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09:06 09 Oct 2023

Russian troops re-lay minefields in cleared front areas of Zaporizhzhia – ISW

In the Robotyne-Verbove area, the troops of the Russian Federation have intensified mining. They are trying to bind Ukrainian forces in areas of the front far from the west of the Zaporizhzhia region.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that.

Russian military bloggers claim that Russian forces began mining previously cleared areas on the Robotyne-Verbove line (10 km south to 18 km southeast of Orikhiv) to achieve tactical surprise.

A well-known Kremlin-linked blogger claimed that Russian forces have stepped up tactical offensive operations in several areas of the front outside the Zaporizhzhia region to stretch Ukrainian defenses and distract Ukrainians.

Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, the spokesman of the Tavria group of Ukrainian troops, said that the Russian troops tried to pin down the Ukrainian forces on the Avdiivka and Mariinka fronts and prevent them from transferring reserves to the Zaporizhzhia direction.

In addition, Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and slightly advanced west of the Zaporizhzhia region on October 8. Geolocation footage released on October 8 shows that Ukrainian forces have made limited progress north of Novoprokopivka (14 km south of Orikhiv), and the Russian military claimed that the Ukrainian troops have also advanced near Kopan (10 km southwest of Orikhiv).

The General Staff of Ukraine reported that Ukrainian forces achieved partial success northeast of Andriivka (7 km southwest of Bakhmut). At the same time, Russian sources claimed that the Ukrainian troops continued to attack near Andriivka and Kurdiumivka (11 km southwest of Bakhmut).

Russian and Ukrainian sources also reported that deteriorating weather conditions affect both Russian and Ukrainian operations. Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, the spokesman of the Tavria group of Ukrainian troops, said that the activity of Russian drones and aviation has decreased in recent days due to bad weather.

The Russian military claimed that the deterioration of weather conditions in the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia areas affected the offensive operations of Ukraine, as well as the operations of Russian air reconnaissance. The spokesman of the Eastern Group of Ukraine's armed forces, Captain Illia Yevlash, repeated that bad weather could affect the work of drones and aviation. Still, the weather will not stop Ukraine's counteroffensive.

ISW Key Findings for October 8:

  • Russia advanced legal mechanisms to form the Leningrad Military District as part of ongoing large-scale military reforms.
  • Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and marginally advanced in the western Zaporizhzhia region on October 8.
  • Russian forces are intensifying mining efforts in the Robotyne-Verbove area and seek to fix Ukrainian forces on areas of the front away from the western Zaporizhzhia region.
  • Russian sources highlight apparent fault lines between regular Russian forces and irregular Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) formations.
  • Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat expressed concern over an anticipated Russian Shahed 131/136 drone strike campaign against Ukraine this winter.
  • The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) observed satellite imagery showing that rail traffic between North Korea and Russia "dramatically" increased since Russian President Vladimir Putin met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un on September 12-17
  • The Russian federal government continues disenfranchising certain ethnic minority federal subjects (regions) while selectively empowering others.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, western Donetsk region, and on the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia region administrative border on October 8 and reportedly advanced in some areas.
  • Prague-based Russian-language outlet Current Time reported on October 8 that the number of desertion cases within the Russian military has increased.

For reference:

It should be noted that the situation on the Lyman-Kupiansk front is more difficult today than in Bakhmut: the Russian occupiers have chosen a new target for themselves – Makiivka.

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