Russian dictator rejects compromises in war negotiations – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War, after conversations between US President Donald Trump, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as Moscow's statements, have concluded that "Putin is not interested in any compromises during the upcoming peace talks."

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this.

US President Donald Trump held bilateral telephone conversations with Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on February 12.

Trump said on February 12 that he had discussed the war in Ukraine with Putin and that they had agreed that their administrations would begin negotiations "immediately."

The Kremlin's official statement on the call states that Putin stressed the need to "address the root causes" of the war and that Putin "agreed with Trump" that "a long-term settlement can be achieved through peaceful negotiations."

"Russian officials have explicitly defined the "root causes" of the war as NATO's alleged violation of commitments not to advance eastward in areas near Russia's border, which indicates that the Kremlin remains committed to imposing its will and security interests on the United States and Europe and is not interested in compromising on this demand," the ISW report said.

The report also states that Trump confirmed his phone call with Zelensky and said they discussed the war and Zelensky's upcoming meeting with US Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference on February 14.

Zelensky said he and Trump discussed the possibilities for peace, Ukraine's willingness to work together, and Ukraine's technological capabilities, including drones. Zelensky said Trump shared details of his conversation with Putin and that he and Trump agreed to plan future bilateral meetings.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Russian Security Council deputy chairman Dmitry Medvedev both flatly rejected Zelensky's proposal to swap occupied Ukrainian territory for territory held by Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region during future peace talks.

Medvedev said it would be "nonsense" to swap Russian and Ukrainian territory, while Peskov said Russia would "never discuss" swapping its territory.

"Medvedev's and Peskov's statements further support ISW's assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin is uninterested in making any compromises during future peace negotiations and will only comply with a peace agreement that fulfills all of Putin's maximalist demands in Ukraine," ISW experts note.

Key conclusions of ISW:

• US President Donald Trump held bilateral phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on February 12.
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev explicitly rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's proposal to trade occupied Ukrainian territory for territory held by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region during future peace negotiations.
• Denmark's Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) assessed that Russia may have the capabilities to launch a full-scale war against NATO in the next five years. This is consistent with ISW's assessments of Russian efforts to restructure and prepare its military and society for a future conflict with NATO in the medium to long term.
• The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) recently launched the "Contract 18-24" voluntary recruitment program, which aims to recruit 18-—to 24-year-old Ukrainians into the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin held his first official call with Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara on February 12 since the fall of Russian-backed former Syrian President Bashar al Assad.
• The Armenian National Assembly approved a draft law in the first reading on February 12 to commence the process of joining the European Union (EU).
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kursk region and near Toretsk, and Russian troops recently advanced in the Kursk region and near Borova, Siversk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
• Russia's Shahed drone production rate may be declining.

As reported, according to the United States Department of State, President Donald Trump's special representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, will visit Germany, Belgium, and Ukraine from February 13 to 22 to discuss with allies ways to end Russia's war in Ukraine.

Moreover, President Volodymyr Zelensky said he expects Keith Kellogg and his team to visit Ukraine soon.

Recently, Trump's special envoy said that the United States already has a "good, solid plan" to end the war in Ukraine.