Russian state media casts ceasefire proposal as moderate, despite rejection by ultranationalists – ISW
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Experts from the Institute for the Study of War point out that state-run Russian media outlets are "trying to present Russia's reaction as moderate for domestic audiences." However, Russian ultranationalists have not accepted the proposal for a possible ceasefire in Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote about this.
The report notes that the United States and Ukraine, during a meeting in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) on March 11, agreed on a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, subject to Russia's consent. The United States has reportedly resumed intelligence sharing and military assistance.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the ceasefire would begin as soon as Russia agreed to the US proposal and would include:
- a cessation of hostilities along the entire front line,
- a moratorium on long-range missile strikes and drone strikes,
- a cessation of operations in the Black Sea.
During a press conference on March 11, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio answered a question about Russia's deadline for responding, describing it as "as soon as possible."
However, analysts say, Russian ultranationalists and officials have rejected the ceasefire proposal.
According to Russian bloggers, including those close to the Kremlin, the United States and Ukraine are allegedly "giving up" on peace "at the first opportunity," and the war in Ukraine is "existential for Russia."
These bloggers also stated that accepting the ceasefire would be "pure betrayal and sabotage."
In addition, Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev, a deputy of the Russian State Duma and former commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, said that Russia should not agree to the "unacceptable" proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, as this would allow Ukraine to rearm and regroup.
"The Kremlin has not officially responded to the ceasefire proposal as of this publication, and Russian state media is attempting to frame earlier official Russian statements about bilateral US-Russian negotiations as responses to the ceasefire proposal," the ISW report states.
The report also notes that after the ceasefire proposal was released, Russian state media disseminated a statement by Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, made earlier in the afternoon of March 11, that Russia "does not rule out" contacts with the United States over the next few days.
Mikhail Sheremet, a member of the State Duma Security Committee, said before the joint statement was released that Russia was interested in a settlement in Ukraine but would not allow itself to be deceived. Russian state media only reinforced Sheremet's statement after the ceasefire proposal.
"Russian state media is likely attempting to portray the immediate Russian reaction as moderate for domestic audiences until Kremlin officials make public statements and provide a framing for broader Russian media coverage of the proposal," ISW experts summarize.
Key ISW conclusions for March 11:
- The United States and Ukraine agreed on March 11 to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine contingent on Russia's agreement, and the US reportedly restarted intelligence sharing and military aid.
- Ukraine's allies and partners from Europe, Asia, and Oceania continue efforts to strengthen the Ukrainian military and back Ukraine with security guarantees – the most effective deterrent against future Russian aggression against Ukraine following a potential future peace agreement.
- Russian forces continue to make confirmed advances in the Kursk region and have likely begun attacking Sudzha.
- Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone strikes against Russia on the night of March 10 to 11, mainly targeting the Moscow region.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian troops recently advanced near Siversk, Robotyne, and the Kursk region.
- The Kremlin continues to expand social benefits for Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine, including soldiers who have fought for the militias of the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics (DNR and LNR) since 2014
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky disclosed that the United States has proposed a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire, encompassing missile attacks, the situation in the Black Sea, and the entire front line.
US President Donald Trump remarked on the meeting between the Ukrainian and US delegations in Saudi Arabia, describing it as "radically different from what was in the Oval Office."
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