Russia replenishes 2024 tank losses, faces potential future challenges – ISW

In 2024, the Russians produced and repaired more than 1,500 tanks, 2,800 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and armored personnel carriers (APCs), which allowed them to compensate for last year's armored vehicle losses. However, according to experts, the Russian Federation may face a shortage of spare parts and technical difficulties in the future.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this.

According to estimates by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) of the United Kingdom, Russia compensated for all tank losses and about 75% of the losses of armored vehicles it suffered in 2024.

"IISS assessed that Russia's ongoing effort to expand the Russian military and create new units is exacerbating equipment shortages and noted that Russia may also suffer from a shortage of spare parts to refurbish tanks and armored vehicles. 

IISS assessed that it is highly likely that the Soviet-era tanks and armored vehicles remaining in Russia's stores are in a deteriorated condition, which may complicate Russia's ability to offset high equipment losses in 2025 and beyond," the ISW report says.

ISW experts note that the Russian military command is trying to balance the distribution of repaired and newly created equipment between new formations and those that have been involved in combat operations for a long time.

"Russia may struggle to adequately equip its units with materiel in the long-term if the Russian military continues to burn through Soviet-era vehicle stocks without significantly increasing Russia's ability to produce new tanks and armored vehicles," analysts say.

Key conclusions of ISW:

• Ukraine's European partners announced new military assistance to Ukraine amid the February 12 Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format) meeting.
• Russia reportedly lost just over 5,000 tanks and armored vehicles in 2024 compared with 3,000 in 2023.
• IISS noted that Russia has adapted some tactics to address ongoing equipment shortages and increasingly relies on infantry-led assaults to advance along the frontline.
• It remains unclear if Russia can repair and newly produce a sufficient number of tanks and armored vehicles to replace losses in Ukraine and equip new Russian units.
• Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) assessed that Russia is attempting to build its capabilities not only to support Russia's war effort in Ukraine but also to prepare for a potential future war with NATO. This is consistent with ISW's assessments about ongoing Russian efforts to prepare its military and society for a future conflict with NATO in the medium to long term.
• Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian energy and military infrastructure as part of an ongoing strike campaign against Russian defense-industrial enterprises.
• The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) announced on February 13 the termination of the Moldovan-Russian Intergovernmental Agreement on the establishment and functioning of Russian cultural centers in Moldova in response to ongoing reports of Russian drones violating Moldovan airspace.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Siversk.
• Russian officials continue efforts to increase recruitment for the "BARS-Bryansk" volunteer territorial defense detachment.

For reference:

It is noted that before the major invasion, the specialized publication Military Balance estimated the number of modern T-72/T-80 tanks in warehouses at about 10,000, regardless of condition.

A comparison of satellite images of these "open-air deposits" shows that they have noticeably decreased between 2021 and 2023, by some estimates up to 40 percent.

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War indicate that in 2025, the Russian Federation's economy is likely to face significant challenges related to the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions.