North Korea to deploy new troops to Russia by March 2025 amid potential 30,000-45,000 monthly casualties – ISW
Photo: Footage from the video of the 95th Separate Assault Brigade of Ukraine's armed forces
The deployment of new North Korean military units in the Russian Federation will be able to support the current pace of infantry attacks in the Kursk region. Still, these groups will suffer significant losses, which could reach 30-45 thousand killed and wounded per month.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this.
According to American analysts, North Korea plans to deploy a new military contingent in Russia by mid-March 2025. This will likely allow for the intensity of attacks in the Kursk region to be maintained.
The New York Times (NYT) reported on January 22 that a senior US defense official said that additional North Korean forces would arrive in Russia within the next two months. However, the number of troops and their status (rotation or increase in the group) remain unknown.
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff reported on December 23 that North Korea may be preparing to deploy an unspecified number of additional forces to Ukraine and military equipment to Russia, either as part of a rotation or additional troop deployment.
"ISW recently assessed that the entirety of the North Korean contingent in Russia may be killed or wounded in action by about mid-April 2025 at their current casualty rate, and a new North Korean deployment — whether intended to increase the current grouping or rotate out existing forces — is likely intended to sustain Russia's tempo of operations despite heavy losses of about 30,000 – 45,000 causalities (combined killed and wounded) per month," the experts noted.
North Korean troops reportedly trained in eastern Russia for at least a month before deploying to the Kursk region for further close-in training in November 2024 and joining combat operations by at least early December 2024.
This timeline is roughly consistent with the possibility that a new contingent of North Korean troops could be trained and replace the declining group in the Kursk region by mid-April 2025, assuming that the next reported batch of North Korean troops will train for the same amount of time as their predecessors and will deploy to Russia in late January or early February 2025.
"These fresh North Korean forces are unlikely to improve Russian operations decisively and will likely face the same high casualty rates and complications operating with Russian forces as the current North Korean contingent, provided the Russian command continues to use North Korean forces the same way as it has thus far," the ISW emphasized.
American analysts continue to assess how "North Korea's high casualty rate and interoperability difficulties with Russian forces will affect the lessons that the North Korean military command will learn from fighting in Russia's war."
For reference:
According to available information, a North Korean military contingent of up to 12,000 people is undergoing training at five training grounds of the Eastern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces. This contingent includes at least 500 officers from North Korea, including three generals from the General Staff.
The Ukrainian troops are currently engaged in active combat operations in the Kursk area, demonstrating their skill through successful missions to neutralize the enemy. They could eliminate over twenty enemy soldiers in a particular front section. On December 15, photographs of the deceased North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region were released by the Ukrainian military.
In addition, the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine's armed forces demonstrated their combat prowess by successfully eliminating North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region. The operation lasted for three days and resulted in the deaths of 50 DPRK soldiers who were fighting alongside Russia.
In addition, the Security Service of Ukraine intercepted a conversation between the Russian invaders, from which it became known that at least 200 North Korean soldiers were wounded in battles in the Kursk region.
It is worth adding that experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have drawn attention to evidence of the use of North Korean soldiers by Russian forces in offensive operations against Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region. They indicate that such tactics can significantly deplete North Korean units and affect their ability to adapt to combat conditions.
In early January, Ukrainian troops captured two North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region fighting for Russia. Despite their injuries, the prisoners were transported to Kyiv, where Ukraine's Security Service investigators are already questioning them.
Experts from the Institute for the Study of War report that North Korean troops fighting in the Kursk region are facing critically high losses. If the situation remains unchanged, the entire contingent of 12,000 soldiers could be killed or wounded by mid-April 2025.
Thus, on January 7, in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, operators of the 8th Regiment of the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine's armed forces killed 13 North Korean service members.
On January 21, in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, operators of the Special Operations Forces killed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean service members who were advancing on Ukrainian positions.
North Korean military contingent in Kursk region could be eliminated by April – ISW
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces decipher secret notes of deceased North Korean in Russia's Kursk region
Russia uses drunk North Korean fighters in Kursk region hostilities, resulting in major losses on New Year's Eve – Ukraine's intelligence
