Kremlin seeks to persuade Trump to meet Russian dictator’s demands – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that Moscow is attempting to pressure American leader Donald Trump into agreeing to Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin's demands, aiming to position itself as an equal to Trump on the international stage.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported this.

Experts analyzed the purpose for which the Kremlin news outlet TASS published an interview with the scientific director of the Valdai Discussion Club, Fedor Lukyanov, on January 30, entitled "Don't Count on Big Agreements," which highlights the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to shape domestic and global expectations regarding the upcoming talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.

The report specifies that the Valdai Discussion Club is a platform where Kremlin officials, Russian scholars, and foreign officials and scholars meet to discuss international issues, which is used in the Kremlin's long-standing efforts to influence Western policy in Russia's favor.

It adds that Lukyanov is a senior member and research fellow at the Valdai Club, has repeatedly moderated Putin's annual Valdai speech, and is considered an "authoritative expert" on the Kremlin's foreign policy goals and objectives. However, he does not hold any official position in the Russian government.

As noted, ISW is not prepared to assess or assert that Lukyanov has reliable information about Putin's mood or his intentions regarding future peace talks, "but Lukyanov's statements in this interview are generally consistent with statements by Putin and other Kremlin officials about Russia's future positions in the negotiations."

"TASS' decision to leverage Lukyanov's interview to dampen domestic speculation about the possibility of a peace agreement in the near future also highlights the relevance of this interview and Lukyanov's statements when considering Russia's possible negotiating positions vis-a-vis Ukraine and the United States," the ISW report states.

During the interview, Lukyanov stated that the "main issue" for future peace talks regarding Ukraine is "not the territory" but the elimination of the "root causes" of the war, which Lukyanov identified as NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe in the 1990s and early 2000s.

Lukyanov stated that, with regard to Ukrainian lands, Russian forces now believe that "everything is clear with the territories: as much as you take, so much you get," further indicating that the Kremlin has no intention of compromising on territorial occupations in Ukraine during future peace talks.

Among other things, Lukyanov stated that "Trump respects only those who demonstrate steadfastness" and urged the Kremlin to "never give up" and "be ready for a fairly tough conversation, even with elements of bluff," urging Putin to demonstrate his determination in future negotiations with Trump.

"Lukyanov's interview supports the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to force Trump into acquiescing to Putin's demands that amount to Ukraine's full capitulation and the weakening of NATO and Putin's personal efforts to position himself as Trump's equal on the international stage," ISW analysts note.

ISW key findings for January 30:

• Kremlin newswire TASS published an interview with Valdai Discussion Club Research Director Fyodor Lukyanov on January 30 titled "Don't count on big agreements. " The interview highlighted the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to shape domestic and global expectations about future negotiations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.
• Lukyanov stated during the interview that the "main thing" for future peace negotiations regarding Ukraine is "not the territories" but addressing the "root causes" of the war, which Lukyanov defined as NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe in the 1990s and early 2000s.
• Lukyanov's statements assume that Trump and his administration are weak and more susceptible to being intimidated by the Kremlin's shows of force than the former Biden Administration.
• People's Republic of China (PRC)-based companies continue to supply Russia with critical materials needed to sustain Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.
• The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted a resolution on January 28 defining its position on peace in Ukraine. This resolution closely echoes the principle of "peace through strength" that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky previously outlined.
• The US military reportedly recently transferred Patriot missiles from Israel to Poland and is expected to deliver these missiles to Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kharkiv and Pokrovsk, and Russian troops recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove and in the Dnipro direction.

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As noted by experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is demonstrating his disinterest in a negotiated ceasefire and continues to seek to destroy Ukrainian statehood.

At the same time, it is not the first time that Putin and his representatives have made statements portraying Russia as ready for negotiations to resolve the war in Ukraine, which are not taking place because Kyiv allegedly does not want them.

In reality, Putin is demanding that Kyiv refuse to join NATO and internationally recognize the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions, and Crimea as Russian territories.

On January 29, Putin said that he was ready to "allocate people" for negotiations with Ukraine to end the war but called the talks themselves "illegitimate." In response, Zelensky said that with such statements, Putin only confirmed that he was afraid of negotiations and was trying to drag out the war. According to Ukraine's head of state, Russia is doing everything possible to either continue a full-scale invasion instead of real peace or to get a pause for preparing a new aggression.