 27-28 thousand beds occupied by COVID-19 patients for a month. It allows us to remove these restrictions. Both on weekends and on weekdays, orange zone restrictions will be in effect throughout the country," Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said at a government meeting on December 2.
We have collected the exact restrictions talked about. So, the "orange zone" throughout the country means:
- forbidding activities of hostels, tourist bases, except hotels
- forbidding activities of entertainment establishments, restaurants from 22:00 to 07:00
- planned hospitalizations in hospitals
- proceeding work of gyms, fitness centers, changes in children's camps
- cinemas won't close, but the occupancy of cinemas shouldn't exceed 50%
- holding mass events with restrictions: 1 person per 20 square meters and not over 100 people in total
If the weekend quarantine hadn't shown positive results, the authorities would have imposed a full lockdown, as Prime Minister said earlier.
How about helping entrepreneurs?
The decision to impose a New Year's quarantine is delayed. One of the significant reasons is support programs for entrepreneurs, provided by law drafts 4429, 4430, 4431 but not yet taken:
- sole proprietors in case of forced termination of activity and employees in case of dismissal can receive compensation up to 8000 hryvnias
- enterprises can receive single social security tax compensation; Zelenskyi promised to allocate 1.5 billion hryvnias
"If you're a sole proprietor and forced to close your coffee shop, or you're a fired employee, you can get compensation of 8000 hryvnias… If you are the owner of a coffee shop, and you didn't close, but because of quarantine reduced working hours, you sent some employees on forced leave and didn't fire anyone, then you'll be able to receive assistance to pay such employees," President explained.
They'll fund compensation with the coronavirus fund and define law drafts as urgent.
Meanwhile, many entrepreneurs note that they haven't received compensation after the first lockdown yet, so further payments are even more questionable.
What is "smart quarantine"?
The head of the parliamentary party "Servant of the People" Davyd Arakhamia previously stated that the probability of toughening restrictions was 90%. According to him, there'll be no full lockdown "like in the spring," but the authorities are considering the introduction of a "smart quarantine," i.e. adjusted to the realities in each region.
We'll answer the key questions about the new quarantine:
Will transport work?
Most likely, public transport won't stop working or restrict functioning, as Davyd Arakhamia stated. Regarding interregional, inter-city, and railway transport, the Ministry of Infrastructure takes the position that it's not a mandatory measure. Vladislav Kryklii stated that he would insist that transport continue to work during the New Year holidays and that its shutdown would be a blow to the country's economy.
According to the Minister of Infrastructure, they will not cancel domestic flights, and international flights depend on the situation in other countries.
"Restrictions can be discussed, but all transport will work: interregional, long-distance, inter-city, and all other modes of transport," Kryklii stated.
City Christmas trees will be installed, but with several restrictions
According to Prime Minister, almost 60% of local government representatives supported this decision and 90% of heads of city administrations supported the ban on concerts.
When will they announce the New Year's quarantine, and how long will it last?
According to a LIGA.net portal source at the leadership of the "Servant of the People" party, there are 3 viable options:
- The strict quarantine will be introduced immediately after the adoption of law drafts 4429, 4430, 4431. It's the most destructive option for the Ukrainian economy.
- Quarantine from December 15. Earlier, Denys Shmyhal stated that if they determined the exact date of the New Year's quarantine, Ukrainians would be warned 6-7 days before it started, so that entrepreneurs could prepare for the restrictions.
- The mildest option is to limit the work of some companies from December 29 for two to three weeks.
As for the duration of quarantine, Olha Holubovska, a member of the Ministry of Health anti-COVID-19 headquarters, stated that quarantine should be announced for at least 3 weeks: a minimum incubation period plus one week.
"It's the minimum period it makes sense to introduce these restrictive measures. The more, the better. But the economists and government should calculate how it'll hit the economy," Holubovska said.
