Russian troops launch offensive east of Pokrovsk while Ukraine’s armed forces make gains in Kursk region – ISW

The Russian army has stepped up its offensive operations to the east of Pokrovsk, attempting to encircle the city from the northeast. Additionally, on January 5, Ukraine's armed forces resumed their offensive operations in at least three areas along the Kursk region of the front. While the defense forces have experienced some tactical victories, the Russian army is also advancing.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.

According to Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analysts, the Russian troops have focused their efforts on attempts to surround Pokrovsk.

"Russian forces began intensifying offensive operations east of Pokrovsk, and geolocated footage published on January 1 indicates that the Russian troops recently seized Vozdvyzhenka (east of Pokrovsk).

Geolocated footage published on January 5 indicates that Russian forces have likely also seized Svyrydonivka and Tymofiivka (both east of Pokrovsk) in recent days and advanced into southeastern Yelyzavetivka (south of Pokrovsk) during a platoon-sized mechanized assault," the ISW report said.

In its report, the ISW noted that Russian "military groups" claim to have consolidated Russian sabotage and reconnaissance units north of Tymofiivka and along the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Konstantynivka highway.

They also claim that Russian troops have advanced north from Vozdvyzhenka toward Baranivka, Vodiany Druhy, and Zelene Pole. However, ISW does not confirm these claims.

According to Russian sources, analysts report that Ukraine's armed forces launched multiple mechanized attacks in the Kursk region towards Berdin-Novosotnitsky direction (northeast of Sudzha). These attacks were carried out in three waves, including using approximately a company's worth of armored vehicles, totaling about a battalion.

Russian sources also claim that Ukrainian forces have intensified offensive operations in the direction of Leonidovo (southeast of Korenevo) and conducted an intensified mechanized attack in the amount of a platoon near Pushkarnoye  (east of Sudzha).

Geolocation footage from January 5 indicates that Ukraine's armed forces have advanced in the fields southwest and south of Berdin and entered the southern part of the settlement.

Russian military bloggers published updated maps of the Kursk area of operations that indicate that Ukrainian forces also occupy Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, and Mikhaylovka (all northeast of Sudzha and southwest of Berdin) as of January 5 and reported that the Ukrainian troops recently entered Novosotnitsky (just east of Berdin); and advanced in fields west of Yamskaya Step (immediately northwest of Berdin) and west of Novaya Sorochina (north of Sudzha and northwest of Berdin)

According to the Russian military commanders, Ukraine's armed forces also conducted offensive operations in the Nikopolske and Oleksandrivka areas (east and southeast of Leonidovo, respectively) and north of Russkaya Konopelka (east of Sudzha) in the direction of Pushkarnoye. However, the Russians did not provide details on possible large-scale Ukrainian actions in these areas.

For the most part, the Russian military commanders expressed concern that the resumption of Ukrainian attacks in the Kursk region could be a distraction and stated that it was too early to determine whether these operations in the region could become part of the future main effort.

At the same time, the enemy is also making progress. On the 5, Russian troops also advanced southeast of Sudzha and counterattacked Ukraine's armed forces, intensified attacks southeast of Koreneve and north of Sudzha. In particular, geolocation footage shows that Russian troops have advanced in the western and southern parts of Makhnovka (slightly southeast of Sudzha).

Key findings

• Ukrainian forces resumed offensive operations in at least three areas within the Ukrainian salient in the Kursk region and made tactical advances on January 5.
• Russian forces also advanced southeast of Sudzha and counterattacked against intensified Ukrainian attacks southeast of Korenevo and north of Sudzha on January 5.
• Russian sources expressed concern about the Russian military's ability to react to Ukraine's ongoing combined arms efforts to integrate electronic warfare (EW) and long-range strike capabilities with ground operations.
• Russian forces recently advanced east of Pokrovsk amid renewed offensive operations in the area, likely aimed at supporting the envelopment of Pokrovsk from the northeast.
• The recent intensification in the Russian 41st CAA's area of responsibility east of Pokrovsk indicates that the Russian military command is still considering the envelopment of Pokrovsk as one of their key operational objectives in this area.
• Russian forces may also be exploiting comparatively weaker Ukrainian defensive positions further east and south of Pokrovsk as part of an ongoing effort to seize any territory, regardless of such territory's relative tactical insignificance.
• Elements of the Russian 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps) are reportedly split between the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions — Russia's two most prioritized frontline sectors.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Borova, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kursk salient and regained lost positions near Chasiv Yar.

It should be noted that intensive fighting continues in Toretsk, Donetsk region, and the front line has divided the city into two parts. The Russian occupiers are using "scorched earth" tactics, destroying infrastructure and positions of the Ukrainian military.

As reported, the Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked the occupation forces in the Kursk region in several directions, which caused panic among the enemy.