Russian troops face heavy losses amid slowed progress in Ukraine – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report that despite some progress by Russian troops in Ukraine, their pace of advance has slowed significantly, and losses remain critically high. In January 2025, Russian troops advanced 498 km², less than in December (593 km²).

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.

According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, in January 2025, Russian troops suffered 48,240 losses, equivalent to more than three motorized rifle divisions. This is the second month in terms of losses after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

According to ISW geolocation data, Russian troops advanced 498 square kilometers in Ukraine and the Kursk region in January, or approximately 16.1 square kilometers per day.

Also, according to American analysts, available data indicate that Russian troops suffered approximately 96 casualties per square kilometer of captured territory.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that Russian troops suffered 48,670 casualties in December 2024. This is the highest monthly rate of casualties since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia. Then, according to ISW estimates, Russian troops captured a total of 593 square kilometers in December 2024.

"The roughly 100-square-kilometer decrease in seized territory between December 2024 and January 2025, coupled with a similar monthly casualty rate, indicates that Russian forces are taking the same high level of losses despite achieving fewer territorial advances in the near term," the experts emphasized.

American analysts had already noted that Russian troops' advance slowed from November 2024 to December 2024.

"ISW previously assessed that the Russian military command likely tolerated record levels of personnel casualties from September 2024 through November 2024 to facilitate larger territorial gains, but it remains unclear whether the Russian military command will be willing to sustain such casualties if Russian forces' rate of advance continues to decline as Russian forces are advancing on more heavily defended settlements such as Pokrovsk," the experts emphasized.

ISW's key findings for February 3:

• Russian forces continued to suffer high losses in January 2025 despite a slower advance rate than in previous months in late 2024.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against Russian oil and gas infrastructure in the Volgograd and Astrakhan regions on the night of February 2 to 3.
• Ukrainian forces continue to innovate with drone operations to maintain their technological advantage over Russia and bring about battlefield effects.
• The United Nations (UN) Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) expressed concern about the "sharp rise" in reports of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
• Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated on February 3 that the country has started implementing organizational reforms to transition Ukraine's armed forces into a "corps structure."
• Unspecified actors assassinated Armen Sargsyan, the founder of the "Arbat" Special Purpose Battalion, who has been involved in Russia's hybrid activities and invasions of Ukraine since 2014.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova, and Russian troops recently advanced near Kupiansk, Borova, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and in the Dnipro direction.
• The Russian government is expanding the federal "Time of Heroes" program, which aims to install Kremlin-selected veterans into government positions to occupied Ukraine as part of long-term efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia.