Ukrainian intelligence confirms Russia’s plans to divide Ukraine into three parts

The Russian Ministry of Defense and General Staff have developed a document forecasting the military-political situation worldwide until 2045. This document reportedly includes a plan to divide Ukraine into three parts.

Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, confirmed this information in a comment to the Interfax-Ukraine agency.

According to Skibitskyi, the GUR is aware of this document, which was previously circulated in the media. He noted that it was prepared by the Russian Ministry of Defense and the General Staff around December 2023. Skibitsky stated that the document proposes dividing Ukraine and envisions installing either a pro-Russian government in Kyiv or a "neutral" government, effectively ensuring Ukraine does not join NATO.

"This is all part of the Russians' analysis and assessments. We observe how quickly they adjust their plans based on their successes, the international community's reaction, and the development of the situation," Skibitskyi explained.

He further mentioned that some aspects of the document were presented by GUR Head Kyrylo Budanov during this year's YES meeting. According to Skibitsky, Budanov highlighted that Russia aims to "resolve" the Ukrainian issue by 2026, as outlined in the document. Budanov also indicated that Russian leaders fear that failure to achieve a decisive victory by the end of 2025 would permanently jeopardize their ambitions to position Russia as a global leader on par with the United States and China.

On November 20, Interfax-Ukraine, citing sources in Ukrainian intelligence, reported that Russia might attempt to communicate its plan for dividing Ukraine to the United States through representatives of foreign states. According to the report, the plan outlines the following divisions:

1. Territories annexed by Russia: This includes the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, along with Crimea.
2. A "pro-Russian state entity": Encompassing Kyiv as well as northern, central, and southern Ukraine.
3. "Disputed territories": The western regions of Ukraine, whose fate could be negotiated with neighboring states such as Hungary, Poland, and Romania.

War in Ukraine

In May 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the war initiated by Russia would only end when Ukraine regains its territories, ensures the return of its people, and secures peace, freedom, and the right to self-determination.

By the end of 2023, Zelensky admitted that even the commanders of the Ukrainian Armed Forces could not predict whether the war would conclude in 2024.

However, in July 2024, he expressed hope that the active phase of the war could end within the year. In August, Zelensky suggested that war with Russia might eventually be resolved through dialogue, but emphasized that Kyiv must first secure strong negotiating positions.