Kremlin leader sets stage for breaching future peace deals with Ukraine – ISW

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's statements about the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian authorities and possible peace agreements may be a tool to justify their violation. The Kremlin is manipulating Ukrainian legislation, creating a basis for ignoring future agreements.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this.

"Putin indicated that he will not view any peace agreement with Ukraine as binding by claiming that the Ukrainian government is either unwilling or unable to rescind the 2022 Ukrainian presidential decree banning negotiations with Putin. Putin claimed that any peace agreement that Russia and Ukraine conclude before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rescinds his 2022 decree will be invalid," analysts suggested.

ISW emphasizes that the Kremlin is creating a legal basis for ignoring future agreements and manipulating false interpretations of Ukrainian legislation.

Putin also claims that Zelensky has lost legitimacy due to the failure to hold elections in 2024 during martial law, and the Verkhovna Rada is the only legitimate body of power.

At the same time, the Kremlin is calling on it to take unconstitutional actions, which can later be used to declare this body of power also "illegitimate" to justify:

• Its demands for a complete change of the regime in Kyiv,
• Its unwillingness to negotiate with the Ukrainian authorities.

ISW analysts emphasize that such statements allow Putin to manipulate the situation and violate any peace agreements under fabricated pretexts if he believes that he can achieve his military goals.

As American experts emphasize, such statements give Putin room for manipulation. Even if agreements are reached, Russia could quickly break them by citing:

• False accusations of the agreements' invalidity,
• Or the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government.

The Kremlin has used similar tactics before, violating the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015.

"Even if Zelensky or other parts of the Ukrainian government agreed to lift the decree banning negotiations with Putin, Putin would likely violate any peace or other agreement that he reaches with Ukraine under the false justification that such agreements are "invalid" as long as he believes that he can achieve his maximalist war aims through military operations," the analysts conclude.

Key ISW findings for January 29:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Western military assistance remains vital to Ukraine's ability to maintain its defense against Russian aggression.
• Putin's longstanding theory of victory relies on the assumption that the West will abandon Ukraine. Only unwavering Western support and consistent deliveries of Western military assistance to Kyiv can force Putin to abandon his theory and accept the need to offer the concessions necessary for any resolution to the conflict acceptable to the US, Europe, and Ukraine.
• Putin indicated that he would not view any peace agreement with Ukraine as binding by claiming that the Ukrainian government is either unwilling or unable to rescind the 2022 Ukrainian presidential decree banning negotiations with Putin.
• Putin's statements rejecting the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government and of a possible future peace agreement set conditions for Russia to justify violating any future agreements with Ukraine.
• Putin continues efforts to coerce US President Donald Trump into bilateral negotiations that exclude Ukraine, impose his desired negotiations framework on Trump, and compel Trump to inadvertently endorse ongoing Russian information operations about the illegitimacy of the current Ukrainian government.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike at the Russian oil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod region. They reportedly hit a Russian arsenal in the Tver region on the night of January 28 to 29.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed in a post on January 29 that Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik is the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces commander.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kursk region and near Toretsk, and Russian troops recently advanced near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, Robotnie, and in the Dnipro direction.
• Volunteer recruitment rates in Moscow have dropped sharply as Russian citizens have grown increasingly unwilling to serve in Ukraine.

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As noted by experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is demonstrating his disinterest in a negotiated ceasefire and continues to seek to destroy Ukrainian statehood.

At the same time, it is not the first time that Putin and his representatives have made statements portraying Russia as ready for negotiations to resolve the war in Ukraine, which are not taking place because Kyiv allegedly does not want them.

In reality, Putin is demanding that Kyiv refuse to join NATO and internationally recognize the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions, and Crimea as Russian territories.

On January 29, Putin said that he was ready to "allocate people" for negotiations with Ukraine to end the war but called the talks themselves "illegitimate." In response, Zelensky said that with such statements, Putin only confirmed that he was afraid of negotiations and was trying to drag out the war. According to Ukraine's head of state, Russia is doing everything possible to either continue a full-scale invasion instead of real peace or to get a pause for preparing a new aggression.