Halt in US-Ukraine intelligence exchange boosts Russian success in Kursk – ISW

In their report, experts from the Institute for the Study of War indicate that the suspension of intelligence sharing between the United States and Ukraine may be one factor contributing to Russian troops' successes in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported this.

Since March 5, 2025, after the suspension of intelligence sharing between the United States and Ukraine, Russian troops began to advance much more actively in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops were holding the defense.

According to information provided by Ukrainian military intelligence, the report states that this period coincided with a more rapid advance of Russian forces in this region.

A source in the Ukrainian government confirmed that the suspension of data sharing by the United States has become a significant factor complicating the work of Ukraine's armed forces.

"The Russian military has not previously prioritized the effort to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region over making further advances in eastern Ukraine despite concentrating a sufficient force grouping to do so in late 2024.

A direct link between the suspension of US intelligence sharing and the start of the collapse of Ukraine's salient in the Kursk region. However, Kremlin officials have recently announced their intention to take advantage of the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing to "inflict maximum damage" to Ukrainian forces "on the ground" during the limited time frame before the possible future resumption of US intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine," the ISW report states.

Key conclusions of ISW:

• Russian forces are collapsing the northern part of the Ukrainian salient in the Kursk region following several days of intensified Russian activity in the area.
• It is noteworthy that the suspension of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine coincided with the start of Russia's collapse of the Ukrainian Kursk salient.
• Reports about the extent of the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine indicate that the suspension will likely affect Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia.
• Ukraine's European allies continue to provide material and financial aid to Ukraine.
• Despite ongoing bilateral talks between the United States and Russia, Russia continues to showcase its deepening relations with American adversaries.
• Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian troops recently advanced in Sumy and Kursk regions and near Siversk, Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Robotyne.

On March 7, it became known that in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, Russian assault groups are trying to break through and move towards the highway from Yunakivka to Sudzha. The Russians are trying to wedge into the defense of the Ukrainian military and reach the border, but they have not yet succeeded. Ukrainian paratroopers are trying to recapture lost positions.

It should be noted that the military-analytical project DeepState wrote on March 7 that the Russians are having success in the Kursk region due to the use of a significant number of military personnel from North Korea.

Earlier, the Russian Telegram channel Mash reported that Russian troops were trying to take control of the so-called lifeline—the only asphalt road between the Ukrainian Yunakivka and the Russian Sudzha—to complicate the supply and logistics of Ukraine's armed forces.

In addition, on the morning of March 8, about a hundred Russian soldiers passed through the gas pipeline to the Defense Forces' positions in the Sudzha area in the Kursk region.

Later, the General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces stated that the Russians did not massively breach the Ukrainian border in the Sumy region in the Kursk region. In Sudzha, Russian special forces, who had previously moved along the gas pipeline, suffered "very heavy" losses.