fbpx
Details 10:15 20 Oct 2020

Blackmail, nuclear weapons, and elections: what's wrong with Zelenskyi's Budapest question

What is the Budapest Memorandum, and why should every adult Ukrainian google it before October 25? That's why. President Volodymyr Zelenskyi decided to include the question about this international format in the all-Ukrainian survey.

Some Ukrainians are already exhausted from the "Budapest" topic. Little sense, but a lot of talk. For the rest, this memorandum still remains a mystery. What is its real nature? Will it help in the fight against Russia, and what do nuclear weapons have to do with it? Rubryka explains.

What is the essence of "Budapest" and why is it criticized

The Budapest Memorandum was signed on December 5, 1994. Among the signatories are Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. After its adoption, Kyiv renounced its third-largest nuclear arsenal (approximately 1,500 re-entry vehicles, 44 heavy bombardment aircrafts, 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles) in exchange for certain security guarantees from the world's strongest countries.

Підписання Будапештського меморандуму

The Signing of the Budapest Memorandum

The decision expediency is still considered controversial. Supporters point out the high cost of servicing nuclear weapons, Russia, the EU, and the United States blackmailing to "freeze" relations with Ukraine, and the lack of missile launch keys in Kyiv (most of them were in the Kremlin). Opponents see this agreement as a voluntary surrender of weapons with no solid guarantees.

Kyiv fulfilled its part of the memorandum strictly and quickly. A year and a half later, we took the last warhead out of the country. Other signatory countries, besides giving economic discounts and "goodies", have undertaken to preserve and maintain the territorial integrity of Ukraine, however, only on paper.

As it turned out, the English version of the document doesn't mention guarantees, but "security assurances." It is not an obligation to defend Kyiv in the event of direct aggression. In addition, the clauses set out in the memorandum did not provide for any specific format for protecting Ukraine in the event of aggression, except for consultations in the event of an emergency.

They, in fact, took place in March 2014, after Russian military aggression started, but did not lead to tangible steps. The Kremlin has not acknowledged an obvious violation of virtually all agreement clauses, nor does it recognize it.

According to Vladimir Putin's logic, Crimea voluntarily joined Russia, and the "referendum" recorded it. And in Donbas, there's no Russian Federation at all. No soldiers, no advisers, no military equipment, because it's exclusively the internal Ukrainian conflict.

Disputes about revising the format, namely the United States and Britain taking part in negotiations with Russia, have been happening for 6 years, but only in the information extent so far. Washington largely shifted responsibility for peace to Germany and France, and until recently Britain has shown little interest in the war in eastern Ukraine. Nobody planned to fight for Crimea and Donbas against Russia.

Why the question occurred and whether it'll create any difference

Before analyzing the possible "Budapest" consequences, it is worth mentioning two important cases. The first is that the poll has no legal value. Rubryka wrote about it earlier here.

The second is that the final wording of the "Budapest" question is still unknown. The official website of the President's Office published a note stating only the copy without mentioning the Budapest Memorandum itself: "Should Ukraine raise the question at the international level today: are all memorandum signatories fulfilling their pledges or no one?"

International relations experts perceive the topic with skepticism. According to the expert of the International Center for Policy Studies Mykola Kapitonenko, the poll makes little sense and its results will not affect the international order. "Everything that we could squeeze out of the memorandum, we did already in 2014. It is impossible to do more," Kapitonenko stressed to Rubryka.

The international relations expert also added that making the Donbas and Crimean issue relevant resembles a President's Office attempt to shift responsibility for failed policy on achieving peace to someone else.

"The impression is that in a year and a half, Zelenskyi has achieved nothing in the Donbas peace issue and is trying to offer something to his constituents. It is possible to shift responsibility from Ukraine to the memorandum signatories who allegedly failed to protect us in tough times," Kapitonenko concluded.

Зеленський на Донбасі в ООС

Illia Kusa, an international relations expert, is of the opinion that "Zelenskyi's poll" is just an attempt to gain political preferences before the elections.

"This poll has a purely pre-election logic. It is based on absolutely nothing instrumental and practical in terms of foreign policy. Wandering through the thickets and looking for some hidden meanings, elements of a brilliant foreign containment strategy or some Wunderwaffe, overthrowing Russia's entire position on Crimea and Donbas, in the fifth question (yes, about the Budapest Memorandum) is just a waste of time," Kusa wrote on his Facebook.

The Servant of the People party comments on Zelenskyi's initiative sluggishly, but again in keeping with the Office of the President. For example, a people's deputy, Halyna Yanchenko, stated on air that the poll on October 25 could allegedly influence international politics and protect Ukraine from the Kremlin blackmailing.

"Zelenskyi is the first to use this trump card: I represent the people of Ukraine, and Ukrainians have such a point of view, so I can't do otherwise. In fact, this poll will be another trump card in international negotiations. Plus, it involves Britain and the United States in resolving the situation in Donbas," Yanchenko emphasized.

By the way, making the "Budapest" topic relevant has given rise to many conspiracy theories from many journalists and politicians. Starting with Zelenskyi's geopolitical games with the West and Russia, and ending with "blackmail" on restoring Ukraine's nuclear status. However, they mention little about where to get money for creating bombs, missiles, and how it fits within Kyiv's international obligations.

Meanwhile, you should not turn a blind eye to the frankly unusual events of recent weeks. For example, the memorandum topic arose just days after Zelenskyi's visit to London, where he met with Mi-6 intelligence chief Richard Moore.

This meeting has already created a lot of rumors and speculations. It is possible that Zelenskyi received unofficial guarantees of some international support in pressuring Russia in the conversation with London, and the "Budapest" issue should only give him a "nationwide mandate."

The odds are that after the poll, the results will formally become the basis for something more than just resuming negotiations on the Budapest format. However, a specific link in this story is not yet visible.

As Rubryka's source in the Servant of the People party told us, the parliament definitely didn't discuss and aren't discussing any important votes on Donbas or international policy.

"We have COVID-19 now. The situation with the party is unclear. We need to adopt the budget. Elections are just around the corner. I don't think we can vote on large-scale decisions related to Donbas now. I am interested too what the president will say during his message on October 20, but I think the language will be more pre-election rather than strategic," the source summed up in the mono-majority.

1925

If you have found a spelling error, please, notify us by selecting that text and pressing Ctrl+Enter.

Leave a Reply

Spelling error report

The following text will be sent to our editors: