Ukraine’s armed forces ramp up campaign in Russia’s Kursk region, potentially signaling new phase of operations – ISW

The Ukrainian Defense Forces seem to have escalated their attack in the Kursk region of Russia, possibly signaling a new phase in their operation. However, analysts are refraining from making any predictions about the unfolding events.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.

"Ukrainian forces recently made tactical advances amid continued intensified offensive operations in the Ukrainian salient in the Kursk region on January 6," American analysts noted.

According to experts, geolocation footage released on January 5 and 6 indicates that Ukrainian forces have recently advanced:

• in southern Berdin,
• in the central part of Russkoye Porechnoye,
• in the central part of Novosotnitsky (all northeast of Sudzha).

On January 6, the Russian Defense Ministry and Russian bloggers announced that Russian forces successfully pushed back a Ukrainian mechanized attack of about a platoon size near Berdin. They also reported that the Russian troops, including members of the "Talib" group from the Russian Guard, had successfully countered Ukrainian attacks near Novosotnitsky.

"Russian military bloggers claimed that elements of the Russian 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]), 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff's Main Directorate [GRU]), 11th Airborne (VDV) Brigade, and Akhmat Spetsnaz units cleared areas near Berdin and Novosotnitsky," ISW noted.

One Russian blogger described these Ukrainian attacks as increased intelligence, which could be a preparation for future operations or a diversionary maneuver.

"Increased Ukrainian offensive operations in Kursk Oblast may be the beginning stages of a concerted Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere in the theater, though ISW is unprepared to offer any specific forecast," the analysts specified.

In addition, ISW noted that Russian forces tried to use the Ukrainian attacks to conduct their offensives in other areas of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, but these claims remain unconfirmed.

Analysts also suggest that Ukrainian forces may continue to launch long-range strikes on Russian rear areas in the Kursk region.

"Ukrainian forces may be continuing to conduct long-range strikes against Russian rear areas in the Kursk region as part of efforts to use integrated strike capabilities to support ground operations," the experts noted.

However, ISW has not yet been able to confirm this data independently.

Key ISW findings for January 6:

• Ukrainian forces recently made tactical advances amid continued intensified offensive operations in the Ukrainian salient in the Kursk region on January 6.
• Russian forces attempted to leverage Ukrainian attacks northeast of Sudzha to attack elsewhere in the Ukrainian salient in the Kursk region on January 6.
• Ukrainian forces may continue conducting long-range strikes against Russian rear areas in the Kursk region as part of efforts to use integrated strike capabilities to support ground operations.
• Russian forces reportedly executed more Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) on January 3.
• Ukrainian Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lyubinets announced that Ukraine and Russia have reached a preliminary agreement to conduct regular POW exchanges in 2025.
• The leaders of the Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz forces and the far-right paramilitary unit "Rusich" Russian Sabotage Assault Reconnaissance Group met on January 6 and promoted a message about Russia's ethnic diversity and harmony.
• Russian forces advanced in the Lyman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk directions, and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that the Russian troops seized Kurakhove.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview published on January 5 that 3,800 North Korean personnel have been killed and wounded in the Kursk region.