ISW analysts examine Putin’s strategy to tackle “extremism” in Ukraine

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have analyzed the new strategy for countering the "extremism" of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, who is forced to please his electorate and, at the same time, balance between the federation's need for labor for its economy and army.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.

According to analysts, Putin has solidified his so-called "denazification" policy towards Ukraine through a new state strategy document focused on countering supposed extremism. This demonstrates that he is still pushing for the same demands for the removal of the Ukrainian government that he first made in 2022 during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

As reported, Putin signed a decree on a new "Strategy for Countering Extremism in the Russian Federation" on December 28.

The report indicates that Putin signed the last iteration of such a strategy in 2020.

The 2024 Strategy, for the first time, contains references to "Russophobia," which the document defines as "unfriendly, biased and hostile" attitudes and "discriminatory actions" against Russian citizens, language, and culture by states unfriendly to Russia.

"The 2024 document, unlike the 2020 version, also lists Ukraine as a main source of extremism and accuses Ukraine of disseminating neo-Nazi ideas.

The documents state that Russia needs to "eliminate" the source of extremist threats that come from Ukraine," the ISW report says.

At the same time, experts remember that in February 2022, when Putin initiated a complete invasion of Ukraine, he proclaimed that Russia was carrying out a "denazification" of Ukraine – an effort to rationalize the ousting of Ukraine's lawful, democratically elected government.

Experts add that the Russian dictator has made similar statements recently, confirming his refusal to consider compromises on his demands put forward in late 2021 and early 2022.

"The document's mentions of "Russophobia" and "discrimination" against Russian citizens, language, and culture also align with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's recent talking point that such alleged discrimination by the current Ukrainian authorities is a "root cause" of Russia's war against Ukraine that any future negotiations must address.

The Kremlin will likely exploit this new strategy document to justify its calls for the removal of the Ukrainian government as "anti-extremist" measures," the report says.

The review also notes that Putin's strategy contains points that will resonate with Russia's pro-military ultranationalist community, which is likely part of the Kremlin's efforts to appease and win over this key constituency.

The document claims that migrants in Russia are engaging in illegal activities that contribute to the spread of extremism in Russia's federal subjects.

The document calls on Russia to strengthen its migration policy, including by combating "propaganda activities" taking place in migrants' places of residence.

It also calls for educational programs in the South Caucasus and Central Asia to be adjusted to prevent the spread of Russophobia.

According to ISW, Russian far-right bloggers have continuously demanded a stricter immigration policy and voiced concerns about anti-Russian attitudes in neighboring former Soviet countries like Kazakhstan.

"ISW continues to assess that Putin must cater to his xenophobic and ultranationalist constituency – some of the staunchest supporters of Russia's war in Ukraine – while also balancing Russia's need for migrant labor for its economy and military," ISW analysts note.

For reference:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explicitly rejected two suggestions reportedly considered by US President-elect Donald Trump's team in early November 2024 as conditions for ending the war in Ukraine – the delay of Ukraine's membership in NATO for 20 years and the deployment of European peacekeepers in Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin enshrined his alleged policy of Ukrainian "denazification" in a new state strategy document about countering extremism, demonstrating how Putin continues to make the same demands for the removal of the Ukrainian government that he made in 2022 when launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev accused Russia of shooting the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger flight over the Republic of Chechnya on December 25 and of attempting to cover up Russia's responsibility for the plane's crash in Kazakhstan — effectively rejecting Russian President Vladimir Putin's lackluster apology.
• Ukrainian forces are successfully innovating to combat Russian-guided glide bomb strikes against the Kharkiv region.
• The US delivered its first liquified natural gas (LNG) shipment to Ukraine on December 27.
• Salome Zurabishvili announced her departure from the Georgian presidential palace on December 29 but stated that she considers herself to be Georgia's "legitimate" president.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar and western Zaporizhzhia.
• Russia reportedly continues to face labor shortages that Russian military recruitment and persistent demographic problems are likely exacerbating.