Russia targets Ukraine’s energy grid to spark winter crisis and influence Western support — ISW

Large-scale Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are part of a deliberate strategy to provoke an energy crisis during the winter of 2024-2025, aiming to pressure Ukraine and its Western allies into making concessions favorable to the Kremlin.

This was reported by Rubryka, citing an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to American analysts, Russia launched its most extensive assault on Ukraine's energy infrastructure since the war began during the period of December 12-13. The Ukrainian Air Force recorded a total of 287 aerial attack means used in the strikes, including:

• 94 missiles
• 193 drones

The attacks targeted several regions, including Kyiv, Odesa, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, and Ternopil. Ukraine's energy operator, DTEK, confirmed significant damage to multiple thermal power plants (TPPs), resulting in widespread power outages across the country.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that five of the nine nuclear reactors operating in Ukrainian-controlled territories were forced to reduce capacity due to the Russian strikes. However, three reactors had returned to normal operation by December 13.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia aims to leverage energy pressure to:

1. Freeze Ukraine during the winter, creating a humanitarian crisis.
2. Push Ukraine and its Western allies into negotiations favorable to the Kremlin.

"Russia's strike series targeting Ukrainian energy facilities is part of a broader campaign aimed at freezing out Ukraine in Winter 2024-2025 and compelling Ukraine and the West to self-deter into making policy decisions that benefit Russia," the ISW experts stated.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the strikes were a response to Ukraine's December 11 attack on Taganrog, Rostov region, using Western-supplied ATACMS missiles. However, analysts from ISW argue that the Kremlin had preplanned these strikes and merely used the Taganrog incident as a convenient pretext to justify their actions.

"Russian forces were likely planned to conduct such a strike regardless and are conveniently using the December 11 strike to justify ongoing Russian strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure," ISW noted.

Impact of Ukrainian strikes

Experts note that Ukrainian attacks on Russian military airfields and air defense systems in rear areas could have significant effects on Russian military operations. These impacts include:

• Reduction in Russian airstrikes
• Relocation of Russian aircraft, complicating their ability to conduct operations against Ukraine effectively.
• Weakening of Russian air defense above the occupied territories could diminish Russia's ability to protect occupied territories, potentially reducing bombing campaigns on both frontline and rear areas in Ukraine.

These developments highlight the strategic importance of Ukraine's efforts to undermine Russia's air capabilities and disrupt its military operations.

ISW key takeaways as of December 13

• Russia is evacuating elements of its force grouping in Syria while continuing negotiations with select Syrian groups about Russia's longer-term military presence in the country.
• The status of Russia's helicopter base at Qamishli in northeastern Syria remains unclear, however.
• The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on December 12 a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $500 million.
• A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted command changes within the Russian military responded to recent claims that the Russian military command removed 3rd Combined Arms Army (formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps) commander Major General Dmitry Ovcharov.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar.