Russia demands Ukraine’s surrender, rejects idea of front line “freezing” – ISW

The Russian Federation is showing that it is willing to escalate the war with Ukraine, openly rejecting any potential compromises such as freezing the front line or establishing demilitarized zones.

This is evidenced by the Kremlin's statements and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analysis of the situation.

As American analysts recall, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service director, Sergei Naryshkin, stated that the Kremlin is formally ready for negotiations but categorically rejects any "freezing" of hostilities. According to him, the only way to achieve peace is to "eliminate the reasons" that Russia uses to justify its full-scale invasion.

"Russia continues to demand Ukraine's full capitulation uncompromisingly. The Kremlin has repeatedly demanded that Ukraine relinquish areas of the four Ukrainian oblasts that the Kremlin has illegally annexed and that Russian forces do not currently occupy," the experts emphasized.

The Kremlin's essential position:

• Russia demands Ukraine's uncompromising surrender.
• The Kremlin insists on control over all of the four illegally annexed regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson), including those currently under Ukrainian control.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate that Russia may be preparing a new offensive in the southeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region. This region is not included in the illegally annexed territories, but its capture could support Russia's long-standing goal of total occupation of the Donetsk region.

Key findings:

• Russian officials continue to demonstrate that the Kremlin aims to seize more territory in Ukraine than it currently occupies and is unwilling to accept compromises or engage in good-faith negotiations, no matter who mediates such talks.
• The Russian military's rate of advance since the fall of 2024 has notably increased recently compared to its rate of advance in 2023 and the rest of 2024, but recent Western media reports comparing recent Russian gains to those at the start of Russia's full-scale invasion continue to mischaracterize the gradual and tactical nature of Russia's recent advances.
• US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby confirmed Ukraine's usage of US-provided ATACMS against Russia amid official Russian confirmation of recent Ukrainian ATACMS strikes.
• Russian forces launched a record number of drones against Ukraine on the night of November 25 to 26 as Russia continue to increase their use of decoy drones in long-range strike packages targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems.
• Russian state media reported that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) replaced former Russian Southern Military District (SMD) and Southern Grouping of Forces commander Colonel General Gennady Anashkin with Eastern Military District (EMD) acting commander Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik.
• Russian forces continue to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) amid a surge of recent Russian war crimes.
• The Russian State Duma is preparing the legal mechanisms to remove the Taliban from the Russian government's official list of banned terrorist organizations.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kreminna, and Russian troops recently advanced near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
• A Russian military blogger complained on November 25 that Russian forces often operate artillery without coordinating between different Russian elements, highlighting significant communications issues between armored vehicles and infantry units.
• Russian authorities continue incentivizing service in Ukraine through one-time payment offers, likely to avoid conducting another partial involuntary reserve call-up.