Ukraine possibly targets Russian troop headquarters by Storm Shadow in Kursk attack – ISW

According to military analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, the Marino estate in the Kursk region of Russia was targeted by a missile strike on Wednesday. The location is believed to be strategically positioned for setting up a command center for Russian troops in their offensive along the contact line.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.

American military experts believe that Ukraine carried out a successful combined strike on military facilities in the Russian rear on the night of November 19-20, using drones and long-range weapons provided by the West.

According to ISW, geolocation footage published on November 20 shows the consequences of a possible Storm Shadow strike near Marino, Kursk region.

Several Russian military bloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops launched up to 12 Storm Shadow missiles at the Kursk region, "fragments of which fell in Marino."

Geographical mapping of the strike footage suggests that the Ukrainian target could have been Baryatinsky Estate in Marino. According to the Ukrainian publication Defense Express, this estate housed the command post of Russian and North Korean troops operating in the Kursk region.

Currently, ISW cannot confirm this statement, but Marino is approximately 30 km from the current Kursk region salient. This distance would be an appropriate location for the operational headquarters of the troops leading the attack in that area.

It should be noted that Bloomberg reported on November 20, citing anonymous sources, that Ukrainian troops launched their first strikes on military targets on Russian territory using Storm Shadow missiles provided by the United Kingdom.

The agency does not specify when and where exactly Ukraine hit the targets with Storm Shadow. Still, earlier on Wednesday, November 20, Russian sources wrote about the use of these missiles in the Kursk region.

The Guardian portal also reports on the strike with British missiles, citing an analysis of photos of missile fragments from the Kursk region.

The UK Prime Minister's Office said it would not comment on reports of the possible use of Storm Shadow against targets on Russian territory.

Key ISW findings for November 20:

• Ukraine conducted a successful combined strike against military assets in the Russian rear on the night of November 19 to 20 using drones and Western-provided long-range weapons. The November 19 to 20 strike series indicates that Ukraine has already begun leveraging Western-provided long-range weapons systems to assemble more complex and compelling strike packages.
• Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces have been able to conduct optimized operational maneuver since Winter 2022-2023 due to legacy doctrinal and resource limitations. Still, both are learning, innovating, and adapting their respective battlefield tactics, emphasizing the current war's dynamic nature.
• The US and Germany announced additional military assistance for Ukraine on November 20.
• Ukrainian officials continue to launch investigations into Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and provide statistics on Ukrainians living under Russian captivity.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Pokrovsk, and Russian troops recently advanced near Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar and in the Kursk region.
• The Russian military command's lack of proper treatment of Russian soldiers and continued reliance on "meat assaults" is likely contributing to mass desertions.

Recently, France and Great Britain allowed Ukraine to strike deep into the territory of the Russian Federation using their SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles. The decision was made following the permission of the United States.

The Biden administration also authorized Ukraine to utilize the supplied American weaponry to target Russian territory, specifically ATACMS missiles.