Russia prioritizes Velyka Novosilka capture to promote battlefield superiority, undermine Western support for Ukraine – ISW

The Russian Ministry of Defense is placing significant emphasis on the capture of Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk region. This effort may be part of a strategic information campaign to project an image of Russia's battlefield superiority to Western partners and weaken international support for Ukraine.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.

According to American analysts, Russian troops have made further advances within Velyka Novosilka, despite official Russian statements that the occupiers had captured the entire settlement on January 26.

While some Russian sources have reported only a partial capture of the settlement, geolocation data indicates that Russian troops control 89% of Velyka Novosilka. They have advanced north along Tsentralna Street in the northern part of the settlement.

Some Russian bloggers have claimed that Russian troops are still clearing the village of Ukrainian forces, including the northern part, and that Ukrainian forces are still counterattacking in the area.

"The Russian Ministry of Defense notably is paying an abnormally high amount of fanfare to the claimed Russian seizure of Velyka Novosilka, very likely as part of informational efforts to shape Western perceptions of the battlefield situation in Ukraine and degrade international support for Ukraine," experts say.

Experts note that Russian gains in the western Donetsk region continue to be gradual and far below the pace that is normal for modern mechanized warfare.

"Velyka Novosilka is located next to several rivers which will likely complicate and hamper further Russian tactical advances in the area.

Russian forces have historically struggled with river crossings and tactical terrain features, such as rivers, will likely complicate Russian forces' ability to leverage the seizure of Velyka Novosilka to make operationally significant advances in the western Donetsk region," the analysts note.

ISW analysts believe that the likely capture of Velika Novosilka could become the basis for Russia to make strategic decisions about further actions:

• Continuation of the offensive: The Russian command may leave units of the Eastern Military District in the area of ​​Velyka Novosilka to further advance to the administrative borders of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
• Redeployment of troops: The capture of the village could become a point for the transfer of Eastern Military District (EMD)forces to other priority areas, such as Kupiansk, Chasiv-Yars or Pokrovsk.

"Any redeployment of EMD elements from the Velyka Novosilka area over the coming weeks will indicate the Russian military command's priority operational areas for offensive operations in Spring and Summer 2025," military experts emphasized.

According to ISW, success in Velyka Novosilka is unlikely to change the overall situation on the front due to the exhaustion of Russian units after months of intense fighting. In addition, the pace of Russian advance remains significantly slower than usual for modern mechanized warfare.

"Russian forces are currently intensifying offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Borova, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk directions and are still working to eliminate the remainder of the Ukrainian salients in the Kurakhove direction and the Kursk region," the Institute for the Study of War summarized.

Key ISW Findings for January 26:

• Russian forces recently made further advances within Velyka Novosilka amid official Russian claims that Russian forces seized the entire settlement on January 26.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense notably is paying an abnormally high amount of fanfare to the claimed Russian seizure of Velyka Novosilka, very likely as part of informational efforts to shape Western perceptions of the battlefield situation in Ukraine and degrade international support for Ukraine.
• The seizure and clearing of Velyka Novosilka will likely present opportunities and a decision point to the Russian military command on whether to redeploy elements of the Russian Eastern Military District (EMD) from the Velyka Novosilka area to other priority operational areas. Any redeployment of EMD elements from the Velyka Novosilka area over the coming weeks will indicate the Russian military command's priority operational areas for offensive operations in Spring and Summer 2025.
• Russian forces are poised to seize Toretsk in the coming days and a redeployment of elements of the EMD to reinforce the Russian force grouping in the Toretsk direction would indicate a new Russian priority effort to resume attacks in the direction of Kostiantynivka.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a second strike on the Ryazan Oil Refinery in the Ryazan region on the night of January 25 to 26.
• Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kursk region and regained positions in Toretsk.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Borova, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
• Russian military bloggers criticized the Russian government on January 25 for not prioritizing the recruitment and training of Russia's next generation of military officers.

It should be noted that the Ukrainian Defense Forces, stationed near Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk region, have strategically retreated from areas at risk of encirclement. Meanwhile, Russian forces occupying the settlement have found themselves in a "fire bag."