Trump's military aid suspension to impact Ukraine's defense against Russian missiles – ISW
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US President Donald Trump's decision to stop military aid to Kyiv will harm Ukraine's combat capability, but above all it will affect the protection of Ukrainian cities from Russian missiles.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported this.
American analysts recall that the US provided Ukraine with:
- artillery ammunition,
- armored vehicles,
- towed howitzers,
- Patriot air defense batteries,
- long-range missile systems such as HIMARS and ATACMS.
Many of these weapons are complex systems that only the United States can supply.
A Ukrainian official told CNN after the arms supply was stopped that the artillery shells provided by the US could run out by May or June 2025, while the Patriot air defense missiles could run out "in a matter of weeks."
"Ukraine relies heavily on US Patriot systems for its air defense umbrella to protect against Russian missile strikes against Ukraine's rear areas. The shortage and eventual lack of Patriot missiles is likely to have severe impacts on the safety of Ukraine's critical, industrial, and civilian infrastructure, as Ukraine's other supporters lack an analogous system that can protect against Russian missile strikes, particularly those including ballistic missiles.
As Ukraine runs short on Patriot missiles, Kyiv will have to make difficult decisions about which population centers to prioritize in terms of air defense protection. If it runs out of Patriots entirely, then Ukrainian cities will lie open to Russian ballistic missiles," experts noted.
At the same time, American analysts emphasize that Ukraine's front line is not threatened by imminent collapse due to the cessation of aid. Still, the consequences of this pause in the supply of weapons from the United States will only become more acute over time.
Two anonymous US officials told ABC News on March 3 that about 90% of the weapons the US pledged to provide to Ukraine under past Presidential Arms Reduction Authority (PDA) packages have already arrived in Ukraine, including ammunition and anti-tank systems.
And the remaining 10% of the weapons under the PDA are still due to arrive in Ukraine by August 2025.
"Also, private weapons contracts between Ukraine and US companies – many of which Ukraine has already paid for — will likely facilitate at least a small flow of arms deliveries to Ukraine "for at least the next several years," ISW writes.
Analysts recall that:
- The United States supplies Ukraine with about 30% of weapons,
- European partners – another 30%,
- Ukraine itself supplies about 40% of domestically produced weapons.
Ukraine will continue to fight with the material it currently has, the material European partners have given and will continue to provide, and the material Ukraine itself produces. The Trump administration's aid pause will detrimentally impact Ukraine's ability to defend itself and pursue offensive operations at its current rate. Still, it will not collapse the front entirely in the coming months," ISW emphasizes.
At the same time, analysts are convinced that Russian forces are likely to take advantage of the expected shortage of weapons in Ukraine if the suspension of military assistance from the United States continues.
Analysts note that Russian forces are conducting active offensive operations in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions. They have recently intensified efforts west of the Zaporizhzhia region and continue attempting to cross the Dnipro River in the Kherson region.
"Russian forces will likely exploit expected Ukrainian materiel shortages if the suspension of US military assistance persists, as Russian forces did during the previous suspension of US military assistance in early 2024," the analysts believe. ISW.
For reference:
On March 4, it became known that the United States, after a public dispute with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, was suspending all military aid to Ukraine, including that ordered to be allocated by former President Joe Biden.
The article suggests that this decision could affect not only the $3.85 billion worth of equipment provided under the previous Biden administration but also American equipment already supplied or currently being sent to Ukraine.
Ukraine did not confirm the suspension of aid. However, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that as of the evening of March 3, military assistance from the US continued to arrive.
In turn, Poland confirms the suspension of American aid to Ukraine from the Polish hub and emphasizes that the US made this decision without consulting its allies.
At the same time, President Volodymyr Zelensky instructed the Ukrainian military and diplomats to receive an official US response regarding further assistance to Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump did not announce the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine in his first speech to Congress, as became known the day before.
