Rising Russian military spending may not boost military potential but may impact war against Ukraine – ISW

According to experts at the Institute for the Study of War, the rise in Russian military expenditures does not necessarily translate to a boost in their military capabilities. Still, it could impact the Kremlin's ability to sustain the war in Ukraine.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that.

Kremlin head Vladimir Putin signed a decree on December 1 approving the federal budget for 2025 and the draft federal budget for 2026-2027.

As noted by Russian state media, the Russian government has set aside more than 40 trillion rubles for Russian budget revenues.

About 32.5% of the Russian budget was allocated for defense, which is 13.5 trillion rubles (over $145 billion). This is more than in 2024 when Russia allocated 28.3% of the budget for defense.

Both chambers of the Russian parliament also approved this budget plan.

The 2025 budget allocates about 41% of Russia's annual spending to military needs.

"ISW continues to assess that the increased Russian defense spending, while dangerous, does not necessarily equate to a one-to-one increase in Russian military capabilities, especially given that significant funding is going towards paying benefits to Russian soldiers, veterans, and their families," the report says.

ISW experts note that Russia's continued focus on military spending is likely also affecting the effectiveness and sustainability of Russian social programs, which could affect the Kremlin's ability to sustain the war in Ukraine, given the growing pressure on the Russian economy and Putin's tendency to avoid risks to the stability of his regime.

ISW key findings:

• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reportedly replaced Lieutenant General Sergei Kisel with Colonel General Alexander Chaiko, who will reprise his previous assignment as commander of the Russian Forces Grouping in Syria. However, it remains unclear how Russian operations in Syria may change.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving the 2025 federal budget and the 2026–2027 draft federal budget on December 1.
• Russian state media reported that the Russian military command appointed Colonel General Rustam Muradov as the First Deputy Commander of the Russian Ground Forces.
• The Georgian opposition continues to contest the legitimacy of Georgia's ruling Georgian Dream party's electoral victory following Georgian Dream's suspension of Georgia's European Union (EU) membership accession talks.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kursk region, and Russian troops recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Huliaipole.