North Korean military contingent in Kursk region could be eliminated by April – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War report that North Korean troops fighting in the Kursk region are facing critically high losses. If the situation remains unchanged, the entire contingent of 12,000 soldiers could be killed or wounded by mid-April 2025.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.

According to the report, North Korean troops have suffered approximately 92 casualties per day since their involvement in hostilities in December 2024.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in early January 2025 that 3,800 North Korean soldiers had already been killed or wounded. According to the National Intelligence Service of South Korea, as of January 13, 2025, 300 North Koreans were killed and another 2,700 were injured.

ISW analysts note that if the current rate of losses continues, the entire contingent of 12,000 North Korean soldiers could be destroyed in 12 weeks (by mid-April 2025).

"North Korean forces will likely continue to suffer a larger ratio of wounded to killed in action – as is typical for armed conflict – and it is unclear if or when injured North Korean soldiers return to combat," ISW analysts note.

Key findings

• Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in the Voronezh region and a gunpowder plant in the Tambov region on the night of January 15 to 16.
• The entire North Korean contingent of roughly 12,000 personnel currently in the Kursk region may be killed or wounded in action by mid-April 2025 should North Korean forces continue to suffer from their current high loss rate in the future.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a landmark "Centennial Partnership Agreement" on January 16, outlining Ukrainian-British cooperation for the next 100 years and continued UK support to Ukraine.
• Russian and Transnistrian authorities are reportedly discussing Russian purchases of European gas for Transnistria through an intermediary, likely to avoid having to gain various states' permission to use the TurkStream and Trans-Balkan pipelines to supply Russian gas to the pro-Russian breakaway Moldovan republic.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kursk region.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.

For reference:

The Ukrainian troops are currently engaged in active combat operations in the Kursk area, demonstrating their skill through successful missions to neutralize the enemy. They could eliminate over twenty enemy soldiers in a particular front section. On December 15, photographs of the deceased North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region were released by the Ukrainian military.

In addition, the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine's armed forces demonstrated their combat prowess by successfully eliminating North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region. The operation lasted for three days and resulted in the deaths of 50 DPRK soldiers who were fighting alongside Russia.

In addition, the Security Service of Ukraine intercepted a conversation between the Russian invaders, from which it became known that at least 200 North Korean soldiers were wounded in battles in the Kursk region.

It is worth adding that experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have drawn attention to evidence of the use of North Korean soldiers by Russian forces in offensive operations against Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region. They indicate that such tactics can significantly deplete North Korean units and affect their ability to adapt to combat conditions.

According to available information, a North Korean military contingent of up to 12,000 people is undergoing training at five training grounds of the Eastern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces. This contingent includes at least 500 officers from North Korea, including three generals from the General Staff.