Moscow exaggerates support received from Beijing – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War suggest that the Kremlin will likely try to show that China shares Russia's position on the war in Ukraine more than China is willing to state publicly.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this.

"The Kremlin is likely attempting to portray the People's Republic of China (PRC) as more aligned with its stance on the war in Ukraine than the PRC is willing to message publicly," the ISW report says.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the G20 Foreign Ministers' Summit in South Africa on February 20.

An official statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry states that Wang Yi emphasized that China's approach to resolving the war in Ukraine is focused on eliminating the "root causes of the war."

At the same time, analysts point out that the official statement of the Chinese Foreign Ministry about this meeting is significantly different and claims that Lavrov stated that Russia, not China, seeks to eliminate the "root causes of the war."

"The Russian MFA's likely purposeful misattribution reflects Russia's attempt to align the PRC's position on the war fully with its own to bolster its international standing and to shape Russian domestic perceptions of Russia's relationship with China," ISW analysts note.

The report notes that Russian officials clearly identified the "root causes" of the war as an alleged violation of NATO's commitments not to advance eastward in areas near the Russian border, which indicates that the Kremlin continues to seek to impose its will and security interests on the United States and Europe and is not interested in compromising this requirement.

Key ISW findings:

• The Financial Times (FT) published an investigation on February 20 supporting ISW's long-held assessment that Russian military commanders are either complicit in or directly enabling subordinates to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in clear violation of international law.
• FT's investigation suggests that more senior Russian commanders may also be complicit in issuing orders to execute Ukrainian POWs.
• Senior Ukrainian intelligence officials reported that North Korean forces are conducting joint operations with Russian forces in the Kursk region and are gaining new combat capabilities.
• US Special Representative for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on February 20.
• The Kremlin is likely attempting to portray the People's Republic of China (PRC) as more aligned with its stance on the war in Ukraine than the PRC is willing to message publicly.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian troops recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russia is reportedly increasing its production of glide bombs and modernizing its cruise missiles.

China has declared neutrality in the Russo-Ukrainian war, avoiding public recognition of Russia as the aggressor and Ukraine as the victim of the attack and stating that it is not helping either side. At the same time, Beijing continues to provide Moscow with political and diplomatic support in its confrontation with Western powers. It has sharply increased its trade with Russia in dual-use goods, broadly enabling Russia to produce weapons and continue its aggressive war.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry noted that the country has recently seen a growing momentum for dialogue and peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and supports all efforts to achieve peace.

As a reminder, Brazilian President's Chief Foreign Policy Advisor Celso Amorim and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. They issued a joint statement on the war in Ukraine.